ISLAMABAD: While food commodity prices globally have been generally stable, the cost of importing food is set to rise in 2017 to $1.413 trillion, a 6 per cent increase from the previous year and the second highest tally on record, says the latest ‘Food Outlook’ report published by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).

The higher import bill is driven by increased international demand for most foodstuffs as well as higher freight rates. Of particular concern is the economic and social implications of the double-digit increases in the food import bills for least-developed countries and low-income food-deficit countries.

The food commodity outlook, issued twice a year, takes a close look at the markets of key food categories, including cassava, the livestock and dairy sectors, fish, vegetable oils and the main cereal grains.

While production trends are broadly strong across the board, average prices in international transactions can mask more specific trends.

Citing example, the report says while international wheat prices have been flat, US ‘Hard Red Spring wheat’, a popular high-quality variety with enough protein content to make noodles and pasta, was 40 per cent higher in July 2017 than a year ago.

Aromatic rice varieties have risen eight times faster than the FAO All Rice Index, which is up 4pc on the year. Likewise, the FAO Butter Price Index has risen 41pc so far in 2017, more than three times as much as the Dairy Price Index of which it is a component.

The livestock and dairy sectors are particularly dynamic. The meat import bill is set to reach an all-time high of $176bn this year, up 22pc from 2016. World milk production is predicted to grow by 1.4pc, led by a robust 4pc expansion in India, even as more stringent environmental regulations and quality controls in China may lead to a contraction there. Global milk production is set to reach 833.5 million tonnes in 2017.

World output of oilseeds oils - vegetable oils and animal fats are the largest items in the low-income food-deficit countries import bills - is expected to increase slightly this year after last year’s strong season. But global soybean production, despite a planting boom in the Northern Hemisphere, is set to decline as yields return to normal levels after last year’s nearly optimal weather.

Tropical fruits are increasingly stars in global trade, with export volumes of mango, pineapple, avocado and papayas on course to achieve a total combined value of $10bn this year, according to the food outlook.

Their popularity is promising for poverty relief and rural development as almost all production takes place in developing countries, usually through smallholder farmers with fewer than five hectares.

FAO estimates that total production of the four fruits – pineapple, mango, papaya and avocado could reach 92 million tonnes this year, compared to 69m tonnes in 2008. Currently 95pc of that output is consumed locally, but rising incomes and changing consumer preferences will likely boost export volumes, especially if freer trade and better market access stimulates further technological gains in distribution.

Published in Dawn, November 14th, 2017