Wedding boom or divorce epidemic?

The 2022 wedding boom is likely to end in a divorce. Everything from a surge in engagement ring sales to booked-up venue rentals indicate we’re headed for a major marriage boom. If past disasters are any clue, couples who got hitched in the middle of the pandemic have a better chance of enduring than those rushing to the altar now that times are better. Previous marriage booms suggest that human emotions, particularly those associated with collective traumas, play a big role in nudging people to the altar — and determining whether they remain married or split up. When a collective trauma hits a society, it forces people to reevaluate their priorities and their partners. Some individuals tie the knot; others get divorced; others do both, repeatedly. A recent study that examined the 20pc decline in marriage rates from 1929 to 1933 determined that this precipitous drop was a direct consequence of economic hardship, with the biggest declines in marriage rates coming in areas hit hardest by the calamity.

(Adapted from “This Wedding Boom Could Lead To A Bad Hangover,” by Stephen Mihm, published on 22 July 2021, by Bloomberg Opinion)

The most travel worthy vaccine

Perhaps the best litmus test of the post-pandemic world will be how much international travel returns. In 2020 international tourism arrivals fell by 74pc compared with 2019, to just 380m — by contrast the fall was just 4pc during the financial crisis. In recent months international travel has begun to recover. With 3.7bn vaccine doses administered around the world, many people are raring to pack their bags for a foreign trip. But not every vaccine-acquired antibody automatically allows you freely to jet off overseas. The AstraZeneca jab is the most widely accepted, with 119 governments recognising it. It is the most-used vaccine and it is also approved by the World Health Organisation. By contrast, China’s CanSinoBio is recognised by just a handful of governments. This month the European Union said it would not admit visitors who had received India’s Covishield vaccine. The travel industry is concerned that such restrictions will keep people at home. In the coming year it is likely that a number of vaccines will struggle to gain international recognition.

(Adapted from “Which covid-19 vaccine is the most widely accepted for international travel?” published by The Economist on July 20, 2021) The new positions post-pandemic

The role of remittances

Workers’ remittances have financed Pakistan’s trade and primary income deficit significantly over the last 50 years. Historically, Pakistan started receiving these inflows, in notable size, during early 1970s, when the incumbent prime minister actively pursued immigration of Pakistani labor force to countries of Gulf Cooperation Council. At that time, Gulf economies were experiencing oil price boom and labour shortages. Since then, Pakistan has received $258.3bn in remittances. Only exports, with $480bn, exceeded remittances in foreign exchange inflows in this period. Even, inflow in foreign direct investment from 1977 to 2019 was only $47.4bn, too small as compared to workers’ remittances. Despite their significant volume and potential, the role of remittances in promoting economic growth of Pakistan remains to be established firmly. Traditionally, migrants send remittances to their families to buy necessities such as food, clothing, medicine and shelter, helping lift a large number of people out of poverty. However, the higher remittances inflows may lower labour force participation in domestic economy and decrease work efforts.

(Adapted from “Do Workers’ Remittances Promote Economic Growth in Pakistan?” by Sarmad Ellahi and Muhammad Omer, published in January 2021 as part of the SBP Working Paper Series)

Remote-work Czars

One of the most sought-after management jobs right now is leading large, far-flung teams through uncharted waters. Ask a college senior, and “vice president of productivity and remote experience” probably isn’t on her list of dream jobs. Yet this fast-growing pandemic-era position has emerged as a previously unimaginable path to the C-suite — or at least to a virtual desk nearby. The role, named by executive search firm Cowen Partners as one of the 10 most sought-after management jobs right now, entails keeping staff engaged and connected while working from home.

Adapted from “The Remote-Work Czar Is the New Shortcut to the C-Suite,” by Matthew Boyle, published on 26 July 2021, by Bloomberg Businessweek)

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, August 1st, 2021