KARACHI, Feb 4: An expected bumper harvest of wheat crop this spring may not cheer small farmers in Sindh and Punjab as one million tons of imported wheat has kept the government stocks stuffed and there is very little room for fresh procurement this year.

A carryover stock of three million tons plus with the government means that there is relatively less space for wheat from the fresh crop in silos. Carrying over three million tons for the last more than nine months means a drag of Rs3 billion plus loan of the banks that now charge 9.6 per cent interest. The interest rates are revised upward after every three months. About two months ago, the monthly interest on Punjab bank loans was over Rs660 million.

Farmers expect a harvest of 21.5 to 22 million tons of wheat in the next few months. Punjab is expected to give an output of 18 to 18.5 million tons, followed by 2.5 million tons from Sindh and 0.2 to 0.3 million tons from NWFP and Balochistan. With a carryover stock of three million tons plus, the total availability of wheat next year will be 25 million tons plus, one of the highest records in Pakistan. “It is now a problem of plenty for the food managers of Pakistan who are endowed with a special skill of converting plenty into scarcity,” a farmer leader remarked sarcastically.

Anticipating hard days ahead when the crop will be harvested, the farmers are gearing up and preparing for launching a campaign to stop import of wheat and instead plead for export. Reports suggest that the Russian crop has been badly affected by severe winter.

The National Accountability Bureau (NAB) remains a silent spectator to the reports of bribing of Pakistani officials by the Australians, but the Australian Wheat Board is investigating and very soon the names and details will be made public.

The two main sources of wheat import — Russia and Australia — apparently look dry and blocked.

Syed Bilal Sufi, a leader of the millers in Punjab, said that wheat flour was sold in Karachi at Rs12 to Rs13 a kg in July last year when the government decided to import the commodity. “Flour is being sold at the same price even now when about one million tons of wheat has been imported,” he said, questioning the wisdom in pampering a few importers and patronising foreign farmers at the cost of countrymen.

He wants the government to explore the export of wheat and flour but with caution and close monitoring so that consumers in Pakistan do not suffer. About two years ago, Mr Bilal was against the Punjab government policy of restriction on inter-provincial wheat movement and earned the wrath of ruling politician and powerful business family.

“I have asked Food and Agricultural Minister Hayat Bosan to stop the import for wheat forthwith,” Syed Qamaruzaman Shah, President of the Sindh Chamber of Agriculture, told Dawn on Saturday from Hyderabad by telephone.

He wondered as to why the imported Russian wheat was being preferred over a good quality nutritious wheat grain of Sindh and Punjab.

Millers concede that they are grinding 30 per cent imported Russian wheat with 70 per cent mix of Australian or American and Pakistani wheat. Sindh food department officials said that it was vice versa. The local flour mills use 70 per cent imported Russian wheat as its price difference was Rs120 on a 100-kg bag. The millers claim that a substantial quantity of wheat of the government stock is infected and hence not fit for consumption.

From its more than 0.4 million tons wheat stocks, the Sindh government has started delivering 46,000 tons of wheat to earthquake affected areas in Azad Kashmir and NWFP under the World Food Programme. It has almost concluded the supply of 120,000 tons to Balochistan, which will leave with it about 250,000 tons of wheat.

The officials say that the millers in interior of Sindh are now buying wheat from the government stocks and hope that a good quantity would be disposed of by the next month.

With a capacity of 700,000 tons in godowns, which are expected to carry about 0.2 million tons of wheat, the Sindh food department is to expected to launch its procurement sometimes in the third week of March or early April. Indications are that it will procure about half a million tons.

Out of about one million tons, seven ships carrying 0.35m tons would be reaching Port Qasim in the next few weeks which is bound to create a glut in the local market. Leaders of the farming community are working out a strategy to meet this situation.