WITH a population of about 38m, and a GNI per capita of $13,360, Poland is the largest economy in central Europe and the sixth-largest in the European Union. In 2015, the $425bn economy grew at a faster pace of 3.6pc compared with 3.3pc in 2014, driven mainly by domestic demand that analysts expect will be sustained this year despite external risks.
The growth is nearly twice as fast as the average in the European Union, estimated by the bloc at 1.9pc. Over the year, investments from domestic sources rose by 2.6pc and from external resources by 16.3pc. The volume of housing construction in 2015 increased by 3.9pc.
The economic growth is expected primarily to be driven by strong households’ consumption indicating improved situation in the labour market. GDP is expected to accelerate to about 3.8-3.9pc. According to the National Statistics Committee optimistic forecast, GDP growth in 2016 could make 5.2pc.
According to the World Bank, Poland needs to improve the efficiency of public finances. Despite strong positive forecasts in economic indicators such as unemployment rate, inflation and expected GDP growth, Poland’s economy enters 2016 amid uncertain environment, mainly due to issues facing the European Union as a whole. The economy is extremely dependent on the health of the European Union.
The deficit on public finances will stand at 2.8pc, in line with the government’s estimates included in the budget 2016.
The IMF Executive Board has reported that Poland’s economic growth is strong and unemployment is declining. The economy continues to benefit from its very strong economic fundamentals and policy frameworks. The current account deficit has narrowed, while international reserves remain adequate. Fiscal consolidation has led to an exit from the Excessive Deficit Procedure, and public debt is sustainable. Poland’s credible inflation targeting regime has been effective in managing deflationary pressures, and inflation has started to pick up.