IT has been reported (Sept 11) that state-run companies of Pakistan and China have finalised a programme under which the unit cost of electricity from the Kohala hydroelectric project for the first 12 years will be 8.9 cents per unit and 5.1 cents for the next 18 years.

This 1,100 MW project is to cost $2.4bn. This cost of $2.4bn is highly inflated. It should not be more than $1.2bn to $1.5bn.

Pakistan has a hydroelectric potential of over 60,000 MW identified and may well approach 100,000 MW. Over 87 projects are in various stages of development, starting with Wapda Vision 2025, based on 42 projects I had identified as the Planning Commission’s Energy Working Group in 1990-91.

I pursued these projects in over 60 articles in the press and at seminars and conferences. The Planning Commission’s Working Group on Hydropower and Alternative Energy, of which I was the chairman in 2010-2011, endorsed massive hydel development to be the main source of energy.

In 1975, at a conference on the role of hydroelectric resources in the development of Pakistan, my recommendations of building two major dams on the Indus after a ranking study were accepted.

The ranking study was delayed until 1981 because of the coup. It was completed in 1984 by Montreal Engineering. They ranked nine projects. Bhasha was ranked the best site technically and economically. Bhasha could have been completed in the early 1990s to give 4,500 MW of cheap hydropower and 8.1 maf of water storage, mitigating floods and increasing Tarbela’s life by 30 to 40 years.

Bhasha is being given and has to be given the highest priority if Pakistan is not to suffer a calamity. But it must be ensured that its cost is not inflated as Kohala’s.

Hydel is the only way we can have abundant and affordable electricity. If negotiated properly and honestly, per unit cost should be in the range of Rs2 to Rs3. Otherwise, if we persist with hydropower at these extremely high costs as Kohala’s, then our huge hydroelectric programme will be in jeopardy.

Without plentiful and affordable electricity, there can be no economic development, irrespective of how many motorways are built.

Imtiaz Ali Qazilbash

Islamabad

Published in Dawn, September 21th, 2014