THE devastating economic effects of the Covid-19 have left governments across the world struggling with how to best respond to the deadly pandemic as they face incredibly hard choices between locking down the countries to stop the spread of the disease at the risk of their economic collapse that would potentially kill many from starvation (and other reasons) and remain open to cut the economic losses at the expense of a swifter increase in infections.

Balancing the containment of the virus outbreak and the reduction in the economic losses is becoming more complicated without an effective vaccine to defeat the Covid-19. This trade-off has particularly become difficult for fiscally strained countries like Pakistan, which have little space or are reluctant to allocate more resources to help millions of people affected by the shuttered economy for fear of re-emergence of macroeconomic imbalances. It, therefore, is hard to blame the Imran Khan government to relax social distancing measures enforced to restrain the spread of the disease by reopening some non-essential industries and businesses.

However, these measures may have been eased too soon and without enough preparation to at least mitigate the impact of the partial removal of movement restrictions on the spread of infections. And only a few believe that the partial resumption of economic activities will produce the desired results, rather than sending a confusing message to the people at large.

‘If you want to open the industry you will also have to lift restrictions on public transport to facilitate the movement of labour and reopen the markets for us to sell our wares’

In Punjab, for example, the relaxation of lockdown restrictions on certain industries and professions is reported to have sent a free-for-all signal as numerous businesses, which aren’t covered under the exemptions, also reopened. However, many of the industries and businesses exempted from lockdown restrictions are unable to operate because of breaks in the supply chain and absence of demand. Police deployed in Lahore to restrict public movement in the city and enforce social distance measures were at a loss to perform their duty.

“Either you lockdown the country or you don’t; you can’t have your cake and eat it too. This new situation is confusing. It is creating inconvenience and hassle for everyone because effective monitoring is not possible because of cultural and social reasons. Practically, there is no lockdown since the government announcement to relax the restrictions was made,” a senior Punjab police official told this correspondent. According to him, most people didn’t care about the guidelines issued by the government because “it is not in our DNA to take precautions.”

His views are shared by many factory owners as well. “If you want to open the industry you will also have to lift restrictions on public transport to facilitate the movement of labour to the factories and reopen the markets for us to sell our wares,” Shahzad Azam Khan, a manufacturer who heads the board of management of the Sundar Industrial Estate (SIE), said.

He was of the view that majority of the industries, especially the small and medium enterprises (SMEs), could not enforce the mandatory guidelines given by the government to operate their units in letter and spirit even if they wanted to. “You may force your workers to observe social distancing and other safety measures inside your factories but what about when they leave our premises hugging, kissing and wrestling with one another?” he asks.

Those who are in favour of reopening the economy and industrial activity, however, try to paint quite a different picture. “Let me assure you that the government is very serious about enforcement of its guidelines and standard operating procedures (SOP) for mitigating the Covid-19 spread from the factories. I have hired a doctor who checks each worker before entering the factory every morning. I have to implement all conditions laid out in the provincial guidelines for the industry exempted from the lockdown restrictions because I know I will have to shut down my production even if one of my workers falls sick,” a manufacturer from Kot Lakhpat Industrial Estate said on condition of anonymity.

He said the government should ramp up inspections and monitoring, and launch a comprehensive campaign to educate the people about the importance of the precautions needed for their protection inside or outside of the factories and shops. He said stretching the lockdown for a longer period was not an option because no government or country – no matter how many resources they have – could feed everybody or protect them from dying from non-Covid-19 reasons. “Our government has taken a wise decision by partially reopening the economy in phases. A longer shutdown would have killed the economy.”

Nevertheless, those who are opposed to relaxation in lockdown restrictions insist that the government appears overconfident at a time when caution should have been the order of the day. “The government should make its decisions on such crucial matters based on data and not on whims,” a senior doctor said of the decision to ease back the lockdown restrictions. “It is a folly to make this kind of decision when the number of infections is rising rapidly. Most countries are basing these decisions on a sustained drop in the number of infections over a period of at least two weeks or more. Besides, the government should have the capacity to test extensively, trace potential cases and monitor them, as well as the ability to plan and enforce smart, localised lockdowns of infected neighbourhoods based on data collected through testing and tracking. Until we have the vaccine, the mass social distancing measures are the only way to mitigate the spread and prevent our poor, inadequate healthcare system from collapse.”

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, April 20th, 2020