WASHINGTON: The insurgency in Afghanistan is growing and is threatening to further destabilize a country already suffering from the consequences of decades of war and internal strife, warns a US think-tank.

The report by Council on Foreign Relations notes that for years, the US administration has been claiming that Afghan insurgents were on the retreat.

US authorities described greater American and Afghan casualties as either signs of desperation by foundering terrorists or the result of more aggressive US tactics that are pushing opposition fighters out of their safe havens, the report adds.

“(But) the US government has now admitted that the insurgency is growing and becoming more effective,” says the author, an Afghan expert and New York University Professor Barnett R. Rubin.

The report, ‘Afghanistan’s Uncertain Transition From Turmoil to Normalcy,’ notes that Kabul is being dangerously short-changed in troops and funds in the shadow of the Iraq war, and warns that further reduction in US and allied military presence in Afghanistan could lead to a ‘disastrous situation’.

The report says that Afghanistan’s transition to stability is in not guaranteed. While violence there pales in comparison to Iraq, there is a growing insurgency there, fed by Al Qaeda and Taliban terrorists ‘hiding in Pakistan.’

“This is not the time to draw down the military presence or to reduce aid,” states the report. “The world thus far has put Afghanistan on life support, rather than investing in a cure... Afghanistan has the potential to be a disastrous situation if intelligent, measured steps are not taken.”

The report says that the central Afghan government is alternately corrupt and ineffective, and its parliament “potentially dysfunctional.”

The economy and the government are heavily influenced by drug trafficking, which remains a cornerstone of Afghanistan’s wealth. “The distribution of the proceeds of narcotics trafficking, not elections, largely determines who wields power in much of Afghanistan,” states the report.

“Economic growth also requires a policy of eliminating narcotics that does not impoverish people. There should be no short-term conditionality of aid on eliminating narcotics. Elimination of narcotics will take well over a decade, and crop eradication is a counterproductive way to start such a programme. Foreign donors should support the Afghan government’s long-term plan and not impose their own programmes,” states the report.

Afghanistan remains near the bottom of the world in poverty, hunger, ill health, illiteracy and gender inequality. “The country ranks approximately 173 out of 178 countries in the basic index of human development, effectively putting it in a tie for last place with a few African countries,” the report says.

The report suggests that other countries, notably Germany and Japan — which have not yet done so — should provide multiyear aid commitments and channel aid through the government budget.

The report underlines the following as the key problems confronting Afghanistan:

A corrupt and ineffective administration without resources and a potentially dysfunctional parliament.;

An economy and administration heavily influenced by drug traffickers… [as] the distribution of the proceeds of narcotics trafficking, not elections, largely determines who wields power in much of Afghanistan.; and

“Levels of poverty, hunger, ill health, illiteracy, and gender inequality that put Afghanistan near the bottom of every global ranking….The country ranks approximately 173 out of 178 countries in the basic index of human development, effectively putting it in a tie for last place with a few African countries.”

The report recommends that:

Afghanistan can be stable and secure only if it is well integrated into its region, both economically and politically. Achieving this goal will require sustained efforts to deescalate and eventually resolve the country’s long-standing conflicts with Pakistan over relations with India, the border, ethnic issues, and transit trade, and to insulate Afghanistan from conflict relating to Iran.;

“None of the problems of this destitute, devastated country can be addressed effectively without sustained, equitable economic growth. In addition to security, this requires extensive investments in infrastructure, governance, and the justice system.;

“Economic growth also requires a policy of eliminating narcotics that does not impoverish people. There should be no short-term conditionality of aid on eliminating narcotics. Elimination of narcotics will take well over a decade, and crop eradication is a counterproductive way to start such a programme. Foreign donors should support the Afghan government’s long-term plan and not impose their own programmes.;

“A stable and secure Afghanistan requires a legitimate and capable state. To ensure that international aid fulfils this objective, the United States and other major aid donors that have not done so already, notably Germany and Japan, should provide multiyear aid commitments and channel increasing amounts of aid through the government budget by mechanisms such as the Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund, the Law and Order Trust Fund for Afghanistan, and the Counter-Narcotics Trust Fund for Afghanistan.”