SHANGHAI, Jan 14: China, the world’s top producer and consumer of wheat, is unlikely to import the grain in 2006, despite an expected deficit of about 3 million tons, analysts from state-owned think-tanks said on Saturday.

In 2006, there’s no scope for imports. There’s just no market for that, Zhu Changguo, executive chairman of the Chinese Cereals and Oils Association, told an industry conference.

Although demand was higher than output last year, we imported about 10 million tons in 2004-2005, leaving an excess of 8-9 million tons. Our reserves are just too high, he said.

China’s National Grains and Oils Information Centre (CNGOIC) put the country’s wheat deficit at 3 million tons in the marketing year which began in October.

Traders and analysts have said China’s wheat reserves were piling up following large imports in 2004 and bumper crops in 2005, which would make it unlikely for the country to import large quantities in near future.

Shang’s forecast for the 2005/2006 wheat deficit was smaller than the 2005 deficit of 8.0 million tons estimated by Agriculture Minister Du Qingling late in December.

He gave no figures for acreages or output of the country’s 2006 winter wheat, which accounts for more than 90 per cent of China’s total wheat output and is to be harvested after May.

Shang forecast that China’s overall grain consumption would rise to 500 million tons in 2006, and that China would have to meet 5 per cent of its total grains demand through imports. —Reuters