Food for thought
A PROTRACTED blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has imperilled global food security. UN Secretary-General António Guterres has warned that if the disruption continues “through mid-year”, 32 million individuals will be “pushed into poverty”. Another 45m, he said, would face extreme hunger as fertiliser stocks run low and crop yields fall. More ominously, if severe disruptions persist to the end of the year, “we confront the spectre of a global recession with dramatic impacts on people, on the economy, and on political and social stability”.
While impacts of hindered oil and gas supply were instant, repercussions of fertiliser shortages have yet to unfold. According to the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), 27 per cent of global oil exports, about 20pc of LNG trade and up to 30pc of global fertiliser exports move through the Persian Gulf. Global food supply chains are deeply linked with energy markets, maritime movement and regional stability. Fossil fuel powers tube wells, agriculture machinery, cold storage, the food-processing industry and food transport. More importantly, fertiliser has a direct bearing on grain production. The 2007-2008 global food price upheaval raised cereal prices, pushing an estimated 100m people into hunger and stoked food riots in more than 15 countries. The Russia-Ukraine war caused disruption in Black Sea shipping routes and escalated global wheat prices by 55pc in just a few weeks.
According to Signal Group, a shipping services company, 20pc of the world’s fertiliser originates in the Gulf, while the region supplies 46pc of urea. The Qatar Fertiliser Company alone supplies 14pc of the world’s urea. After Qatar’s LNG facilities came under attack, Qatar Energy ceased its output. Consequently, the world’s largest urea plant also halted operations. The LNG crisis led India to curtail output in three of its own urea plants. Bangladesh also shut four of its five fertiliser factories.
In a catastrophic move, China, the world’s largest fertiliser producer, banned fertiliser exports in March to meet its domestic needs. The impact of the ban can be gauged from the fact that last year, China contributed 25pc of the global output of fertiliser and exported more than $13 billion of this critical agri-input. Several countries, including Vietnam, Myanmar, Pakistan, Bangladesh, the Philippines and Indonesia, import substantial quantities of their fertiliser from China. According to IFPRI, “the combined effect of China’s export ban and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will inevitably rattle the global fertiliser market and food security”.
Market volatility due to fuel costs will inflate fertiliser rates.
The problem of fertiliser shortfall is compounded by spiralling shipping costs. The rate for a 40-foot (around 12 metres) container for the West Coast India-Middle East route, was assessed at $3,400 — representing a 1,136pc price increase over the original amount — within two weeks after the war.
Asian countries are likely to encounter a menacing situation as they receive 35pc of Gulf urea exports — 53pc sulphur and 64pc ammonia. The Gulf’s fertiliser exports are vital for India, Brazil, China, Morocco, the US, Australia and Indonesia. India, contributing about 40pc of world’s rice exports, relies heavily on the Middle East for inputs, importing more than 40pc of its urea and phosphate fertilisers from the region. Brazil, which exports about 60pc of the world’s soyabean, almost entirely depends on imported fertiliser. It receives nearly half of its fertiliser imports through the Strait of Hormuz.
A shortfall in rice supply seems inevitable this year as the planting acreage is set to decline across Asia because of the fertiliser deficit and soaring fuel costs. Indonesia estimates its rice harvest area will shrink by 10.6pc. Additionally, the El Niño weather system has been predicted in the region, which is likely to create hotter and drier conditions in the latter half of the year.
Pakistan has sufficient fertiliser stocks for this kharif season, yet market volatility due to fuel costs is bound to inflate fertiliser prices. Pakistan is among the world’s 10 most food-insecure countries according to a recent UN-backed global report on food crises. The report bracketed Pakistan with Afghanistan, Bangladesh, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Myanmar, Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan, Syria and Yemen as hotspots of acute hunger. The country’s farm output suffered colossal losses due to the devastating floods of 2022 and 2025. Pakistan received sufficient early summer rains this year that has increased water levels in its reservoirs. However, any baffling twist in the monsoons can negatively affect crop output and trigger food deficiency in the country.
The writer is senior adviser on water governance at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute.
Published in Dawn, May 5th, 2026