LAHORE: Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) and the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) on Friday issued an alert for the sixth spell of monsoon rains across Punjab from Aug 5.

The PMD and PDMA also predicted the possibility of medium to high level flooding in the rivers Chenab and Jhelum.

Weather forecasts predict widespread thunderstorms and heavy rainfall in the upper catchments of the Ravi and Sutlej rivers, while scattered thunderstorms are expected in the upper catchments of the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. Regions including Islamabad, Peshawar, Lahore, and Gujranwala divisions may experience isolated heavy rainfall. Over the past 24 hours, significant rainfall was recorded in Layyah (35mm), Bahawalnagar (32mm) and Zhob (24mm).

Rain is predicted in Murree, Galiat, Attock, Chakwal, Jhelum, Mandi Bahauddin, Gujrat, Gujranwala, Hafizabad, Lahore, Sheikhupura, Sialkot, Narowal, Sahiwal, Jhang, Toba Tek Singh, Khushab, Sargodha, Mianwali, Nankana Sahib, Chiniot, Faisalabad, Okara, Dera Ghazi Khan, Bhakkar, Bahawalpur, Khanewal, Pakpattan, Vehari, Lodhran, Muzaffargarh and Rajanpur.

Rains in August predicted to be more than previous month

Punjab Relief Commissioner Nabeel Javed issued instructions to the commissioners and deputy commissioners and the relevant administrations across the province to remain alert.

Punjab PDMA has issued instructions to the civil defence, rescue and related institutions to complete advance arrangements.

PDMA Director General Irfan Ali Kathia said that monsoon rains in August were predicted to be more than the previous month. He said that staff in emergency control rooms and disaster response teams of Rescue 1122 should also be kept on high alert. He asked the public to follow precautionary measures as there was a risk of landslides in Murree and Galiyat.

He said rains could cause damage to mud houses and dilapidated buildings and travelers and tourists should be cautious and avoid unnecessary travel.

Meanwhile, the Met’s Flood Forecasting Division also issued updates on water levels and flood forecasts for major rivers across the country. As of August 1, the Indus River at key locations such as Tarbela, Kalabagh, Chashma, Taunsa, Guddu, and Sukkur was experiencing low flood levels, while the Chenab at Marala was also in low flood. All other major rivers, including the Jhelum, Ravi, and Sutlej, were flowing within their normal ranges.

The Tarbela Dam’s current water level stands at 1539 feet, with live storage at 89% of its maximum conservation level of 1550 feet. Similarly, the Mangla Dam’s level is 1201.20 feet, with live storage at 61.14% of its 1242 feet capacity. Quantitative forecasts indicate inflows at Tarbela are expected to remain between 260,000 to 280,000 cusecs, classified as low flood levels. Historical data shows peak inflows at Tarbela reached 832,000 cusecs in 2010, while this year’s highest so far is 370,000 cusecs.

The Chenab River at Marala is expected to see medium to high flood levels, with inflows projected between 150,000 to 210,000 cusecs. In contrast, the Ravi and Sutlej rivers are anticipated to experience low to below-low flood levels, with inflows at Balloki (Ravi) forecasted at 40,000 to 55,000 cusecs.

Published in Dawn, August 2nd, 2025