The third round of talks

PAKISTAN and India are to begin the third round of their composite dialogue on January 17. Although cynics are not too pleased with the pace of progress in the ties between the two neighbours since 2004 when the dialogue began, optimists feel that the talks are serving a useful purpose. The fact is that in the last two years, New Delhi and Islamabad have at least stopped brandishing the sword and threatening to wage a war against each other. They are also trying to resolve the outstanding disputes that divide them while opening up people-to-people channels of contacts and facilitating amicability at the official level in order to create a mechanism for friendly negotiations whenever the need arises. They have succeeded in both respects. The train service between Amritsar and Lahore, and the bus running between New Delhi and Lahore, and Srinagar and Muzaffarabad have brought the people of the two countries closer and improved the political climate in South Asia. The success of these moves has encouraged the two sides to explore new links, and bus services between Amritsar and Lahore and between Amritsar and Nankana Sahib are scheduled to be launched in January. The Munabao-Khokhrapar rail service and a ferry link between Mumbai and Karachi are also on the cards. The advantages of breaking the ice were adequately demonstrated after the October 8 earthquake in Azad Kashmir when the two sides cooperated in the relief operations and five points were opened across the LoC.

The January round of the talks will focus on the Kashmir issue and the CBMs relating to peace and security. Although there might be no tangible achievements to show in respect of the Kashmir issue that is central to the relationship between the two countries, it is a matter of some significance that India and Pakistan are at least now talking about the dispute and exploring various options. They have certainly moved away from their earlier rigid stance. President Musharraf’s latest proposal sent through back channel sources on the demilitarization and self-governance in Kashmir is receiving serious attention in New Delhi. More importantly, the two sides are now involving the Kashmiris in the dialogue — not directly and formally but in a triangular format. Kashmiri leaders from the Indian-held valley have been visiting Azad Kashmir and Pakistan to talk to leaders here and they have had meetings with the Indian leadership in New Delhi to discuss the future of their state.

While a solution to the Kashmir dispute could take some time in coming, confidence-building measures should improve the political climate further. This would not only help in resolving other issues, such as Siachen and the river waters dispute, it would preempt a future crisis from erupting. If relations remain at an even keel, it is unlikely that India-Pakistan equations will be thrown out of gear in the near future. This is important for the peace and security of South Asia. Given the high level of militarization of the region and the fact that the two major South Asian countries have nuclear weapons in their arsenals, it is vital that India and Pakistan should not be locked in confrontation with one another. Tension and polarization make the region like a tinderbox for which the slightest provocation can act as a deadly trigger.

Disaster management

FINALLY, a national disaster management agency is to be up. As announced by Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz on Monday in Islamabad, it will be called the Federal Disaster Relief Management Agency. The need for an organization that could handle relief work during an emergency affecting thousands or perhaps hundreds of thousands of people was acutely felt when the earthquake struck Pakistan and Azad Kashmir on Oct 8. Relief work was undertaken without a coordinating mechanism, and it took weeks before the government set up the Earthquake Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Authority. Till then, government agencies and Pakistani and foreign volunteers and NGOs had been working without any coordination among them. Erra, let us note, is earthquake-specific, and one does not know whether it will be wound up after the job of reconstruction is over in about half a decade’s time. The need for a national disaster management system remains as strong as before, and one hopes that the government will waste no time in implementing the decision announced in principle by the prime minister on Monday. However, there are certain problems associated with such a permanent agency.

To begin with, the proposed organization cannot have a large staff, because in normal times they would be doing nothing and be a burden on the exchequer. What is needed, therefore, is a thinly-staffed organization with cells in all the provinces. Besides having reserves of relief supplies, the agency and its branches should have a coordinating mechanism which should enable it to quickly contact other relief agencies in emergencies and be able to provide relief to the victims of a natural or man-made calamity at the earliest. This requires constant updating of data about relief agencies and personnel, the quantity of medicines, tents, relief supplies, transport and life-saving equipment available with them, the means of contacting Edhi and other relief agencies, handling the rush of supplies from donors and directing them all to the calamity-stricken area. Only experience will show how the National Volunteer Movement develops and in what way the new agency is able to utilize this pool of volunteers for emergency relief operations.

Untrained birth attendants

FOCUSING on the state of maternal and neo-natal health care in the country, a workshop in Karachi drew attention to the high number of births that are being attended to by untrained midwives. This is especially true for the rural areas where more than 85 per cent of births take place at home in the presence of mostly unskilled attendants who are not equipped to deal with sudden complications. Moreover, the dearth of proper medical facilities or transportation in villages makes it difficult for a sick mother or her ailing newborn to reach any hospital, usually at a considerable distance, in time for treatment. The absence of trained midwives and rural health facilities have contributed in no small measure to Pakistan’s infant mortality rate, which at 83 per 1,000 births is the highest in South Asia, and the maternal mortality ratio that is 500 deaths per 100,000 live births.

There is no doubt that there are many areas where the government could work to change the existing state of affairs, including extending immunization coverage and setting up more maternal and child health care centres in villages. But considering that the majority of pregnant women in the country rely on the services of birth attendants, there has to be greater emphasis on teaching these midwives how to tackle delivery complications and provide emergency obstetric care to their patient if the crisis gets out of hand. There have been several attempts to educate traditional birth attendants many of whom, thanks to their training, have spotted and successfully dealt with complications, sometimes referring serious cases to higher medical institutions. But, for there to be a dramatic improvement in reproductive health indicators, it is necessary to impart this training on a wider scale in the rural areas while expanding the outreach to the overall health infrastructure.

Will that be all, George?

IT was a few days before Christmas and verily a Santa was hauled out of a Wal-Mart, where he had patiently been lending an ear for much of the day to the seasonal demands of brats of all shapes and sizes, and driven away to an undisclosed location in a limousine with dark windows by men in dark suits and dark glasses.

“We have a very special assignment for you,” they told him, and refused to say any more.

The vehicle pulled up outside a very big house that looked as if it had recently been whitewashed. Santa was escorted to an empty room, where his elaborate accoutrements and his sack were subjected to a thorough search, which yielded nothing exceptionally alarming. His beard was checked for anthrax. In another chamber, men in what looked like some sort of space suits tested him from top to toe for traces of radiation.

Once it had been established beyond reasonable doubt that he was no suicide bomber, a visibly disconcerted Santa was conveyed to a big hall groaning with Christmas kitsch, and gently but firmly pushed into a plush chair. He sank into it gratefully as the folk in the room, whispering excitedly, formed a disorderly queue.

One of them elbowed his way to the front of the queue and then strode purposefully, with a distinctively simian gait, towards the man with the beard. No one said a word, although bespectacled Dick, pushed into second place, gave him a look that resembled a sneer. But those who knew Dick were well aware that this was his natural expression: no one had ever seen him come up with a convincing smile.

“Ho, ho, ho, Santa,” demanded his interlocutor. “Say ho, ho, ho!” Santa complied in a weary tone that betrayed little interest in conveying joy to the world. “Sit down, boy,” he continued in the same tone, “and tell me what you’d like to find in your sock on Christmas Day. But before that be polite enough to introduce yourself.”

“My name is George, Santa,” beamed George, “but you can call me W or 43 like everyone else, and the first thing that I want is a Patriot Act. The next thing on my list...”

“Hold on a second, George — and if that’s your name, I think that’s just what I’ll call you. Overfamiliarity is frowned upon by my union after three of its members were accused of being paedophiles last Christmas. Now this Patriot Act, don’t you already have one? Are you being greedy, George?”

“No, Santa.... I mean yes, I do have one, but its batteries are about to run out.”

“Then why not get some new batteries?”

“I swear I tried, Santa, but all those unhelpful people in the Congress superstore said they’d recharge the batteries only for a month. Now that’s not much good, is it? I want a Patriot Act that runs on oil, not batteries. I’ve got plenty of oil. I don’t have to ask anyone for oil. I can just take it whenever I like.”

“Ah, that rings a bell: you must be the George a colleague told me about three years or so ago — the boy who wanted a brand new Ay-Rack.”

“Yes, and I demand you tell me where that colleague can be found. I’d like to wring his neck. Waterboarding’s too good for him. Gitmo’s much too good for him. That [expletive deleted] gave me a broken Ay-Rack! I didn’t want a broken Ay-Rack — I wanted....”

“Stop pouting and stop shouting, George. Let’s not forget this is supposed to be the season of peace and goodwill. And let’s keep the record straight. My colleague Kofi did not give you a broken Ay-Rack. I’ve heard you smashed it while grabbing it from another boy.”

“That’s so not true! Sad-Damn was a bad boy. Very bad. Truly wicked. He wouldn’t hand it over even after I pointed all my guns at him. What was I to do? Now you must give me mini-nukes, so that it’s easier the next time around. Surgical strikes that produce perfect little mushroom clouds. I’m dying to see a mushroom cloud, Santa, I really am — even just a teeny-weeny, itsy-bitsy one, pretty please?”

“Stop jumping up and down, George, before you smash my knee like you smashed Ay-Rack. Now, before I hear any more of your wish list, I need to know whether you’ve been naughty or good this year.”

“I’ve been good, really good, as good as I possibly could. You’ve got to trust me. I’ll tell you who’s been naughty. It’s all those Al-Canada types like.... like.... well, like Sad-Damn, who says I beat him up after taking away Ay-Rack, which isn’t really true, and like Ayman, who keeps releasing all these pirated X-rated videos full of violence and you can’t understand a word, very bad chap, and all the insurgents, they don’t deserve any gifts. And Osama’s probably been naughty, except we don’t know where he is or what he’s been up to. And don’t give anything to Hugo Chavez, who’s been trying to sell oil cheap to poor Americans — I mean, how low can you go? — or to his new friend, Evil Immorales, who I’m told is ingenious, how silly is that? I mean no ingenious person could get anywhere close to power in this country, and that’s what makes America great...” “I think you mean indigenous, George. But never mind. I’m not interested in your opinions about other people, I just wanted to know....”

“Hang on, Santa, I haven’t told you who else has been good. Surprise, surprise, but it isn’t only me. I mean, where would I be without my mentor, Dick? He doesn’t live in a bunker anymore, so he’ll be waiting for you. Give him a new heart or some other organ. He deserves something big. So does Condi — she’s been veeeerrrrry good. Poor Karl could do with a reprieve. Rummy’s been good too, at least better than before. Nothing for Colon this time, thank you. And Wolfie doesn’t need anything — I gave him a whole bank of some sort not too long ago.”

“LISTEN to me, George: there will be no presents at all for you if you go on raving this way. I wanted you to evaluate YOURSELF, not everyone else in the world. Now, I hear you’ve been eavesdropping on fellow Americans. That isn’t nice, is it, George?”

“Bloody liberal media! Why couldn’t The New York Times have sat on that report for a few more years? I’m going to make an example of whoever leaked it. I have my suspicions. Ever heard of Valerie Plame? Elementary, my dear Santa. And you can do your bit for national security: make a gift of all extremist newspapers such as the Times and the Post and all the liberal TV networks to Rupert Murdoch. Then Americans will only hear and read the whole truth and nothing but the truth. Wouldn’t you call that a fair and balanced proposition?”

“You haven’t answered my question, George. Eavesdropping?”

“Well, just a bit. Sometimes. And it’s only for their own good.”

“Did you not know it was illegal?”

“All’s fair in war, Santa. There are terrorists everywhere. They hate us, they’re coming to get us, some of them are already here, we’ve got to get them first. So, anything goes. Can you imagine, it’s even illegal for us to crack a few heads and break a few bones in trying to get the answers we want, so we have to send our prisoners — and our interrogators, of course — to other countries where there are no such namby-pamby rules. All for the sake of preserving democracy. On the other hand, things like abortion are legal. And they want the same for gay marriage. These are threats to our way of life. I’m sick of pleading with the Congress boys to give passing grades to my handpicked judges, who could fix the Constitution in a jiff. That’s why another thing I want this Christmas is a full bench of the Supreme Court. And by the way, the Bible says nothing against listening to phone calls and interspecting emails.”

“Perhaps it doesn’t, George, but it does say thou shalt not kill, and you’ve been doing quite a bit of that lately, haven’t you?” “I haven’t touched a gun or pushed a button all year.”

“White phosphorus and Fallujah, George?”

“Ask Rummy or Dick about that. Besides, that was last year. What is this anyway, an inquidisposition? And before I forget, I also want an Intelligible Design kit. That’s indispensibubble for combating the Bolshevik evolutionaries.”

“It’s not an inquisition, George, I really need to know. I’ll decide what’s indispensable or not, and in your case the concept of Intelligent Design seems like a contradiction in terms. Now, what about your response to Katrina?”

“I don’t think you’re Santa at all. You must be an impostor. I don’t like your beard. Why do you wear red? Are you a communist? Security!”

As the Secret Service prepares to escort Santa from the premises, Dick rushes up. “This won’t take a moment, Mr Claus,” he mutters. “I have only one request: everything that gets smashed, the reconstruction contract must go to Halliburton.”

“I’m only a Santa,” murmurs the man in red as he is led away. “What you guys need is a psychiatrist.”

Democracy’s high price

A YEAR after Ukraine’s Orange Revolution, Russia’s effort to combat the spread of democracy in Eastern Europe continues unabated. Its latest weapon is natural gas.

As the heating season got underway this month, Moscow announced through its state-controlled energy company, Gazprom, that it would more than triple the price it charges Ukraine for gas supplies, to $160 per 1,000 cubic meters. When Ukraine’s government sought to negotiate a more gradual increase, Moscow threatened to raise the price further, to more than $200, or cut off supplies as of Jan. 1.

Russian President Vladimir Putin chose to trigger this crisis just as Ukraine approaches a crucial parliamentary election on March 26. Thanks to Mr Putin, soaring energy prices for Ukrainian consumers may be a punishing issue for the former Orange revolutionaries.

Next door in Belarus, pro-Moscow President Alexander Lukashenko has no such worries. He, too, has an election coming up, on March 19; he abruptly scheduled it last week, the day after holding a summit meeting with Mr. Putin. At that meeting, Mr Putin agreed to hold the price of gas for Belarus steady next year, at $46 per 1,000 cubic meters. Belarus’s democratic opposition, which had been preparing for a presidential election in July, was left with one week to register its candidate and just a few more to campaign, without the benefit of mass media, money or the right to free assembly.

Western leaders tended to assume after the Orange Revolution that Ukraine had turned the corner toward democracy and could be expected to follow the path of other former European communist states, such as Poland and Hungary.

Belarus, they hoped, might be next: President Bush publicly singled it out as “Europe’s last dictatorship,” and both Congress and the European Union approved multimillion-dollar programmes to support pro-democracy movements.

But the attention of Western governments to Eastern Europe has slackened in recent months.—The Washington Post