CHINA became the world’s second largest economy surpassing Japan in 2010 and is expected to become the largest in the near future. It has excelled in all fields — from human capital development to technological accomplishments. The Chinese achieved this by introducing and implementing reforms that incentivised efficiency and productivity in the country.

A skilled super-efficient labour force has contributed to China’s efforts by ensuring increased capital accumulation and implementation of export-oriented economic strategies. The ensuing growing balance of trade and highly profitable rate of domestic trade has enabled China to spend more money on education, health, and human skills.

Investments in information technology have played a pivotal role in China acquiring a consistent competitive advantage in global IT market. China has the fourth largest IT market in the world. China’s current five-year plan is to make IT one of her strategic industries that would help the country become innovative-driven and a high-tech society, expecting her IT industry to grow by five per cent annually over the next five years. Internet users in China have increased to over 500 million from 22 million in 2000.

Development is a self-discovery phenomenon. To this end it would benefit Pakistan if we thoroughly analysed our own dimensions, and mobilised the resources that we have.

Our domestic economists must not rely on policies that were implemented and became successful in other countries. They must propose economic strategies in the perspective of Pakistan.

Fahad Khan

Naudero

(2)

WE never tire of wishing to convert Pakistan into another China but ignore the stark differences that put the two countries poles apart — for instance China’s water security and its morality.

There are about 22,104 dams in China over a height of 15 metres (49 feet). Of the world’s total large dams, China accounts for 20 per cent, 45 per cent for irrigation. The oldest dam in China, Dujiangyan Irrigation System dates back to 256 BC. In 2005, there were over 80,000 reservoirs in the country and over 4,800 dams completed or under construction that stand at or exceed 30 metres in height.

As of 2007, China is also the world’s leader in the construction of large dams. The highest dam in China is the Jinping-I Dam at 305 metres, an arch dam, which is also the tallest dam in the world. The largest reservoir is created by the Three Gorges Dam, which stores 39.3 billion m3 (31,900,000 acre feet) of water and has a surface area of 1,045 squarekm. Three Gorges is also the world’s largest power station.

Yet, water is scarce in China. The country provides only one-quarter of the global average water per person. Small dams are built even in rain-water catchment areas. Philip Ball, in The Water Kingdom; A Secret History of China (p. 293) observes ‘China lacks a strong tradition of environmental protection, but is, in that respect, no different to the West’.

In contrast, Pakistan could not build the 3500MW Kalabagh Dam for want of consensus among provinces. The 3500MW KBD was approved by Technical Committee on Water Resources 2003-2005. The project was later approved by the World Bank Indus Special Study Group in its report titled Development of Water and Power Resources of Pakistan: A Sectoral Analysis (1967).

The estimated cost was then $6.12 billion, spread over six years’ construction from 1977 to 1982. The cost per unit of 12 billion units of hydel electricity was Rs1.5 compared to Rs16.5 per unit (and growing) from thermal sources.

We kept losing Rs180 billion per year owing to 10 times costlier production. Add to this the loss of $6.12 billion per annum due to superfluous flow of 30 million acre feet of water from Kotri Barrage into the Arabian Sea (one MAF valued at $1.5 billion).

Pakistan’s water reserves have not risen pari passu with growth in population, 32.4 million in 1948 to 207.8 million in 2017. In kharif season, rivers flow at 84 per cent while only 40 per cent during rabi season.

The present water storage capacity in Pakistan is hardly 11.77MAF that is only about eight per cent of the annual flow. Compare this with 350 per cent (132 MAF) of the River Nile flow.

Let us not mix rhetoric with reality.

Asad Ali Burki

Islamabad

Published in Dawn, June 8th, 2019