THE World Population Day that is being observed today is an apt occasion for Pakistan, the fifth most populous country in the world, to see where we stand on the world map in this critical regard. As things stand right now, we are on track to become the third most populous nation by 2053, surpassing the United States. This is as alarming as it sounds.

The exponential population growth in Pakistan raises significant concerns about the implications on human and economic development, climate change, water scarcity, poverty, security and, indeed, stability. High population growth remains a leading factor behind poor health and education outcomes, soaring unemployment rate, inequality and the country’s overall economic situation.

The United Nations predicts that Pakistan’s working-age population will reach its peak around 2050, presenting a window of opportunity for a demographic dividend — a period of sustained economic growth. However, Pakistan has failed to capitalise on this potential due to a lack of foresight and political will. If no corrective measures are taken, the country could face dire consequences not too far ahead in the future.

According to a modelling study by the UN Population Fund, 34.4 per cent of the population could fall below the poverty line by 2030. Also, 37.4pc will experience food insecurity, 35.9pc children will face stunting, only 58pc of children are expected to achieve minimal proficiency in reading, 57pc will not have access to safe drinking water, and 43pc of urban dwellers may find themselves living in slums. All this is expected to happen by 2030, which is merely seven years away.

The high population growth rate will undoubtedly exacerbate climate change adaptation and resilience issues, strain water resources, and potentially contri-bute to political instability and conflict.

To address these challenges, key stakeholders need to take immediate action. This includes strong political commitment and effective governance on population policy. The population policy should be prioritised and integrated into all development initiatives, with regular performance evaluations at the highest levels.

Also, public financing has to be increased to improve expenditure efficiency on the family planning front. The focus should be on procuring contraceptives, expanding the lady health workers (LHWs) programme, conducting behaviour change communications, and establishing public-private partnerships.

Further, coordination and integration need to be enhanced among relevant departments both at federal and provincial levels. Improving access to family planning services, particularly for women, can bridge the existing gaps, and ensure comprehensive reproductive healthcare services.

The current National Finance Commission (NFC) award criterion heavily relies on population numbers. It should be recalibrated to incentivise proactive measures in family planning programmes and population policy.

Also, multi-sectoral interventions need to be made to leverage the demographic dividend. Increasing investment in education and skill development, especially for girls, gender equality, and women’s economic empowerment, can harness the potential of the young population, and secure a prosperous future.

Immediate action is crucial as Pakistan stands at a critical juncture of its journey. Failure to address the population issue may lead to socioeconomic challenges with long-lasting consequences. By prioritising the population policy and making strategic interventions, Pakistan can transform these challenges into opportunities for sustainable development and improved quality of life for future generations.

Dr Sara Shahzad
Islamabad

Published in Dawn, July 11th, 2023