WASHINGTON: The nation’s business economists foresee a sharp slowdown in US economic growth over the next two years, in sharp contrast to the Trump administration’s predictions that growth will accelerate this year and next.

That finding comes from the latest survey by the National Association for Business Economics being released on Monday. Its economists collectively project that growth, as measured by the gross domestic product, will reach a modest 2.4 per cent this year and just 2pc in 2020. Among the key factors in their dimmer assessment are a global slowdown and the ongoing trade conflicts between the Trump administration and several major trading partners.

Still, the NABE economists say they think a recession remains unlikely any time soon.

For 2018, economic growth amounted to 2.9pc, the government has estimated. The economy benefited last year from tax cuts and increased government spending, the gains from which are now thought to be fading. It’s one reason why most economists foresee a more sluggish pace of growth.

The new NABE projections, from a panel of 55 professional forecasters, represent a significant drop from their previous forecast in December of 2.7pc growth this year. And their estimate is much lower than the Trump’s administration’s new projection that GDP growth will remain above 3pc this year and over the next six years.

Published in Dawn, March 26th, 2019