WASHINGTON: A rupture in ties is not in the interests of either Pakistan or the United States but another terrorist attack in the US could lead to a violent reaction against Pakistan, warn former US and Pakistani officials.

The officials met at the US Institute for Peace on Thursday to discuss the future of Pakistan’s relations with the United States under president-elect Trump’s administration which will take effect from Jan 2017.

Former US diplomat Lisa Curtis and Pakistan’s former ambassador to the US Husain Haqqani described the worst possible scenario: a major terrorist attack in the United States with roots in Pakistan would lead to “all bets off” retaliation.

Former US assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asian Affairs Robin Raphel discussed the possibility of the militant Islamic State (IS) group growing deep roots in Afghanistan and Pakistan. In such a case, “if the administration does what Donald Trump had suggested…you could have another period of an increase in (US) military assistance to Pakistan,” she said.

The participants noted that the US-Pakistan ties got little attention in the presidential campaign but the Trump administration will have to deal with the important relationship when in power.

The former officials also reviewed the impact of about two billion dollars of US aid on the bilateral relationship.

All four participants acknowledged past tensions in the relationship but cautioned against any deep rupture.

“For the future, it’s important to stay engaged,” said Ms Raphel.

In light of a question raised by Moeed Yusuf from the United States Institute of Peace, the meeting considered possible directions — best, worst and most likely — for US-Pakistan relations following the change in the US administration.

Ms Curtis, who now works for a conservation think tank, the Heritage Foundation, warned that US security assistance to Pakistan would “continue to decline, unless we have some changes in Pakistan’s policy, including arrests and prosecutions of terrorists”. A decline in relations could be averted, she said, if Pakistan denied free movement of the Afghan Taliban in the country and assert pressure that would bring the Taliban leaders to the negotiating table.

Mr Haqqani, now the director for South and Central Asia at the Hudson Institute, said that the “most likely scenario, we will have, of course, curbs on immigration from Pakistan….aid will decline, and there will be some reaction in Pakistan”. He added: “I hope that it is measured so that it doesn’t provoke another reaction cycle here.”

The most likely scenario, according to Ms Raphel, would be the new administration having “a re-look and tighten up, harden up on the issues” such as the Afghan Taliban’s use of Pakistan as a safe haven. She hoped that “Pakistan will probably, at least in the short term, pull up its socks … and … accelerate plans that it might have to deal with some of these groups.”

Former State Bank governor Ishrat Husain said that if the Trump administration “de-hyphenates Pakistan from Afghanistan that will become a more enduring and positive relationship for Pakistan and the United States”.

Published in Dawn November 19th, 2016