Iranian nights
ROUTINE predictions about the impending demise of Iran’s repressive theocracy over the past couple of decades tended to be little more than wishful thinking. Could it be different this time?
The protests were triggered after the merchants in Tehran’s bazaar went on strike following a precipitous plunge in the value of a currency that was already in free fall. The same segment had spearheaded the popular mobilisation that toppled the Pahlavi dynasty in 1979. The merchants remained reliable supporters of the successors until early this century, when the economic clout of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its subsidiaries became paramount. Western sanctions have been complicit in Iran’s economic decline, but the role of ideological restructuring and corruption cannot be discounted.
As the protests against economic woes burgeoned, the initial response from President Masoud Pezeshkian was relatively empathetic. He offered dialogue, and a $7 monthly deposit for most citizens. That doesn’t add up to much in the face of rampaging inflation. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also makes a distinction between protesters and rioters, implying tolerance for the former and no mercy for those setting government buildings and mosques ablaze, or returning fire when confronted by security forces.
There have been reports of overwhelmed hospitals and mortuaries, and estimates of fatalities range from hundreds to several thousand. The figures, including those for mass arrests, remain unverified, partly because of an internet blackout, but Reuters quotes an Iranian security official as acknowledging 2,000 deaths on both sides — which suggests the actual toll is likely to be even higher.
All this adds to the impression of a flailing regime faced with yet another existential challenge. The viciousness of its response against those chanting anti-regime or pro-Reza Pahalvi slogans has to some extent been facilitated by Israeli and American provocations.
The last Shah’s US-based son is known as effectively an Israeli agent. The extent of his support within Iran is uncertain, but is nowhere close to a majority. His current prominence is partly due to the lack of leadership among Iranian opposition forces, but arguably owes much more to an Israeli influence operation that, according to Haaretz, was launched in 2023 but weaponised last year ahead of the Israeli-US air war against Iran in June. An Iranian analyst has been quoted as saying, “The monarchist slogan is not a declaration of love for Pahlavi; it is a declaration of disgust” for the regime. That makes sense.
Western analyses of the crisis invariably fail to note that tyranny did not suddenly descend on the nation in 1979. Rather, it was ensconced in the wake of an Anglo-American regime change operation in 1953 that put paid to democracy and restored Mohammad Reza Pahlavi to the Peacock Throne after he had fled abroad. The consequence was monarchical absolutism — which included close collaboration with Israel on various fronts, not least between the intelligence agencies Savak and Mossad. More surprisingly, Israeli-Iranian links persisted beyond 1979, with weapons purchased from Israel helping Iran to stave off the Iraqi aggression initially backed by much of the Arab world. As Trita Parsi writes in Treacherous Alliance, it wasn’t until the 1990s that the relationship irreparably fell apart, and the Israeli leadership began to perceive Iran as its biggest regional enemy rather than as a natural non-Arab ally.
After many years of failing to persuade the US to jointly assault Iran, Israel last June launched an attack that included targeted assassinations of the military hierarchy. Donald Trump chipped in with a previously unused variety of bunker-buster bombs, subsequently claiming to have obliterated Iran’s nuclear facilities while also alleging to have brought peace. If the regime survives, it will double down on manufacturing a deterrent.
The US president threatened more violence if Tehran killed protesters, but might have had second thoughts. He’s thrilled with the kidnapping in Caracas and on Monday reposted a meme describing him as the acting president of Venezuela, notwithstanding the State Department’s advice to US citizens in that country to lie low or get out of there. A strategy that not quite succeeded in Venezuela can hardly be replicated in a very different country with more than three times the population.
The crocodile tears in this instance of those who have been applauding the Gaza genocide are not just worthless but obnoxious. The Iranians who have been venting their rage by night undoubtedly deserve a brighter tomorrow, but any dawn engineered by the US and Israel will entail bitter sorrow. Any enduring solution would involve rejecting international intervention as well as the regime.
Published in Dawn, January 14th, 2026