MEGA worries
WITH political tensions mounting at home, few are likely following developments in Europe. According to a new National Security Strategy released by the US White House, Europe is threatened by nothing less than “civilisational erasure”. But Islamabad shouldn’t write it off just yet. Instead, it should consider how it will navigate growing US-EU tensions given the implications for Pakistan’s economy and security.
The new US security strategy is the first to lay out the Trump administration’s approach to geopolitics. It highlights concern for the future of the “Western hemisphere” and “Western identity”, fearing that European countries may have majority non-European populations in the next few decades due to falling domestic birth rates and migration. It also despairs at the prospects for Europe’s economic growth and defence capacity.
Most alarming to the centrist parties ruling European countries, it celebrates the growing influence of “patriotic European parties”, signalling more US support to come for far-right parties such as Germany’s AfD and France’s National Rally. Alarmed Europeans have interpreted the strategy as a not-so-subtle call for Europe’s far right to ‘Make Europe Great Again’ (MEGA, if you will).
A MEGA movement may seem like a distant concern for Pakistan. But the ripple effect could be significant. Pakistan and the EU have been bolstering ties since 2019, starting with the signing of a Strategic Engagement Plan. Improved trade, investment, security and climate change cooperation were lauded at last month’s EU-Pakistan Strategic Dialogue. A right-leaning Europe may feel differently. MEGA governments may have economic protectionist tendencies that would sit uncomfortably with the current GSP-Plus scheme, which provides emerging economies access to Europe’s markets in exchange for commitments to human rights and environmental protection. Reluctance to import could have notable economic effects at home given that Pakistan is the largest beneficiary of GSP-Plus and the EU is its second-most important trade partner. When the scheme expires in 2027, it could be renegotiated by right-wing governments with less generous outlooks.
Climate change responsiveness would be another affected area. Centrist European parties are not climate change deniers like President Donald Trump’s Republican Party, and Europe has provided support to Pakistan to tackle climate-related disasters. Europe and Pakistan have also engaged on climate and transition finance and European technology transfer in renewable energy. These pools of climate finance may dry up if MEGA presents the same climate scepticism as MAGA.
Rise of the European far right should concern Pakistan.
A more racist, anti-migration Europe would also exacerbate the plight of Pakistani migrants. Research by the Mixed Migration Centre notes that illegal immigration from Pakistan to the EU has been increasing due to conflict, the stifling of basic rights and economic insecurity. Europe’s current approach to migration is to create more legal pathways, and to address the root causes driving illegal migration. But a MEGA Europe may echo Trump’s ‘build a wall’ mentality, pushing harsher, securitised measures against illegal migrants. This means more suffering for desperate Pakistanis plus a rollback of broader support for Pakistan’s economy.
A far-right-dominated Europe is also likely to be more pro-India. After Pahalgam, the EU took a balanced stance towards Pakistan and India, calling for an end to the escalating conflict. A MEGA approach would be driven by several self-serving positions. The first is, of course, economic. India is a market Europe covets (Brussels is in the final stages of agreeing an FTA with New Delhi). In a MEGA world, the emphasis would fall on defence supply. And nowadays, where the arms go, diplomacy follows.
A more right-leaning Europe would also seek to cultivate India as a counter to China. Today’s centrist Europe has concerns about Beijing’s economic intentions resulting from Beijing’s use of state subsidies and overproduction to dominate European markets. But Brussels takes a softer stance towards Beijing than Washington, driven by its recognition of China’s growing influence and the criticality of the Chinese supply chain to the green transition that Europe is prioritising.
MEGA politics are likely to be more hostile towards China — and by extension its allies. A far-right EU would prop up those countries willing to deploy imported European defence technologies against China if needed. In other words, a far-right Europe would probably be a pro-India bloc.
For these reasons, Pakistan should closely monitor America’s support for the European far-right, and plan for a future in which a MEGA movement could undermine its economy and security vis-à-vis Europe.
The writer is a political and integrity risk analyst.
X: @humayusuf
Published in Dawn, December 8th, 2025