Taliban’s new ploy
THE Afghan Taliban regime is living under an illusion. Visiting India, its interim foreign minister recently stated that Afghanistan had defeated the British, the Soviets and the Americans. No, they had not. The Afghan rulers of the time were decisively defeated in the second Anglo-Afghan war (1878-80) by the British, enabling the latter to effectively make Afghanistan a buffer zone in the Great Game between the Raj and the Russian empire. Abdul Rahman Khan accepted the Durand Line as the border with British India, which was endorsed by subsequent Afghan rulers. As for the Soviets, it was the concerted effort by the US and Pakistan that pushed them out and rescued the Afghan people in the 1980s. America’s presence in Afghanistan since 2001 also ended only when the US itself decided to exit in August 2021 because of American public opinion turning against distant wars and the strategic depth the Taliban had received in Pakistan.
For over four years now, the world has expected the Taliban to honour their commitments under the 2020 Doha peace accord with the US. However, they have violated all three promises: forming a true representative government, respecting women’s rights, and not allowing terrorist entities on Afghan soil.
With Pakistan, the Taliban have adopted a particularly hostile attitude, having lately embarked upon a two-pronged manoeuvre. The first prong is teaming up with India to not only benefit from Indian investments in healthcare, education and infrastructure, but to also doubly squeeze Pakistan under the mistaken belief that Pakistan’s enemy is their friend. For its part, India, which has severely criticised Taliban in the past, has reversed its policy in order to leverage the Taliban against Pakistan, just as the Taliban are leveraging it against Pakistan. India hopes to wean the Taliban further away from Pakistan and even China.
The second prong is an upsurge in the Taliban’s kinetic aggression to destabilise the Pak-Afghan border (Oct 11-12, 2025) while ignoring Pakistan’s consistent protests against the Taliban’s support to the TTP (and other anti-Pakistan elements) who have killed children and other innocent civilians in Pakistan. For now, Pakistan has repulsed the assaults and inflicted heavy losses on the Taliban forces and their TTP associates. However, it is evident that the Taliban won’t heed Pakistan’s advice to not allow terrorist elements on their soil. Instead, the Afghan leadership tends to shift the burden of any action to Pakistan, arguing that these terrorists should be handled inside this country. The Taliban media is also spreading disinformation, taking a leaf out of the Indian media’s playbook.
Why are the Taliban inimical towards Pakistan?
Why are the Taliban so ungrateful and inimical towards Pakistan? It appears that they are trying to be nationalist in order to garner support from the wider Afghan society. Perhaps they wish to give the impression that they aren’t under Pakistan’s influence. They are hosting the TTP probably as a leverage against Pakistan. In doing all this, they are overestimating their power potential, and may be in for a rude shock. It would be prudent for them not to underestimate Pakistan’s resolve to defend its borders and defeat Taliban-backed terrorists.
How should Pakistan deal with the Taliban? Several steps can be considered in the immediate term: One, Pakistan should maintain its robust defence at the borders with Afghanistan (and India). Only strength can deter aggression. Two, it should send a clear message to Kabul that the doors for dialogue are open, provided the Taliban firmly commit to ending their support to the TTP. If they do not commit to that, then kinetic options would remain on the table. Three, Pakistan must keep up the pressure on the Taliban through diplomatic outreach to Saudi Arabia (now a partner in mutual defence), China, Russia, Iran, the Central Asian Republics, Turkiye, the UAE and America. Given the Taliban’s past association with Al Qaeda, the global community would not want to see the Taliban hosting terrorist entities again. Pakistan should also register its complaints in the UN under the UNSCR 1988 (1267) sanctions regime.
In the medium term, Pakistan should develop a nationwide consensus on a review of its previously generous policies regarding Afghan refugees, scholarships for Afghan students, special desks in its hospitals for Afghans, collecting custom duties on transit trade through Pakistani ports, and media outreach to Afghan society. Experts could be invited to suggest doable measures. In the long term, an effort could be mounted to win the hearts and minds of our nationals living in the erstwhile Fata region bordering Afghanistan through development work. They are the first line of defence against terrorism from Afghanistan.
The writer is chairman, Sanober Institute, and former foreign secretary of Pakistan.
Published in Dawn, October 19th, 2025