THE so-called Islamic State has sparked deep anxieties across the world, particularly after terrorist attacks in Europe, vanquishing of state armies in the Middle East, institutionalisation of slavery, targeting of minorities and destruction of historic Palmyra. The IS has established a beachhead in Libya which it claims could outlast its ‘caliphate’ in Syria and Iraq.

The IS is an unprecedented threat owing to the success of its recruitment campaign; militant groups throughout Asia have pledged their allegiance, and thousands of youths from across the globe have joined their ranks. It is also the world’s wealthiest terrorist organisation with an estimated budget of $400-500m from oil and tax collections and ransoms amounting to over $1bn.

The IS has its origins in the Syrian crisis which began in 2011, when Assad clamped down on dissent, causing a civil war in which more than 250,000 people have been killed, six million have fled, and losses amount to $290bn.

Despite all this, and knowing the fates of other dictators, Assad has no intention of relinquishing his power.

Owing to recent successes (aided in no small part by Russian intervention) Assad appears uncompromising, and declared his intention to reclaim all of Syria. Russia thinks this most prudent, and appears prepared to support Assad until the end rather than repeat the Soviet humiliation in Afghanistan.

The US administration has remained cautious and accepted Russia’s lead in the Geneva conference. However, there is little chance of settlement, as talks are focused on future political arrangements and an interim governing body – which Assad deems ‘illogical and unconstitutional’.

Neither the Kurds (owing to Turkish resistance), nor the IS and the Nusra Front have been invited. Saudi Arabia’s stance is that no peace can ensue unless Assad steps down — thus a stalemate.

Assad and Russia might look at the ‘cessation of hostilities’ agreement as an opportunity to advance against the IS, but such a venture would cause further regional destabilisation.

And what if Turkish or Saudi troops entered Syria, would it spark a world war? One thing is certain, if the IS is not eliminated from the Middle East, it will spread to our region, and combined with the Taliban and Al Qaeda, will impose their ideology onto us.

A.S. Pingar

Karachi

Published in Dawn, May 10th, 2016