• Marka-i-Haq re-calibrated security diplomatic balance in region, Ahsan Iqbal tells security conference
• Israeli attack on Qatar punctured security umbrella of US: ex-foreign secretary
• Post-Modi transition has begun in India, says Mushahid Hussain Sayed

KARACHI: An insightful session on the challenges in the region held at the 25th Management Association of Pakistan Convention on ‘Leading Change: Vision to Excellence’ at a local hotel in collaboration with the Pakistan Institute of International Affairs (PIIA) dwelled deep into the topic of ‘The Great Alignment Securing Pakistan’s Future in a Shifting Gulf and South Asia’ on Thursday.

Speaking to the audience at a session moderated by DawnMedia Group CEO Hameed Haroon, Federal Minister for Planning Development and Special Initiatives Ahsan Iqbal said that the world is going through an unprecedented change. “The only certainty in this world is uncertainty. The traditional alliances are becoming more fluid as we have seen in the context of Europe and interests are becoming more transactional as we see the new doctrine of tariff-based diplomacy,” he said.

“If we look at a region, the Middle East has been marred with conflicts for some time. But recently, South Asia and Central Asia have also been sucked into this politics of conflict and geopolitical tensions. We have in the recent past seen war on our eastern border, which was a direct attack on Pakistan by India in May. Then on our western borders, we saw a war between Israel and Iran. We have Afghanistan which is also a boiling pot from where we see terrorism creeping into our western borders. Simultaneously, we also saw the Gulf Cooperation Council for the first time getting bogged down into conflict with Israel’s attack on Qatar. So this whole region is becoming very conflict-prone and unstable. As a result, it is important for countries like Pakistan to find a path and strategy that will navigate it through maintaining stability and peace and not compromising its national interests. So I would say that what the government of Pakistan has chosen is to pursue a proactive principled pragmatism policy that will steer Pakistan through this turmoil where we want to achieve not only our economic objectives but also safeguard our sovereignty.

“Instead of having binary alignments, Pakistan has chosen a strategy of having the best of best relations with China along with the recent developments with the United States. We have developed strong cooperation and relationships there, too. Likewise, we have the closest relationship with our western neighbour Iran and with Saudi Arabia with which we have signed a mutual defence agreement. So this actually shows that Pakistan has been able to, very pragmatically, advance its foreign policy objectives.

“In the process Pakistan has also earned respect by becoming a member of the security council and conducting itself very responsibly in the recent conflicts which have happened in our region and the Middle East. Pakistan also emerged on the global landscape after a long time by hosting the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in 2024, which brought senior members from SCO member countries to Pakistan. This recent chain of events can be attributed to a defining moment of Marka-i-Haq that has re-calibrated the security diplomatic balance in South Asia.

Journalist Najam Sethi said that the notion of a singular world being replaced by a multilateral world order is concerning. “Yes, I do see the beginnings or stirrings of something like this but it will take a long time before it comes to fruition. Therefore, to pin your hopes on multilateralism at this stage is a little misplaced,” he said.

“No great transitions take place in the world order without violence, wars, bloodshed and without the hegemon fighting tooth and nail to retain their positions. So therefore to expect that this process will be smooth or peaceful is not correct. We should expect more turmoil, we should expect more wars, we should expect more contests and it will be a very difficult transition that is now beginning to shape up. Unfortunately, we are confronted with a man like Donald Trump at a time when this transition is taking place and Trump is unpredictable. He can turn on friends and allies as easily as enemies. So to pin any hope in terms of his promises or actions would be foolhardy.

“What is happening in the Middle East is not going to find a solution easily. The fact of the matter is that this is an Israeli plan and it is exactly what Israel wanted. So belief in the great process of peace is misplaced. As soon as the hostages are released Israel will get back to its genocide,” he pointed out.

Speaking about the situation in the Gulf and South Asia, former foreign secretary of Pakistan Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry said that both Israel and India are seeking dominance in their respective regions. “Both have also opted for use of force against their opponents and against their neighbours. Most importantly, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are both discovering the limits of what they can do by use of force.

“I can see that for Israel the attack on Qatar was pushing the envelope a bit too far because it punctured the security umbrella the US had provided to these countries for decades. In the case of South Asia, Modi miscalculated thinking that Pakistan was politically divided, economically weak and militarily lacked the fuel for its stance as it invaded Pakistan in May only to discover that Pakistan could defend itself quite robustly. It was a reality check that Modi and his colleagues were not expecting,” he said.

“So where do the two regions go from here? In the case of South Asia, the statements coming out of India’s political and military leaders represent a frustration that they have suffered during the 2025 confrontation. The question now is will India engage in another round of confrontation with Pakistan? Some feel that given the forthcoming elections in Bihar, Modi is under pressure because he has always won elections on the basis of anti-Pakistan and anti-Muslim vote. To avenge the humiliation that he and his party suffered. If he loses the Bihar elections he might end up on a slippery slope of losing the future elections. To that extent he might want to do something, perhaps something mischievous like a false flag or a military confrontation.

“But I personally feel that India is not in a position to enter into another major military confrontation at this time because its air force which met a rude surprise is not yet in a position to attack again. Also the Pakistani and Saudi Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement has provided a strategic depth for Pakistan against India and depth to Saudi Arabia against Israel. It is not that if Pakistan and India fight another war, Saudi Arabia will stand shoulder-shoulder with us. Far from it, this agreement is actually a deterrent enhancement. India might find it more costly this time around to attack Pakistan knowing that the Saudis and other Gulf countries might not remain silent this time.”

Journalist and politician Mushahid Hussain Syed said that Pakistan should be very clear about its relationship with China and the United States.

“With China our relationship is strategic and solid because China has stood by Pakistan like a rock on all issues at all times just as Pakistan has supported all the core interests of China. Conversely, our relationship with the United States, well, our relationship with Donald Trump actually, which is for the next three years, is temporary, transactional and tactical but it is given Pakistan strategic space. However, we should be very careful about silly ideas like Pasni, which is 70 miles from Gawadar, which is the centrepiece of CPEC, and it is 100 miles from Iran. So how can we have Americans sitting in our front yard? It was a pipe dream.

“So looking at the future, at the end of this month President Xi Jinping of China and President Trump of the United States are expected to meet in Seoul at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit. I think they’ll make a deal on trade and President Xi Jinping will probably invite Trump to visit China in 2026 and in return Trump will invite Xi Jinping to the US and there will be a broad understanding. One good part of that expected understanding would be that it will calm things down in South Asia because both China and the US have a similar worldview when it comes to certain issues including the Korean Peninsula, the Middle East and South Asia,” he said.

“Already in India, the post-Modi transition has begun. He is in the same position that Nehru was after 1962 following the thrashing given to India by the Chinese. Nehru was politically wounded and I think Modi is politically dead,” he added.

“For Pakistan, we need to provide the Chinese with foolproof security, we have failed to provide them that because there have been eight attacks in the last five years.”

The session was moderated by DawnMedia CEO Hameed Haroon. Chairperson of PIIA, Dr Masuma Hasan provided the welcome note as well as the vote of thanks.

Published in Dawn, October 10th, 2025