US PRESIDENT Donald Trump is doing what he does best: keeping the world guessing with his puzzling declarations. He has rejected Iran’s latest proposal for peace talks, stating, “I don’t like it”. He has also threatened Iran with more strikes. He claims the ceasefire is now on “massive life support”. At the same time, he has asserted that he has achieved all his war objectives. What are we to make of such, often conflicting, statements? One thing that can be deduced from Trump’s declarations is that there is not going to be an end to one of the most consequential conflicts in recent history anytime soon.

Interestingly, Trump’s public rejection of Iran’s peace proposal reportedly followed a telephone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Speaking to an American TV channel, Netanyahu warned that the war was not over and nuclear material still had to be taken out of Iran. According to him, “If necessary, we [the US and Israel] can re-engage them [Iran] militarily”. This reinforces suspicions that Israel is not in favour of any peace talks with Iran and is pushing the American president to end the ceasefire, just as it pressed him to launch the war. The ceasefire meant to facilitate peace talks came into effect in April and has been largely observed despite exchanges of fire and reports of strikes in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively continued to block.

Meanwhile, Israel continues its bombing of Lebanon in blatant violation of the ceasefire there and is busy extending its borders. A prolonged conflict will have far-reaching implications for regional geopolitics, sharpening the divisions among Gulf countries that are directly affected by the tensions. The Gulf countries that have been closely aligned with the US seem to be divided over the growing perception that Trump is fighting Israel’s war. These countries were left vulnerable as Iran targeted American interests in the region. The divide became more apparent as some nations emphasised the need for peace talks to end the conflict. There have been significant financial and economic losses due to the dual blockade of the waterways that are critical to the global energy supply chain.

It came as a rude shock to the American president when Saudi Arabia denied the US access to its airspace and military bases within the country. Reports indicate that the Saudi crown prince was upset with Trump’s announcement that the US military would escort ships through Hormuz. Trump’s announcement had heightened tensions with Iran, which threatened to attack ships passing through the strait without Tehran’s permission. Riyadh feared that this could lead to an escalation with Iran. Saudi action reportedly forced Trump to abandon his plan.

Although Riyadh has now reversed its decisions on US overflights and the use of bases, it will not allow its territory to be used in support of the US naval operation Project Freedom — a rebuke that marks a significant shift in the kingdom’s position, especially on account of the economic devastation the region has suffered in the conflict. As recently as March, the Saudi crown prince reportedly wanted Trump to continue to bomb Iran to bring down the regime there.

Saudi Arabia is now actively supporting efforts to end the conflict through peace talks mediated by Pakistan. It is part of an alliance that includes Pakistan, Egypt and Turkiye, which is facilitating the dialogue process. Saudi officials are in touch with their Iranian counterparts. The changing stance of the kingdom — for long America’s closest ally in the region — has increased apprehensions among other Gulf countries about being drawn into a prolonged conflict.

The stalemate over the resumption of peace talks between Washington and Tehran is also a cause for concern for Saudi Arabia, as well as Qatar and Oman. American military sites in these countries have been targeted by Iran. It is evident that the US is primarily interested in protecting Israel, and the tension in ties between these countries and the US is becoming increasingly palpable.

In contrast, the conflict has brought other Gulf countries, including the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait, closer to the US. With US bases on their soil, they have borne the brunt of Iranian retaliation. The UAE, in particular, has been targeted by Iranian missiles and drones, which have had a devastating effect on its economy. As a result, it is now leaning heavily on the US and Israel — which it recognises under the Abraham Accords concluded during Trump’s first term — for its defence. The UAE’s collaboration with Israel has strengthened of late. While accusing the UAE of launching missile strikes, Iran has continued to target the country even during the ceasefire. The impact of Iranian missiles hitting civilian and business infrastructure in Dubai has been particularly significant.

Meanwhile, UAE-Saudi relations have also become strained as the two countries find themselves on opposite sides in the regional civil wars in Yemen, Sudan and Libya. The UAE’s sudden decision to exit OPEC in the middle of the US-Iran conflict has raised questions about the fragile unity of the Gulf nations, which have controlled crude oil prices for decades. Moreover, the conflict with Iran and the schism among Gulf countries have given Israel a sense of impunity regarding its aggression in Lebanon. Gaza’s rehabilitation has also been sidelined, as Israel continues to maintain control over large portions of the territory. Under the cover of the war, Israel has expedited its efforts to annex the occupied West Bank. It is not surprising that the Zionist state opposes any moves to end the war with Iran, as this conflict has dramatically altered the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East — ostensibly to its advantage.

The writer is an author and journalist.

zhussain100@yahoo.com

X: @hidhussain

Published in Dawn, May 13th, 2026