The collapse of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s high-stakes efforts to transform ties with the world’s superpowers, one after another, has exposed the limits of India’s leverage so much that he even acknowledged he might have to pay a personal political price for the recent trade dispute with the US, The New York Times has reported.

He shared a riverfront swing in his home state of Gujarat with the leader of China, the giant neighbour that he hoped India could emulate in economic prosperity, but as they chatted, troops on both sides got involved in a standoff along their shared border.

The flare-up in 2014 was the first of several acts of aggression that would ultimately leave Mr Modi embarrassed, his economy squeezed by the need to keep tens of thousands of Indian troops on a war footing high in the Himalayas for several years.

Years later, India’s strongman warmed up to the United States, putting even more of his political credit on the line to rapidly transform a relationship that had been only slowly shedding its Cold War-era frost. Mr Modi developed such a bonhomie with President Trump in his first term that he broke with protocol to campaign for a second term for him at a stadium-packed event in Houston.

Indian officials, experts believe the country will have to firmly return to its doctrine of ‘strategic autonomy’

“A.I.” stands for “America and India,” Mr Modi, who has a penchant for playing with acronyms, told a joint session of Congress last year.

Then came the time when President Trump, now in his second term, gave the leadership of Pakistan equal footing as he tried to settle a conflict between the Asian neighbours in May.

Mr Modi faced further humiliation on the world stage when several Indian fighter jets were downed as tensions between India and Pakistan escalated into days of cross-border clashes and eventually Mr Trump announced that he had pressured both sides to agree to a ceasefire.

While Pakistani officials welcomed the announcement — and even later said they had put Mr Trump’s name up for a Nobel Peace Prize — Indian officials not only contradicted him but also pushed hard against the American president’s assertion that he has repeated dozens of times since.

Finally, the US president last week singled India out for a whopping 50 per cent tariff, citing its purchases of Russian oil and called India’s economy “dead”.

All that has plunged India into a moment of soul-searching, exposing limitations to its power on the world stage despite its gargantuan size and growing economy.

Mr Modi acknowledged this week that he might pay a personal political price for the trade dispute with the United States.

Back to square one

Interestingly, there is now increased activity toward warming ties with Beijing once again, with Mr Modi scheduled to visit at the end of the month for the first time in seven years.

However, China, for its part, has been wary of New Delhi’s efforts to create a manufacturing alternative to Beijing.

Mr Modi has also been working the phone. He spoke with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and said that both sides vowed to deepen “the India-Russia Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership”.

He also spoke with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil, which is stuck in its own messy showdown with Mr Trump.

Mr Modi’s national security adviser was in Moscow this week to finalize details of a trip by Mr Putin to New Delhi. “I look forward to hosting President Putin in India later this year,” Mr Modi said on X after their call.

Stuck between two superpowers that have shown no hesitation to put India down in moments of friction, there is a growing sense among Indian officials and experts that the country will have to firmly return to its long-tested doctrine of “strategic autonomy”.

In plain speak, that means India is on its own and should make do with a patchwork of contradictory and piecemeal ties, and avoid overcommitting to alliances.

Nirupama Rao, a former Indian ambassador to Beijing and Washington, said Mr Trump’s punishing moves had upended “the strategic logic of a very consequential partnership” that had been carefully nurtured over more than two decades.

There will be “very pragmatic strategic recalibrations” by New Delhi to protect its interests, she said.

“We have to draw our lessons and really focus on the national priorities and what we need to do to become strong and more influential,” Ms Rao said.

On the other hand, official talks between New Delhi and Washington have not entirely broken down despite the additional 25pc tariff imposed by the US as a penalty for India’s growing trade relations with Russia.

As the additional tariff will go into effect later this month, officials believe it could be a crude bargaining tactic to get a more favorable trade deal, and also to pressure Russia to reach a settlement in Ukraine.

Amitabh Kant, until recently Mr Modi’s envoy for dealing with the Group of 20 economies, said Mr Trump had used strong-arm tactics against other traditional US allies as well, and that India could still arrive at a mutually beneficial trade deal.

“But even if the trade issues are sorted out, the trust would have been lost forever,” he said.

If Mr Modi’s response to the Chinese aggression is any indication, analysts say, he would try to resolve the breakdown with the United States quietly and without public escalation.

In the wake of the deadly Chinese encroachment at the border, Mr Modi’s response was measured.

Even as he leveraged the shared threat from Beijing to expand defense and technology and maritime ties with the United States, his officials were at pains to avoid being used by the United States as a pawn against Beijing.

That avoidance of public escalation has made it possible to work toward patching up the relationship since last October, when officials of the two sides started engaging in earnest.

The chest-thumping against Mr Trump from Mr Modi’s shocked support base has been limited, and Mr Modi has cloaked his defiance as defending his people’s livelihoods.

“India will never compromise on the interests of its farmers, fishermen and dairy farmers,” Mr Modi told a gathering this week, after Mr Trump’s announcement of the high tariffs.

“I know I will have to pay a heavy price personally, and I am ready for it.”

The relationship, in fact, had begun souring months before Mr Trump’s focus on Russian oil, leading some officials and analysts to suggest the breakdown in ties has to do with a more personal slight that Mr Trump has felt.

“What we now have is a US president who is a very egotistical person with the highly personalised style of leadership and an Indian prime minister who is also an egotistical person with a highly personalized style of leadership,” said Sanjaya Baru, an author and former adviser to Mr Modi’s predecessor.

“When you have two leaders who have converted what is essentially a relationship between nations into a relationship between individual leaders, I think this is the price that we probably are paying.”

Published in Dawn, August 10th, 2025