On the 13th day of the US-Israel war against Iran, the conflict appeared to be entering a more volatile phase in which the battlefield could gradually extend beyond conventional air and missile exchanges into attempts to weaken Iran from within; the maritime confrontation in the Gulf continued to tighten pressure on global energy markets and reinforce the centrality of oil flows in shaping the strategic calculations of the belligerents.

Reports circulating among Iranian observers and security analysts suggested that Washington and Tel Aviv may now be testing a strategy aimed at fomenting internal dissent while maintaining external military pressure, with recent drone strikes on Basij security infrastructure inside Tehran. This was widely interpreted as an attempt to erode the regime’s internal control mechanisms and probe whether domestic instability could complement the ongoing military campaign.

The approach bears resemblance to the strategy pursued during the 12-day war of June 2025 when provoking an internal uprising formed a core pillar of Israeli planning, with precision strikes and coordinated information operations designed to fracture regime cohesion and trigger street-level dissent. That attempt had then failed to generate the expected cascade of unrest.

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