ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s gross domestic product (GDP) and per capita income rose in dollar terms at a modest pace, indicating a recovery in the country’s overall output compared with the previous year, the government said on Wednesday.

It was revealed that the country’s economy is expected to grow by 3.70 per cent in the current fiscal year, a revision from earlier projections of 4pc, suggesting that Pakistan will fall short of its GDP target.

The provisional growth rates in agriculture, industry and services in FY26 are 2.89pc, 3.51pc and 4.09pc, respectively.

The 117th meeting of the National Accounts Committee (NAC) was held on Wednesday at the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics headquarters. The secretary of the Ministry of Planning and Development chaired the meeting.

GDP size hits $452bn in FY26; per capita income rises to $1,901, but living standards show little real improvement

The NAC estimate places Pakistan broadly in line with the outlook of multilateral lenders, though with some variation. The International Monetary Fund has projected Pakistan’s GDP growth at 3.6pc for FY26; the World Bank estimated 3pc; the Asian Development Bank forecast 3.5pc; while the State Bank of Pakistan has projected growth to remain close to the lower bound of the 3.75pc-4.75pc range.

The committee approved the quarterly GDP growth rates for Q1 (revised), Q2 (revised), and Q3 (provisional) for 2025-26, and the annual growth rates for 2023-24 (final), 2024-25 (revised), and 2025-26 (provisional).

The size of the economy rose to $452.1 billion in FY26 from $410.96 billion in FY25, mainly driven by growth in the services sector, followed by industry and livestock.

Per capita income slightly increased to $1,901 in FY26, the lowest in the region, up from $1,824 in FY25. The projection is on the 2023 population census.

However, it was $1,551 in FY23, $1,766 in FY22 and $1,677 in FY21.

This suggests a deterioration in the standard of living and well-being across almost all segments of society, with no tangible increase in personal incomes due to unprecedented inflationary pressures, which reduce disposable income and limit individuals’ ability to afford goods and services, save, or invest.

Meanwhile, the NAC also approved the updated growth rates for Q1 and Q2 of 2025-26 at 3.92pc and 4.05pc, compared with 3.63pc and 3.89pc, respectively, presented at the 116th meeting of the NAC.

The third quarter of FY26 recorded a 3.99pc growth in GDP. The final and revised growth rates for FY24 and FY25 are 2.62pc and 3.18pc respectively.

The agriculture sector grew modestly 0.65pc, reflecting mixed production trends. Wheat rose 4.3pc to 29.605 million tonnes from 28.396m tonnes; maize fell 2.68pc to 8.794m tonnes from 9.037m tonnes; rice rose 2.80pc to 9.998m tonnes from 9.723m tonnes; sugarcane jumped 6.20pc to 89.45m tonnes from 84.24m tonnes; and cotton shrank 0.5pc to 7.052m bales from 7.084m.

Despite a high growth of 19.74pc in the preceding fiscal year, other crops showed a growth of 2.43pc in the current fiscal year, driven by strong increases in grams (50.4pc), potatoes (27.6pc), mangoes (11.6pc), bananas (30.8pc), turmeric (25.1pc), and chillies (9.2pc). Cotton ginning and miscellaneous components registered a modest growth of 0.07pc, reflecting low cotton production.

Livestock increased by 3.75pc compared to 2.95pc, driven by a 3.46pc rise in output and a 4.5pc decrease in green fodder. Forestry and fishing experienced normal growth rates of 2.02pc and 1.66pc, respectively.

In 2025-26, the industry posted a growth of 3.51pc provisionally. Despite an increase in coal production (4.52pc), the mining and quarrying industry could expand by 0.38pc due to 2.36pc and 0.38pc declines in production of natural gas, crude oil, and other minerals.

Large-scale manufacturing, which is based on the Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM) (July-March), grew 6.11pc with mixed trends in the production of various groups mainly due to positive contribution in food (9.77pc), tobacco (11.70pc), petroleum products (10.92pc), rubber products (14.26pc), electrical equipment (11.87pc), automobiles (61.66pc), transport equipment (39.93pc), furniture (20.45pc), and other manufacturing (football) (23.06pc).

The electricity, gas and water supply industry contracted by 10.63pc, primarily due to the high base effect of FY25, i.e. +29.60pc, lower energy subsidies and slower output growth at Wapda and other companies.

Despite a high base growth of 8.77pc in the preceding year, the construction industry expanded by 5.73pc in FY26, driven by increased construction-related expenditure by the private sector and general government.

The services industry grew 4.09pc during FY26 with positive contributions from all the constituents, i.e., wholesale and retail trade (3.71pc), transport and storage (2.31pc), information and communication (7.52pc), public administration and social security (8.54pc), education (5.23pc), human health and social work (6.85pc), and other private services (3.69pc).

Published in Dawn, May 14th, 2026