Post-referendum choices

THE ratification of the draft constitution by an overwhelming majority takes the democratic process in Iraq a step forward. Given the fact that the Shias and Kurds were both in favour of the constitution, the nearly 80 per cent ‘yes’ vote should surprise no one. If there had been a ‘no’ vote in any three of Iraq’s 18 provinces with a two-thirds majority, the draft charter would have stood rejected. However, in only two predominantly Sunni provinces — Anbar and Salahuddin — was there a ‘no’ vote by a two-thirds majority. Nineveh then clinched the issue when the ‘no’ lobby could come up with only a 55 per cent vote. The constitution was drafted by the transitional assembly elected in January this year. Now elections are to be held in December for a parliament which will elect a new government. If things go well, by the end of the year an elected government should be in place in Iraq. However, there are many pitfalls ahead. Even though UN monitors have termed the vote quite fair, some Sunni leaders have claimed that the referendum was manipulated. This gives an indication of the Sunni perception of the issue.

Since the formation of Iraq on the ruins of the Ottoman empire in the wake of World War I, the Sunni minority has dominated Iraq. Even though this was invariably in the form of rule by dictators and tyrants — and Sunni dissidents, too, suffered as much as Shia and Kurdish opposition groups — the Sunnis nevertheless monopolized all state institutions. Since the fall of the Baathist regime, however, the Sunni leadership does not seem to have reconciled itself to the new reality. There is no recognized political party or alliance that could claim to speak for all Sunnis, and the group that is leading the resistance to the US-led military presence is headed by Abu Musab Zarqawi, who is a Jordanian. Given the fact that the Shia-Kurdish alliance is opposed to him, he will find it hard to carry on with his terrorism for long.

The Sunni leadership must now grasp reality in a broader context. Iraq needs to get rid of foreign forces on its soil, and it needs post-war reconstruction. Neither task can be achieved through divisive politics or terrorism. In fact, continued anarchy provides a justification for Washington to continue with its virtual occupation of Iraq. The only choice before the Sunni leadership is to make common cause with the Shias and Kurds and carry forward the democratic process. Sitting on the sidelines or letting the Zarqawi group continue with its terrorist activities will hardly advance the Sunni cause or lead to a withdrawal of foreign forces. The situation is critical, because a failure of the democratic process could accentuate fissiparous tendencies in Iraq. The Kurds have enjoyed virtual autonomy since the end of the first Gulf war. A further weakening of the Baghdad government could strengthen separatist forces in Kurdistan, and this could lead to Iraq’s dismemberment. The vote in favour of the constitution represents the wishes of nearly 80 per cent of the people. As Iraqis and Arabs it is the Sunni leaders’ duty to respect these wishes instead of flouting them. In the larger interest of the Arab-Islamic world, the Sunni leadership has no choice but to join the representative process. A stable and democratic government alone can ensure the withdrawal of foreign forces and begin the task of post-war reconstruction.

Perverse happenings

A NEW problem of a very serious nature has come to the fore in the earthquake-affected areas of Azad Kashmir and the NWFP. This is the insecurity faced by women and children who constitute the majority of the victims. Horrendous cases have been reported of children being kidnapped and women being sold into prostitution or beggary. As the relief operations focused on providing shelter, food and medical care, the potential danger of human trafficking was not recognized initially until relief workers noted the mysterious disappearance of some of the women and children whom they had attended to. According to another report, quite a number of lady health visitors who were helping with the relief work are now untraceable. It reflects on the perversity of a section of our society and the oppressive conditions that characterize the lot of women in this country that they have not been spared even in these times of crisis.

This being the situation, it is essential that the authorities beef up security for women and children in the earthquake hit areas. At present it is not even known how many women and children have been affected. According to Unicef’s tentative figures, 1.7 million children have been displaced by the calamity. But how many of them have been orphaned or separated from their parents is not accurately known. Neither do we have any estimates of the number of widows who need support. Various agencies such as Unicef and the NWFP’s social welfare department are looking into this matter. The children are being registered and Interpol has offered its assistance in developing a database which will help check and monitor the criminal movements around the health facilities from where many of the unfortunate women and children have disappeared. The NWFP government has also done a commendable job by setting up a welfare home in Peshawar to accommodate helpless women and children until they can be permanently rehabilitated. With a capacity for 300 people, which can be increased to 1,000, this is, however, like a drop in the ocean. But at least a beginning has been made and one hopes that the numerous NGOs will also come forward to help.

Safety precautions

THE fire that broke out in a tent in a village in Balakot on Sunday night, killing a 12-year-old girl and causing serious burns to nine other persons, is a reminder of the horrors that can occur if proper precautions are not taken. The fire was reportedly caused by a candle that was left burning inside a family’s tent. Two of the injured children suffered 80 per cent burns (they were shifted to Kharian for treatment) while several other tents were damaged, along with relief items meant for earthquake victims. This incident highlights the need to ensure proper preventative care especially since all energies are focussed on evacuating the injured to safer places. While Sunday’s damage was minor compared to what was witnessed in Saudi Arabia in 1997, when 340 people died during a fire that ripped through Haj pilgrims’ tents, there should be no complacency on the part of the administration responsible for overseeing a smooth functioning of the tent villages that have been set up.

As international agencies respond to Pakistan’s desperate plea for tents, it will prove difficult to provide quake victims with only fire-proof, winterized tents as there is an acute shortage of these. Furthermore, harsh weather and rains mean that many may ignore such safety precautions as not using a gas cooker inside a tent, because they are hungry or feeling cold. While everyone is sympathetic to the trauma victims have had to endure, there should be no compromise on their safety or health. Those in charge of tent villages will have to work hard to raise awareness among people on what can, and cannot, be used in and around the tents. Advice also needs to be given on sanitation and the spread of diseases, given that many have been exposed to squalid conditions.

Rehabilitation phase to be crucial

THE reconstruction of the quake-devastated areas of Azad Kashmir and the northern NWFP would cost well beyond $5 billion. That is to cover the total destruction inclusive of the infrastructure caused to the vast area in both the regions by the October 8 disaster. The earlier UN estimate was that the rehabilitation and the reconstruction would take 5-10 years, but since the Pakistan government is impatient to complete the task quicker, that may be accomplished within the five-year period.

There is also the danger that the world may lose interest in this disaster after some time as natural calamities occur elsewhere later. So time is of the essence in this area. The extent of rehabilitation work and its quality would depend on the volume of aid available and the promptness with which it is delivered.

The UN officials led by secretary-general Kofi Annan are frantic in their efforts to get larger aid. They want the donors to become alive to the dimensions of the disaster or its scale and help urgently in avoiding a disaster within the disaster. They want enough food, safe shelter for the winter and adequate medical attention to be made available within three weeks. They want more tents delivered to them by a larger number of helicopters than are available now. Hence Kofi Annan is issuing one frantic appeal after another for larger aid and relief supplies.

The UN officials are issuing the appeals on the basis of their first hand experience of the aftermath of such tragedies in other countries. They have seen how after the initial wave of sympathy and support the survivors received little help as the attention of the world was diverted to other areas of disasters. They are aware of the complex problem of relief and rehabilitation and their high costs to reach satisfactory solutions. And hence the world must take serious note of their appeals.

Responding to their appeal the European Union proposes to commit 96 million dollars in fresh aid for reconstruction and relief activities. This is in addition to the 13.6 million euros of emergency humanitarian aid already released, which brings the total of the European Union aid to 111.7 million dollars. The Nato too has responded to Kofi Annan‘s appeals and is sending 1,000 troops to participate in the reconstruction work. A Nato spokesman has explained that the organization is not a relief agency but can participate in the reconstruction work with its qualified personnel.

The international pledging conference summoned by United Nations in Geneva would indicate the extent of additional aid available for the emergency relief work. According to reports from Washington, the Pakistan government is holding another such conference for seeking aid pledges for reconstruction and the US is expected to play a major role in that.

While around 2,000 devastated villages are yet not accessible to the rescuers, 18 days after the tragedy struck those regions, General Zuabair, Chairman of the Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority says the assessment of the damage caused by the quake would be completed by November 15. I doubt whether that would be a complete or accurate assessment in view of the too many gaps in information or access to the victims.

There are also claims from all sides for payment of compensation for the survivors before Eid. What does that mean in respect of compensating loss of houses or lands. Will they be provided temporary accommodation now or will both the tasks be done on the basis of part payment now and later? The tragedy is more complex than the recent Asian Tsunami in which the death toll was far higher, 250,000, and the affected countries of South East Asia and South Asia were many.

But the problems in the affected areas of Azad Kashmir and the NWFP are far too many and far more complex. In the case of Tsunami the access could be through the sea. But it is not possible in the case of highly mountainous terrain which is inaccessible to the relief workers. The broken roads blocked the passage of the relief workers, rain and snow added to the affliction where the helicopters could not reach.

Where the modern methods of transportation failed, the mules could have helped but many mules died and enough did not survive to carry the relief goods and medicines. Hence with the winter approaching fast there was need for urgency in providing relief and executing the rehabilitation work. To add to the complication, there have been about 850 aftershocks, which hamper the work. In one case a young girl buried under the debris was almost saved, but the aftershocks came and the European relief workers left the scene temporarily. When they returned she was dead and they were too distressed.

Shifting survivors from shattered homes is a tough task, as they would not want to leave the sites of their homes and hearts, though destroyed. And there are not enough tents to accommodate them, nor enough helicopters to carry supplies to them. Delivering relief goods to them, apart from the initial phase, is not a satisfactory operation.

The problem of ownership of the land where the devastated homes are located and disputes over titles will continue to vex the rehabilitation officials and give rise to legal disputes. The president wants two large tented cities to come up with modern facilities. The prime minister wants to replace the shattered villages with tented towns. Ultimately it may be for the chairman of the reconstruction authority to decide the details of such towns.

John Wall of the World Bank in Pakistan has cautioned the government against some serious problems that may arise when the rehabilitation work begins unless appropriate measures are taken in advance to minimize risks and ensure compensation to the rightful and deserving affectees.

He says the reconstruction work would take four to five years. Such situations encourage some to indulge in serious crimes such as grabbing of land in damaged areas and filing of wrong claims. John wall says the delay in tackling the situation on the ground could simply multiply the woes of the affectees. He argues that instead of the deserving sufferers, influential persons may try to grab a maximum benefits. He has suggested a house-to-house survey to establish the ownership of damaged property and land.

The tragedy is bringing India and Pakistan closer for relief work. First, through relief supplies and trains and moving up to open the Line of Control to provide relief. The fact is the devastated areas in Pakistan are more accessible through the Indian occupied Kashmir than through the damaged highways and byways of Pakistan. And they are to be used now.

Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, the moderate Kashmiri leader, had wanted all the seven points for crossing the LOC to be opened and he had denounced the LOC as the Line of Evil. President Musharraf had offered to open five sectors. Now India has agreed to open three of them. Details of the operation of the points to be opened are to be settled by a conference of the two countries on Friday.

If the three points of crossing are well used, good results can follow and the Kashmiris of the divided families can comfort each other. Now the Organization of Islamic Countries along with the Islamic Development Bank has come into action. It has asked its members to attend the Geneva conference for pledging relief and donate generously.

The contributions of the OIC states to the relief fund is about 70 per cent of the total relief pledged, says its secretary-general. Among them are Saudi Arabia’s $135 million, Turkey’s share of $150 million and OIC’s share of $251 million. President Musharraf wanted the OIC to set up a disaster relief organization. But the OIC has already one such organization and it will be activated soon. The poignancy of the tragedy in Muzaffarabad is borne out by the fact that all the 600 college girls accommodated in two hostels were killed by the quake.

The UN relief officials say the aid must reach the survivors within three weeks as after that heavy snow will start falling and block access to them.