In the last 14 years of forecasting the Oscars for these pages, I’ve noticed a bad trend emerging globally in the Oscar prediction game. Almost everyone is picking their winners based on probability, statistics, and a surefire handicap system of past wins at various award shows. Very few are actually watching the entire spectrum of nominated titles — which, let me admit beforehand — is a monstrous task, especially if one has to minutely compare each specific category and make deductions.
As if watching the titles isn’t grueling enough (especially when you know some won’t even make the cut at award night), one has to keep the probability in mind that a good number of Academy members may not have actually seen most of the titles themselves… or worse yet, would vote by preference or word of mouth.
The prediction game gets complicated still: this year 774 new members were invited to join the Academy (the list includes Bollywood superstars Amitabh Bachchan, Aishwariya Rai-Bachchan, Priyanka Chopra, Deepika Padukone, Aamir Khan, Irrfan Khan and Salman Khan).
The selection list is diverse and far-reaching, adding women, minorities, youngsters and foreign talent to the mix. These new members — adding approximately 10 percent of the 7,258 total members — may shake things up, especially when one factors in the dramatic socio-political messages Hollywood has to put every year at award shows.
How the Oscars 2018 will actually play out we will only know tomorrow. But here are Icon’s predictions for this year’s Academy award winners
With the math, messages and movements, I guess there really is little room to applaud the craft of filmmaking. So this year, despite the already-in-place handicapping system, I’m keen to play the forecasting game by gut feeling and the knowledge I’ve gained after watching 80 percent of the nominated titles (we do not predict the short film categories because of their unavailability).
At the time of writing this piece, I am predicting serious upsets in the Editing, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing categories. On the creative side, Original Screenplay, Documentary and Original Song may prove to be close calls. Out of 21 predicted categories, I am confident on 16. How the night will actually play out, we can only guess for now.
So here are who we think ‘will win’ or ‘should win’ the award (the latter based on personal preference) and possible upsets in each category.
PICTURE
Will Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Upset: The Shape of Water
Both titles have strong women in the lead, yet despite the tilt in The Shape of Water’s favour, I count the film as an ‘upset’ and not a ‘should win’. Shape, despite being a very good picture, still feels like a commercial endeavour with artistic elements. Three Billboards, meanwhile, has a stronger message of rape, bigotry and redemption.
DIRECTOR
Will Win: Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water Little left to the imagination here. This is definitely Del Toro’s night.
ACTOR
Will Win: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
This is Gary Oldman’s second nomination and surefire win; last time he lost to Jean Dujardin (The Artist). The other nominees — Denzel Washington and Daniel Day-Lewis — already have Oscar statuettes.
ACTRESS
Will Win: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Upset: Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Again, I count Sally Hawkins as an ‘upset’ and not a ‘should win’. My reasons are exactly the same as the one in Best Picture. Despite both titles showcasing strong-willed women, this may be McDormand’s night getting her second Oscar. Then again, if I am wrong, new voters — a lot of them female — may choose to applaud one woman’s sexual liberation in favour of another’s rage against sexual predators and a corrupt system.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Upset: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Dafoe has a very, very slight chance of pulling off an ‘upset’. Personally, I would have voted for Woody Harrelson. Christopher Plummer has recently won an Oscar for Beginners in the same category in 2012.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will Win: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
I am pretty confident Janney will get Oscar love in her first nomination this year. She’s already an industry favourite. Laurie Metcalf, in my opinion, had a better-written role as a mother who can’t get along with her daughter.
SCREENPLAY — ORIGINAL
Will Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Upset: Get Out
I am on the fence in this category. Seven hundred and seventy-four new voters and diversity may get Get Out its only Oscar for the night (also, let’s not forget the fact that Jordan Peele is a new inductee of The Academy this year). Get Out despite raising issues of racial bias becomes a typical horror-thriller by the end, while Three Billboards has that “Oscar” worthiness in its topic – 50-50 percent tug of war here.
SCREENPLAY — ADAPTED
Will Win: James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name
Should Win: Molly’s Game
At 89, with a six-decade career (which includes four nominations and no wins) he is the second oldest person to be nominated by The Academy. The win for Molly’s Game is just wishful thinking (also, Aaron Sorkin, its writer, already has an Oscar).
Animated
Will Win: Coco
Upset: The Breadwinner
Not much chances for The Breadwinner to win the award. But still, it would be an astonishing upset.
FOREIGN
Will Win: A Fantastic Woman
Upset: The Square
I believe it will be a 60-40 race between A Fantastic Woman (a story of a transgender woman who lost her lover) and The Square (an art-gallery’s manager’s troubles). The former has stronger themes.
DOCUMENTARY — FEATURE LENGTH
Will Win: Faces Places
Should Win: Last Men in Aleppo
Upset: Icarus
This is by far the most difficult creative category to pick a win in. Faces Places may nab the award — it is directed by the photo-artist JR and esteemed French director Agnes Varda (also the oldest person nominated by the Academy). Varda, though, was given an honourary award this year. Last Men in Aleppo (about The White Helmets) is harrowing, but a little too manipulative and preachy; in hindsight, the subject won the Oscar last year in the Short Documentary category. Icarus (on Russia’s Olympic doping) is powerful and timely. This is a three-way race, folks.
CINEMATOGRAPHY