More power at less cost
THE federal government has approved the setting up of thermal power projects producing about 3,000MW and has also issued letters of interest (LoIs) for 1,804MW of hydropower projects. All of this 4,804MW of power is to be produced by the private sector. The total installed power generation capacity in the country at present is 19,389 MW, but when adjusted against high transmission, distribution and other losses and pilferage, this capacity falls significantly short of the current annual demand of 15,500MW. In the next five years, this demand is estimated to go up to 21,500MW, increasing at the rate of almost eight per cent annually. However, even if all the approved projects, both thermal and hydroelectric, come on stream by 2010, and the demand continues to rise at the rate of nearly eight per cent annually, the country will still be facing a demand-supply gap of over 1,000MW. So, in order to be able to bridge the gap we must draw up a strategy to control the losses and leaks which amount to an estimated 25 per cent of the total generation and then turn this strategy into an action plan to be implemented methodically.
Next, in view of the fact that our gas reserves are depleting fast and new discoveries have become very rare and the fact that the proposed gas pipelines from Central Asian countries, Iran and Qatar are still at a discussion stage and also considering that the national debate on building large dams continues to be contentious and inconclusive, it has become important that a more concerted effort is made to exploit the country’s huge coal reserves for power production. The coalfields in Sindh province alone have a proven reserve of 175 billion tons. But because of a number of factors, some of which are wholly inexcusable, these reserves have remained largely unutilized. The present share of coal in the overall energy mix is only about five per cent, which needs to be increased to 25-30 per cent in the next five to 10 years in order for the country to be able to grow at an average rate of over eight per cent at an economic cost.
It may be noted that in India the share of coal was as high as 54.5 per cent in the total energy mix in 2002. Power generation accounts for 70 per cent of India’s total coal consumption. Despite the fact that Indian coal is of poorer quality than ours because of its low caloric content and is high in ash and located far from major consumption centres, its coal consumption is estimated to increase to 510 million short tons by 2020 from 393 short tons in 2002. China is producing more than half of its electricity through thermal power stations run by coal. We have already switched almost 80 per cent of the cement industry to indigenous coal from furnace oil that saves considerable foreign exchange. The conversion of all cement units to coal would generate a demand for 2.5 million tons of coal per annum by 2010. If in the next five to 10 years appropriate technologies are put to work for making a profitable use of coal in thermal power plants, Pakistan would not only be able to accelerate the overall economic growth rate, but also save precious foreign exchange in the process.
Bird flu threat?
WILD birds from the colder climes of Central Asia and Siberia are once again flying south to nest in Pakistan’s wetlands during the winter months. While at any other time this would have been an annual event to look forward to, there are fears that many among the flocks could be carriers of the more virulent strains — the H5N1 specifically — of the dreaded bird flu virus. Already there have been reports that dead migratory birds have been spotted in southern Sindh, although it is not clear whether avian flu was responsible for the deaths. Considering that tests carried out on dead waterfowl in some countries in the region concluded that the birds had been infected by the H5N1 strain, Pakistan has much to be worried about. It is true that human deaths resulting from H5N1 in some countries have been few and there have been only a handful of cases where human-to-human transmission of the virus is suspected. But the fact that the H5N1 variant that originated in Asia has now crossed over to Europe means that it could infect more birds, and consequently, more people.
Moreover, scientists expect the virus to mutate in such away as to become directly transmissible between people, thus unleashing a pandemic for which there is no preventive vaccine. Pakistan has taken some positive steps to keep the virus at bay. It has banned the import of poultry products and pet birds. According to one government official, it has also chalked out a plan to deal with an outbreak of flu, although the details of this are not yet available. It has taken these steps as memories of the last outbreak of avian flu among poultry that resulted in the death of three million chickens two years ago are still fresh. The government will now have to take further measures to ensure that domesticated fowl does not come into contact with wild birds. In this context, it would be advisable to heed the proposal of one environmental body to delay issuing hunting permits so that migratory birds can be monitored for some time.
Caring for expectant mothers
FRIDAY’S decision by the Parliamentarian Doctors Forum (PDF) to set up three mobile delivery centres to attend to expectant mothers in the earthquake-hit areas is welcome. The UN estimates that as many as 40,000 pregnant women were affected by the earthquake whose tremors may have triggered miscarriages or premature labour. Pregnant survivors are especially susceptible to infectious diseases and there is an acute shortage of medicines related to mother and child care which needs urgent attention. One report says that as many as 300 women were giving birth every day in makeshift hospitals or remote areas where no aid has reached yet. Recognizing the gravity of the problem, the PDF plans to dispatch female gynaecologists to conduct deliveries as it is fully aware that many women may not want to be examined by male doctors, irrespective of how dangerous their condition is. The UN has also expressed concern at how Pakistan’s already dismal statistics on infant mortality could worsen in this situation.
According to a Unicef study on child mortality rates last year, Pakistan had 107 deaths per 1,000 while the country was among 12 nations that accounted for two-thirds of the deaths of pregnant women worldwide. These depressing figures have so far been ignored but at a critical time like this, people’s health requires urgent attention. UNFPA is sending specific reproductive health kits but it may not prove to be sufficient so appeals should be made for more. While many expectant mothers’ traumatic stories have appeared in the press, the PDF needs to get to many other women who have yet to see any medical aid reach their inaccessible areas. Because the medical and psychological needs of expectant mothers require specific care, the government would be well advised to consider opening appropriate clinics all over the country.
Regional rivalries over Afghanistan
AS war-ravaged Afghanistan appears headed for economic recovery, there are signs of renewed interest, both by global and regional powers, in building ties with it. The US, which returned in force after 9/11, after having walked away in 1989, following the Soviet withdrawal, has a multitude of reasons, strategic, economic and political, to stay on and to protect its global interests now focused in Asia.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice recently visited Central Asia, Afghanistan and South Asia as new challenges emerged in Syria and Iran, while Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld visited China. With oil prices rising, and competition for control of the world’s largest reserves of oil and gas intensifying, the US not only wants to maintain its hold on the oil rich region, but is increasingly concerned with containing the terrorist threat on the one hand, and China’s emerging challenge on the other.
Afghanistan has assumed crucial importance as the gateway to Central Asia, and the transition point to South Asia. The initiatives being taken by its neighbours to build up their influence cannot but be of great interest to Washington.
As the results of the recent parliamentary elections in Afghanistan gradually unfold it is clear that President Hamid Karzai, who himself gained democratic credentials by his election earlier in the year, is assured of a continuing role in post 9/11 Afghanistan. The US has stepped up its military involvement in Afghanistan, as has Nato, to help establish the writ of the government throughout the country, though this will be gradual process.
In fact, there has been an increase in insurgency by the Taliban, so that the number of casualties among the US military and the ISAF (International Security Assistance Force) soldiers, now drawn from Nato, has gone up steeply. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, made it clear during her visit that the US would maintain its military presence, without any deadline.
The task of reconstruction has started, and many governments that made commitments in pledging conference at Bonn and Tokyo, have begun to implement some of the projects, specially those pertaining to education, health and the restoration of the infrastructure. Private construction and repairs of damaged properties have also picked up momentum.
Given Afghanistan’s strategic location, and the prospect of substantial funds that are likely to be available, the neighbouring countries have stepped up trade links. As Pakistan has the longest border with land-locked Afghanistan, movement of both goods and labour to the country has increased in response to the demand. Iran has also increased its involvement in Afghanistan, helped by the fact that Persian is spoken widely there. Russia is utilizing its influence in the adjoining former Soviet republics of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan to re-establish its historic role in Afghanistan and exporting a variety of goods, with an eye on oil and gas pipelines in the region.
One major country that lacks common borders with Afghanistan, but is determined to re-establish close political and economic links with Kabul is India. While seeking transit facilities through Pakistan, India is investing heavily in alternative outlets from Afghanistan through Iran. This would not only facilitate Indian exports to Afghanistan through its ports, but would also confer benefits on Iran.
An Iranian newspaper reported that the authorities in Pakistan were inclined to exploit Afghan dependence on Karachi port by holding up unloading essential supplies and thus creating artificial shortages and price hikes in Afghanistan. The paper also referred to constant pilferage from containers and trucks on their way to Afghanistan, with the goods being sold in Peshawar. The incident involving the theft of coins minted for Afghanistan by Germany had led President Karzai to bring up the matter with President Musharraf.
India was spending a part of the $500 million aid promised to Afghanistan on this road and Iran was engaged in improving the road from Zaranj to Chabahar, its port on the Persian Gulf closest to India. There was likely to be a substantial diversion of Afghan trade to the shorter route through Iran, and India was banking on increasing its exports substantially, as its goods were cheaper owing to the economies of scale.
Pakistan has not been oblivious to India’s plans, and activities that are designed to undermine Pakistan’s interests. New Delhi has capitalized on the resentment that had developed among various segments of the Afghan population against Pakistan on account of changes in its polices. The support extended to the Taliban between 1994 and 2000 had alienated the Northern Alliance, while the decision after 9/11 to join the US in its war against the Taliban could not but arouse Pashtun ire. Pakistan, therefore, decided not to seek any political role in the post 9/11 period, confining itself to supporting the Bonn process, and extending maximum help for Afghan reconstruction.
India, which had patronized the leadership of the Northern Alliance, now moved decisively to repair its relations with Afghanistan, that had been adversely affected by its support to Soviet intervention in 1979. The new official hierarchy in Kabul has welcomed various gestures from New Delhi including gifts of buses and civilian aircraft, and help with education and health services.
President Karzai realized the need to adopt a conciliatory policy towards Pakistan, while President Musharraf responded by backing him and strengthening his hand. The two countries found it necessary to collaborate in the fight against terrorists, the remnants of Al Qaeda and Taliban militants who sought shelter in Pakistan’s tribal area. India, prior to the revival of the peace process with Pakistan, used the numerous consulates it had established in Afghanistan, to spread disaffection among sections of the local population in NWFP and Balochistan that remained opposed to US intervention in the region, and Pakistan’s support for it.
Pakistan has stepped up practical measures to win the support of the present regime in Kabul, and to counter India’s moves to increase its influence as a part of its long-term strategy to emerge as the regional great power. Islamabad will launch major projects in health care, education and communication at a cost of Rs 4 billion ($67 million). Health projects include the Jinnah hospital to be built at a cost of Rs 1.2 billion, a kidney centre at Jalalabad for Rs 420 million and another hospital in Logar province. Pakistan will also build a science faculty block at Nangarhar University. Pakistan would spend over Rs 2 billion in building the 76km long Torkham-Jalalabad highway, and is also imparting police training to Afghan officers.
It can be said that India is working jointly with Iran to reduce Afghan dependence on Pakistan. Tehran has consistently sought to increase its presence in Afghanistan. The US, which views Iran in a hostile light, would be inclined to oppose the Indo-Iranian entente in Afghanistan. But since Washington has adopted India as its strategic partner in the Indian Ocean region and is more or less committed to supporting New Delhi’s ambition to become the dominant power in this region.
A certain element of competition for trade and political influence among countries bordering Afghanistan is inevitable. Iranian ambitions since the Islamic revolution have also worried the Arab rulers of Gulf states, some of which have large Shia populations. The US role in the region is likely to centre on its own interests and perceptions. With its military and nuclear relationship with India assuming unprecedented dimensions, it may not seek to impede Indo-Iranian cooperation except indirectly, by urging Pakistan to provide India transit facilities to Afghanistan, since this route is certainly more economical than the sea-land route through Iran.
China is likely to get more involved in the revival of the ancient silk route that linked it with Central and South Asia. As a matter of principle China remains opposed to the hegemonic approach of the US, and one of the objectives of launching the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is to help promote a multipolar world order. Pakistan, India and Iran have become observers in the SCO this year and are candidates for full membership.
The US strategy in Asia is clearly to build up a network of alliances, with Israel and India emerging as key players, both in the war on terrorism, and with regard to the long-term objectives of controlling oil and gas reserves on the one hand, and keeping the sea-lanes across the Indian Ocean open on the other.
So long as it is militarily present in Afghanistan the US is unlikely to allow the Indo-Iranian partnership to flourish. Iran may acquire easier access to Afghanistan for its own trade, but India would find it economically and politically more expedient to secure transit rights through Pakistan.
For political reasons including Iran’s sectarian and cultural inclinations, the Central Asian states may eventually prefer to use Afghanistan’s transit facilities, both for land transport and for pipelines, so that the exit to the sea would be routed through Pakistan. China would also be interested in reviving the ancient silk route to the west and link up through the Karakoram Highway with Pakistani ports. We need to developed our communications infrastructure keeping these prospects in mind.
Incidentally both India and Pakistan would like to expand Saarc. The difference is that India is more keen to sponsor Afghanistan, while Pakistan accords priority to China.
The writer is a former ambassador.