FOR 65 years, the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) survived on false perceptions. These perceptions endured multiple wars, yet could not outlast the ignorance they themselves created — a veil that has separated a billion‑strong regional population from reality for more than half a century.

After the signing of the treaty, Pakistanis were told that without it India would have diverted all the Indus basin water, turning Pakistan into a desert, so the treaty ‘saved’ them. On the Indian side, the narrative was that Pakistan received 80 per cent of the Indus waters, while India, the larger nation, got only 20pc. Both countries were led to believe that without the treaty India could have taken far more water and that the IWT was a massive favour to Pakistan. And now, we have Narendra Modi, himself a victim of this perception, who’s decided to teach Pakistan a ‘lesson’ by breaching the treaty. What lesson? First, a reality check.

Transboundary water treaties exist mainly to protect lower riparian states’ rights to current water use, ecological services tied to natural flow regimes and water quality. In essence, they shield downstream nations from excessive upstream diversions, dam construction and pollution.

Given the rugged Karakoram and Himalayan terrain from which the Indus and its tributaries flow into Pakistan, it is engineering‑wise and economically impractical for India to divert most of the basin’s water away from Pakistan. Only the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej — contributing to some 20pc of the total Indus flows — run through Indian Punjab before entering Pakistan and hence could be feasibly diverted.

The IWT enabled the upper riparian to execute diversions.

The IWT permitted the full diversion of the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej, even though Pakistan held a solid legal claim of ‘existing use’ on those waters. It made no provision for any downstream environmental flow. By relinquishing its existing‑use rights and allowing the rivers to be completely shut off, Pakistan effectively condemned the downstream ecosystem to death.

On the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab, which can’t be diverted, India was permitted to construct an unlimited number of hydropower dams, subject only to certain conditions, with no treaty clause to curb their cumulative effect. Hence, Pakistan endures river fragmentation, loss of life‑sustaining silt flow to the Indus delta, seawater intrusion and delta degradation since the treaty’s implementation.

In short, rather than protecting the lower riparian, the IWT enabled the upper riparian to execute diversions disregarding existing use, build an unlimited number of upstream dams and discharge unlimited pollution downstream.

Lawyers may view the treaty as balanced, allowing both parties to discharge flood and “other excess waters” (pollution) into the Ravi and Sutlej while waiving liability for any resulting damage. Yet water flows downhill; geography shows who’s upstream. But the IWT omits this, and lawyers seem oblivious to the fact. Bureaucrats focus solely on procedural details, ignoring how each clause actually plays out on the ground; they treat degrading river ecology, a receding Indus delta and upstream pollution as outside their remit, although they advise decision‑makers.

Meanwhile, NGOs and the climate change ministry chase funding to restore damaged rivers and delta without recognising the treaty’s role in creating those problems. River pollution has entered the food chain, leaving children with birth defects, stunting and disease; their schools teach neither the treaty nor the geo­­graphy that makes them sick.

Now the lessons. All deceptions have a lifespan. Some fade quietly, others die violently. Modi’s bre­ach of the IWT shattered the myths surrounding it and exp­­osed its disregard for human rights, ecological integrity and the Indus basin’s environmental health. The sooner it is removed, the better for the basin’s people. The breach of the treaty has laid bare its flaws, forcing Pakistanis, especially its decision‑makers, to confront why the IWT was created, how it was formed, what truly occurred, and what else happened. To grasp the ills, possible remedies and a future course, the government must assemble experts from history, international relations, the political and social sciences, economics, diplomacy, law, bureaucracy, health, human rights, geography, geology, hydrology, environment, climate, indigenous knowledge, engineering, finance etc.

Only by engaging a full spectrum of expertise and stakeholders can Pakistan craft a sustainable business case for the Indus basin that secures its water, protects its environment and safeguards the health and well‑being of current and future generations.

The writer is an expert on hydrology and water resources.

Published in Dawn, March 6th, 2026