Syed Hussain Haider, head of research at JS Global makes a guess on how returns on investment will play out in 2019: Stock market providing a return of around 20pc; National Saving Schemes (NSS) and government securities a return of 11.3pc. Money in the bank, which in 2018 earned just 3.2pc, is likely to provide 9pc in 2019. The dollar could generate 6pc and gold 12pc.
According to the above, returns on all asset class — save for gold and dollar — will improve, but the equity market will take the cake.
“The problems that the stock market has been going through are not unique. If we look back at all the times the market has faced a rough patch, one thing is immediately evident: Those investors who enter at these ‘inflection points’ of the market cycle are the ones who are a cut above the rest,” says Mr Haider.
He affirms that in 2019, for investors with an appetite for risk, equity market returns are expected to be higher than those of other asset class. For risk-averse investors fixed income instruments, money market and government securities are considered to be avenues of choice.
As an asset manager, Mr Haider would not talk about investment in mutual funds owing to a conflict of interest, but recommended Bonds due to high interest rates for high-net-worth individuals and NSS for risk-averse, small, investors.
Zulqarnain Khan, executive director, Next Capital also puts stocks as the winner of 2019, expected to generate a return of 17.6pc. He believes mutual funds may offer attractive returns: Stock Fund 27.1pc; Income Funds 10.7pc and money market funds 9.7pc.
Mr Khan estimates returns on savings accounts in banks at 8.5pc; Defence Savings Certificates 12.2pc, one-year Treasury Bills to yield 10.9pc and three-year Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs) 11.7 pc.
It is a small consolation that the Pakistani investor is not alone in their loss of wealth in 2018. The world’s richest people lost $511 billion in the year, according to Bloomberg, which ascribed the fall to global trade tensions and worries about US recession.