• Govt revises capacity generation expansion plan to meet economic growth
• Fresh IGCEP focuses on renewables and hydropower

ISLAMABAD: The government has projected additional power generation capacity needs of 62,660 to 70,720 megawatts (MW) by 2035 to support the country’s economic growth of 3.5 per cent (low) to 6.4pc (high).

This is part of the revised Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2025-35 and the Transmission System Expansion Plan (TSEP) 2025-35 prepared by the Independent System and Market Operator (ISMO), a Power Division entity, in consultation with all relevant stakeholders, including the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra).

The two plans cover the entire power network, including Discos and K-Electric. A distinguishing feature of the revised IGCEP is the consideration of Least Cost Violation (LCV) for Diamer-Bhasha Dam, and the Saudi-based ACWA’s solar power plants.

The revised plan covers a 10-year timeframe, encapsulating power generation additions required to meet the country’s future energy and power demand, including the National Grid Company and KE systems.

Three scenarios of long-term load forecasts were prepared, including low (business as usual), medium and high, at gross domestic product (GDP) growth projections of 3.52pc, 4.95pc and 6.37pc for the next 10 years, respectively.

The results showed a shift in the energy mix from imported fuels to indigenous ones, with a dominant share of renewables and hydropower. The reference rationalised scenario showed a major contribution from renewables, ie 34pc hydropower and 27pc variable renewable energy in the overall capacity mix by 2035.

There is minimal reliance on imported fuels, with residual furnace oil having no contribution at all to the capacity mix, whereas imported coal and RLNG contribute just 7pc and 13pc to total capacity requirements, respectively. The share of indigenous fuels stands at 15pc, ie 5.2pc local coal, 2.6pc local gas and 7.5pc nuclear in the overall capacity mix.

As such, capacity addition in the low-growth case has been projected at 62,657MW, followed by 66,459MW for medium growth and 70,720MW for high growth (6.4pc). In all cases, generation capacity expansion has been estimated at 4,680MW for imported coal, 3,300MW for local coal, 8,224MW for LNG, 1,433MW for local gas, 4,730MW for nuclear, 21,400MW for hydropower, 819MW for furnace oil and 400MW for bagasse-based plants.

Solar power capacity expansion has been projected at 11,544MW for low GDP growth and 13,200MW for high growth. Wind-based generation is the only area where capacity expansion has been kept variable at 5,133MW for low GDP growth, 8,935MW for medium and 11,500MW for high GDP growth.

Published in Dawn, April 24th, 2026