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Published 30 Dec, 2005 12:00am

Democracy, Iran tension to test Russia’s G8 stint

MOSCOW: Moscow’s tensions with the West over Iran’s nuclear programme and its patchy record on democracy will test Russia’s year at the helm of the G8 club of rich nations starting on Sunday.

And, with the security of world energy supplies at the top of Russia’s G8 agenda, Putin may have to do some fancy footwork if he is to stop a row over the price of gas supplies to Ukraine rebounding on its chairmanship from day one.

“The Russian presidency of the ‘Eight’ will be associated not with roses but with a large quantity of healthy thorns,” the daily Moskovsky Komsomolets predicted.

But Russia will still do its best to boost its international standing during its G8 presidency.

For the former KGB spy-turned-president, easing into the driving seat of the elite Group of Eight on Jan. 1 will be a crowning moment after years of Russia being treated as a wild card by the United States and other G8 partners.

In July, Putin will play the statesman when he hosts the key summit in his hometown of St. Petersburg with US President George W. Bush and the leaders of Japan, Britain, France, Italy, Germany and Canada as his guests.

Analysts say his action to soften proposed curbs on human rights bodies and charities in Russia signals Putin’s aim of making Russia’s time in office smooth and non-controversial.

So, Russia’s G8 agenda comprises only non-contentious themes — energy policy, fighting disease and the war on terror.

Held at arms-length by the G7 because of doubts about its democratic course and its commitment to the free-market, Russia has for some years been in the club but not fully a part of it.

“It will be very important for Mr Putin to show that Russia is not only a junior member of this very influential club, but a member who can chair the whole club for a while,” said Nikolai Petrov of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “It is very important from a symbolic point of view.”

While still not in the top-10 of the world’s largest economies, Russia joined the group in 1998, but does not participate in meetings of G7 finance ministers. The G8 does not have a formal structure and its agenda is set by the presidency.

Russia has rarely been in better economic shape. It has seen seven straight years of growth on record world oil prices and is now in the grip of a consumer boom. Its foreign exchange coffers more than cover its $91 billion government debt.

As it establishes itself as a major gas and oil-producing power, part of Russia’s G8 message will be that, though traditional world energy sources are in unstable parts of the Middle East, it remains an exporter of cast-iron reliability.

But that boast could evaporate quickly if its gas row with neighbouring Ukraine is not settled soon, observers say.

Ukraine has rejected the nearly five-fold hike in the price of natural gas demanded by Russia’s Gazprom monopoly for 2006, saying it needs a transitional period to adjust its economy.

Without a compromise, Gazprom will stop supplies to its former ex-Soviet ally on Jan. 1, the day Russia takes over the G8 presidency. That in turn could hit Western Europe customers — with the finger of blame being pointed at Russia.

“If Western Europe shivers in the cold for even just two days, it will be a catastrophe for us,” Moskovsky Komsomolets said. “Russia will acquire the reputation of an unreliable supplier with all the ensuing consequences”.

Mindful of Western unease over the course of democracy in Russia and the Kremlin’s steady centralisation of power, Putin has prudently acted to improve his own profile ahead of time.—Reuters

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