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Published 15 Nov, 2025 05:45am

The known unknown

SCAMS are circulating and evolving constantly. There is always something to look out for and, since this is 2025, if you thought this op-ed is about a new breed of schemes enabled by AI (of which there are plenty), you are mistaken. In fact, this is about the opposite: A scam advocating against intelligence. I am referring to a breed of influencers on various short and long-form video blogging platforms that are advocating against higher education, of which there is now also a domestic, ie, Pakistani crop.

I do not begrudge anyone an opinion they might hold. If anyone genuinely believes young people in this country, or anywhere in the world, are better off with less education and that will give them a better chance at achieving their personal vision of what a successful life looks like, they are welcome to it.

But, if someone rails against higher education only to bend the arc of their argument towards the conclusion that viewers should buy a months-long course they are selling, billing it as a shortcut to success, then the difference between such influencers and phone-banking scammers that relieve ordinary people of their savings is just a matter of degrees (pun intended).

I want to be clear though: this is not a full-throated defence of all Pakistani universities the way they are today. I have been quite vocal in my critique of many aspects of how the higher education sector operates, especially the quality of degree programmes, and I stand by it. But even a mediocre degree programme navigated with mission and purpose is better than foregoing university entirely.

Anything someone without a degree and/or some Massive Open Online Courses/ short courses and life experience earned from banging against walls can do, a person with a degree (and maybe also some MOOCs/ short courses) and life experience can do better. Higher education and experience gained from trying things are not mutually exclusive. A university education only becomes a hindrance if it gives someone the idea that it makes them too good for some kind of work.

Even a mediocre degree programme navigated with mission and purpose is better than foregoing university entirely.

In Pakistan, a 2025 Pakistan Institute of Development Economics study estimated that the economic rate of return on investment in education generally increases with higher levels of education, and more so for women. For a Bachelor’s degree, it is 11.5 per cent, going up to 17pc, 18pc and 19pc for degrees in engineering and PhD programmes, and medical degrees, respectively.

Like a lot of trends and opinions, this one too is imported from the West. The late Charlie Kirk, with his slogan ‘College is a scam’, was one of them, joined by other prominent conservative influencers, including Matt Walsh, Christopher Rufo, and, of course, ex-convict Andrew Tate.

Many American influencers holding these views and taking aim at higher education hold similarly conservative worldviews that see colleges as elitist, bureaucratic and corrupt, with outdated curricula and teaching methods, disconnected from the job market, and places that indoctrinate students with liberal, progressive culture.

Where the reasoning of these Western anti-college and our homegrown influencers’ arguments find common ground is the claim that college has become too expensive for the value and opportunities it provides.

There is no question that the cost of attending a degree programme has risen both at home and abroad. A quick search will yield many articles and posts arguing both sides, ie, that college is no longer worth it, or that it is still worth it.

Earlier this year, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that while higher education is becoming more expensive, the benefits for those with a degree over those without one remain, even after factoring in income forgone by not working while attending college (‘College is worth the money for most graduates, new Fed research finds’, CNBC, April 18, 2025). The median total cost of college rose from $140,000 to $180,000 in 2024, but the median rate of return remains a healthy 12.5pc. Viewed another way, the median annual earnings of college-educated workers stand at $80,000, compared to $47,000 for high-school graduates.

A National Bureau of Economic Research study shows the pay gap between workers with and without college degrees widens over the course of working lives, from 27pc at age 25 to 60pc by age 55. Unsurprisingly, returns vary by discipline, with engineering, computer science, and mathematics enjoying the highest returns.

It is hard to argue against statistics. In a debate on this issue, sooner or later, you will have someone dragging out the three famous college dropout billionaires — Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, and Mark Zuckerberg — to support the argument that a college degree is not necessary for success. True, but statistically, the odds are heavily in favour of the college educated. One could even add a few more current and past well-known names to this list — Michael Dell (Dell Technologies), Jack Dorsey (Twitter), and Richard Branson (Virgin Group). But that does not change the bigger picture. As of 2023, among current Fortune 500 CEOs, the number of those without a college degree is in the low single digits.

In Pakistan, degrees are a prerequisite for better opportunities — there are only so many things you can do without one. Of course, a university degree does not guarantee any outcomes with certainty, but if you are a young person in this country trying to start life as an adult, you will always have better odds with more education than less, and data seems to bear that out.

Finally, high achievement in a degree progr­a­mme — even a mediocre one — signals that a person can pursue a long-term goal, staying focused, motivated, and apply themselves, not only in a short burst, but over an extended period. These are desirable traits for a team member pursuing any task. Any one individual’s future is unknown, but what we know statistically about this unknown is that having an education, even a mediocre one, is better preparation for the future than none.

The writer has a PhD in education.

Published in Dawn, November 15th, 2025

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