Challenge of reconstruction

THE search and rescue phase in the worst earthquake disaster that ravaged Azad Kashmir and the NWFP is almost over 12 days after the disaster struck the doomed area. The relief phase is now on. But there are still a large number of victims in pockets not accessible to the national or international rescue teams because of the nature of the terrain and adverse weather conditions. Miracles still happen as kids walk out of the rubble ten days after the tragedy and are greeted by their brothers and sisters.

The rising number of the killed has been placed at over 50,000, that of the injured at over 63,000 and of those rendered homeless at over 3.3 million. These are tentative figures, which can increase further as more disclosures are made of the casualties. The injured are so many, that in addition to treating them in hospitals in Karachi, they have to be flown to the UAE for surgical operations. Medical facilities in Pakistan in civilian, military and private and public sectors are too inadequate to meet the demand, particularly after the hitherto inaccessible pockets of the isolated victims are opened up.

Many of the foreign countries are being truly generous. These include Saudi Arabia which has donated 133 million dollars at the initiative of King Abdullah. President Bush has also been very gracious in voicing his concern for the victims and has raised the aid.

India has also shown real concern for helping the victims and allowing Pakistani helicopters to fly over the Line of Control in Kashmir in the no-fly zone. The Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has taken a personal interest in directing the Indian relief offer.

Prime minister Shaukat Aziz has spoken of creating modern cities In place of the destroyed towns led by Muzzafarabad, capital of Azad Kashmir. Whether the mountainous area is suitable for creating modern cities and whether the people of the zone will agree to live in them remains to be ascertained. It is also to be known whether we can afford the cost of building such cities or will the world bear it is a matter of argument.

The prime minister says the loss to the infrastructure, private and public sectors, is over five million dollars and he has come up with a twelve point rehabilitation and reconstruction plan with key details to be filled out. The world has so far pledged 500 million Dollars. The UN “Flash” appeal is for 275 million dollars which the UN secretary-general wants to be enhanced greatly. He has called for a special donors conference on the lines of that convened for the Tsunami victims.

The world gave in all 10 billion Dollars for the Tsunami victims whose total death toll was over 250,000, spread over many countries. But the destruction of homes and hearts was far less and the problem of access to the ravaged areas was much less as they could be accessed through the sea. And now we live in a world suffering from aid-fatigue, so how much will the world finally commit remains to be seen. President Musharraf talks of tented areas replacing the destroyed homes for the present.

But currently there is an acute shortage of tents so Mr Shaukat Aziz has desperately appealed for “tents, tents and tents.” And our high commissioner in India has been asked to get more tents from India, which can reach Pakistan quick.

Donations for relief at home in money and goods have been generous. The prime minister gave the figure of three billion rupees or 500,000 dollars, but that is too small compared to the real need. Jan Egeland, The UN deputy secretary-general for disaster relief says it will take up to 10 years to rebuild the devastated area. That is much too long. We can do that much earlier, says Shaukat Aziz.

It should be accomplished much quicker through domestic and international efforts. We should turn this disaster into an opportunity for reconstruction, says Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz. But What matters is the cost and where the money will come from and to what extent we will be ready to redirect expenditure on development in other areas to the rebuilding of the ravaged areas. The ILO has already said the quake has caused 1.1 million loss of jobs and employment revenues have to be found for them.

What kind of impact will the disaster have on the economy, particularly on the high growth rate? The IMF says Pakistan’s economic progress will not be affected by the earthquake and it is ready to render all the assistance it can to help Pakistan overcome its crisis. It is, however, too early to specify the impact of the quake on the economy particularly on the economic growth which has already been affected by the soaring oil price. But it will certainly have an impact on the economy and the extent of that depends on the quantum of external aid apart from the usual donor agency loans.

Those who were shouting loud that the earthquake with its large human and material losses will have no impact on the economy as such reasons contribute very little to the economy of the country may not be right. These are politically sensitive regions and the people do not like to be taken lightly, particularly the Kashmiris. Mirwaiz Umar Farooq has already described the Line of Control as an evil line that barred sisters and brothers from meeting each other. He accused Indian and Pakistani governments of playing politics with relief. The affected areas are earthquake prone and any reconstruction has to take into account that the new structures will have to be made earthquake proof. That may cost more money, though not too much.

While the cost of reconstruction can be heavy and the rebuilding cannot be delayed, there can be fall in revenues from the budgeted tax revenue of 690 billion apart from the fall in oil surcharge following the rise in oil prices.

The rich donors, corporate sector entities and banks will enjoy tax exemption on the donations, which they may continue to make even after the relief phase is over. To that extent the tax revenues would be reduced and the official revenues will suffer.

Workers from that region work in factories and other establishments in Karachi, Lahore, etc., they contribute to the tax revenues through indirect taxes. Now they will be on the dole for some months and will not pay electricity bills for three months. Construction work in particular will suffer, as the people of the region will prefer to work in their own area and participate in rebuilding it. The loss of purchasing power will also affect their indirect tax contribution.

The Azad Kashmir and the NWFP governments have been financially subsidized by the federal government a great deal and that could strain the financial resources of the centre even more now. The NWFP chief minister has spoken of the federal government giving his province 32 billion rupees in addition to rupees 1.5 billion for immediate relief . The cost of rebuilding of the infrastructure can be heavy and the centre has to meet a large part of that.

The task of shifting the people from their old residential areas to new areas under tents or other accommodation can be quite a problem. They will resist giving up their ancestral homes and hearts and farmlands titled to them and taking on new jobs with which they are not familiar even temporarily. They would want to go back to their lands or homes as soon as possible and that can create a great many complications, particularly when there are disputes about the title for the land.

What matters is not only accommodating many of the displaced, but also providing jobs to many of them, now estimated at 1.1 million unemployed. They may not like to come back to the cities leaving their womenfolk or broken families in the villages after the tremendous trauma they have suffered.

So creating employment for them will be quite a task for the government. That could mean creating or promoting a large number of SMEs units close to their homes and making a success of that which can be pretty costly.

The mountain people love their land but letting them stay there and building adequate infrastructure including communication system and road network as in Switzerland can be tough, so the government has a difficult task ahead that cannot be easily solved.

What little tourist attraction the region had and its modest tourist earnings from treking will also suffer. But the rebuilt zone eventually will have greater attraction if enough provision is made for them later.

The region was slowly opening up to domestic tourism, but that has received a severe setback. It is unfortunate that when the country was opening up its heart for the victims, the profiteers were at work in several places including the transporters who charged a 100 per cent more for transporting relief goods from Karachi. Some industrialists in Karachi even sent expired canned food to the victims, which was detected well in advance, and some even robbed the relief goods.

Jan Egeland has warned the country against “a disaster within a disaster”. Too many people should not die for want of relief or medical treatment. The need of the hour as it rains heavily in the region and winter approaches is more helicopters, at least 100 in number. And it is indeed welcome that the US is supplementing its helicopter force of 13 with 24 more. Helicopters and tents seem to be the need of the hour as it has begun snowing in the region and they should be procured at any cost.

The prime minister’s decision not to let the orphans be adopted by some persons is proper; otherwise the children can be misused. Already there have been reports of kidnapping of three children and an attempt to kidnap a 13-year-old girl from a hospital in Islamabad, so there is no hurry for giving the children for adoption right now.

What has happened in the north and the earthquake tremors in Karachi has also drawn the attention of the people to the gross inadequacy of facilities in the city to cope with any calamity, let alone a major earthquake. It does not have the facilities to cope with even a major fire as the fire tenders are mostly in the workshop. A crisis unit should study the situation in Karachi and come up with a comprehensive report. Adequate action should follow that.

Hard task ahead

IT is time to stand back and take a good look at Kashmir. There has been a monumental tragedy. The figures keep rising every day — 50,000 dead, 70,000 injured, 2.5 million homeless, millions traumatized. These are mere statistics. The real issue is: What next?

There are three distinct phases in the wake of an earthquake. First, of course, is first aid — the immediate rescue and relief stage, when the trapped, the injured, and the survivors have to be cared for and the dead bodies relieved. Speed is of the essence, as that alone saves lives. We are passing through this stage today, with the entire nation coming together, as never before in decades. Non- government organizations, overseas Pakistanis and the international community have pitched in. Huge administrative and organizational failures occurred in the beginning, but slowly the operation is beginning to come together. The dead are being buried, medical aid is reaching the injured and survivors are starting to get food and shelter.

Next is the interim phase, which will cover the period till permanent resettlement. This phase can go on for months or years, depending upon national policy. The displaced will be housed in tent villages, where interim arrangements will be made for temporary civic and social services. Ample funds and supplies are pouring in to help with this phase.

The final phase is one of reconstruction. It will involve a very broad range of activities, from rebuilding the entire infrastructure of roads, bridges, water, power, drainage, sewage, etc., to reconstructing the civic and social services like schools, hospitals, government offices, police stations, courthouses, post offices, mosques, etc., to creating an enabling environment for building new homes, starting new businesses or resuming the ones destroyed and reconstructing their shattered lives. The international community is already appraising the costs involved, which will undoubtedly run into several billion dollars.

The grave misfortune is that Kashmiris have been totally excluded from the first and interim phases and seem destined to be sidelined in the major reconstruction phase as well. It does not have to be that way.

In the first phase thousands of well-wishers from outside Kashmir descended upon the hardest hit areas. Also came tens of thousands of troops from Gujranwala and Kharian. They quite naturally had no idea of the locality, the terrain, or the people. They could not begin to differentiate between the genuinely needy and the greedy, between the ones in despair and those exploiting. They did their best, without local support, but distribution of relief goods was haphazard. Tens of thousands of Kashmiri government officials have survived the earthquake.

With most schools destroyed, thousands of teachers are also available, ready and able, to support the operations. They know the children. They know the families. They are close to the ground. They are well respected in the community. Yet they continue to remain on the sidelines, their invaluable knowledge being put to no use. Unless the local community is involved, the needy will be ignored and lives will be lost. Similarly, in the interim period the local community can help enormously in guiding the administration in setting up and running tent villages effectively, according to local needs.

The final phase of reconstruction is where it can get murky. Reconstruction concerns Kashmir. It must be “of Kashmiris, by Kashmiris, for Kashmiris”. The army’s engineer-in-chief has been named to head the reconstruction effort. Fair enough, although it should have been a Kashmiri. He must now be based in Muzzafarabad. Everyone involved in reconstructing Kashmir should be in Kashmir, not Islamabad, not Rawalpindi. That alone will clearly show the intent. Billions of dollars will be spent in Kashmir every year for many years. Kashmiris must have a decisive say in how the money is spent, what is built and where.

Planning, execution and oversight bodies must all be under the effective control of Kashmiris. All contracts must go to Kashmiri companies and contractors, who can always hire Pakistani and foreign expertise. And the right signals must go out now, We do not want to flood Kashmir with the land mafia of Punjab and its Islamabad sponsors. And we can just as easily do without a new lot of local Haleiburtons emerging, which will surely happen if Islamabad, not Kashmir, calls the shots. The victims are Kashmiris. The beneficiaries must also be Kashmiris.

Once the first aid phase is over and the interim phase begins, Kashmiris should be hired to replace soldiers who can go back to their units, leaving only essential military supervision,engineering and medical teams behind. It will enable tens of thousands of Kashmiris who have lost their livelihoods, to earn a fair wage. This will help restore their dignity and is vital for the self-esteem of a proud but traumatized people. Job opportunities have to be created to replace aid dependence.

All of the above may well be obvious. What may not be obvious is that the term Kashmiris should not be limited to Azad Kashmiris.

The earthquake gives us an opportunity to pause and reflect. The Line of Control was irrelevant when terror struck. The past has been terrible for the people on both sides of the Line, with more deaths resulting from militant operations than from the earthquake. A lot of progress is now being made in the on-going India-Pakistan dialogue. Perhaps it is time to build dramatically upon it.

The massive reconstruction programme of Kashmir will shape the entire region for the 21st century, bringing newfound prosperity to an impoverished region. Peace is a prerequisite for reconstruction and prosperity. Its beneficiaries must be all Kashmiris. After all, it is everybody’s dream that Kashmir will be united one day.

Outlandish though it may seem, the Reconstruction Authority should be given some leeway to interact with the leadership of occupied Kashmir, and perhaps involve them in the reconstruction of Azad Kashmir. Indeed, the Kashmiri community overseas should also be involved, as they are important stakeholders. It will not compromise our security, nor alter our principled stand, but it could well be the most bold and dramatic confidence-building measure in the India-Pakistan dialogue. After all, the dream of changing geography alone is not enough; more important is to change mindsets. The first steps should be taken today.

Where reason and religion clash

AN American raised an interesting question in Dawn’s letters column (Oct 11). Hurt by remarks from “Muslims worldwide” who saw a relationship between the Katrina disaster and America’s war on Iraq, Steve Elisha, from Colorado Springs, Co., asked whether “the same reasoning is being applied to the devastating earthquake in Pakistan?”

One does not know who those Muslims were who saw Katrina as God’s punishment for America’s sins in Iraq and Afghanistan. The people of New Orleans hurt by Katrina were mostly blacks and the underprivileged. America might have committed sins in Iraq, Afghanistan, Palestine or elsewhere, but most certainly New Orleans’ blacks were no part of it.

Those who plotted the war against Iraq — the manipulation of intelligence, the hoax about the WMDs, the uranium trail to Niger and the 300 billion dollars earmarked for the Iraqi war — are as safe and rich today and enjoying life as they were before Katrina struck. If at all a relationship is to be established between the disaster wrought by Katrina and America’s sins abroad, then the victims should have been the energy tycoons in Bush’s cabinet, the Congressmen and Senators ever so eager to hurt Arabs for Israel’s sake because they have to re-win the election, and the media moguls in Washington and New York but most certainly not the black people of New Orleans.

If some Muslims did actually utter the kind of nonsense claimed by Mr Elisha then their understanding of the cosmic phenomenon is indeed very poor — poor in the sense that they try to see reason where reason does not exist, at least not in the sense we humans understand it.

What reason and logic can one find in the chaos of daily life, in births and deaths, in peace and war? Why is a soldier killed in the opening few minutes of a war that lasts six years, while the man next to him is maimed half way through the war and passes all his life in a wheelchair? Why was he not killed during the first few moments when the enemy artillery opened up? Lots of others returned home as victors and lived fuller lives. Why? What was so special about them? They believed no less in the “kill or get killed” principle, shot and wounded enemy civilians, burnt homes and hospitals, sowed their wild oats and did not take prisoners.

Remember, Paul Baumer, the hero through whose eyes the reader sees the horrors of trench warfare in Erich Maria Remarques’s masterpiece All Quiet on the Western Front? He was killed on the last day of the war when the headquarters issued the laconic communique, “All quiet on the western front”.

A Japanese chooses to come to Pakistan to keep away from his country’s frequent earthquakes but is killed by that very phenomenon in Pakistan. An Israeli woman leaves her country because she fears she would get killed in a suicide bombing but is injured in the London blasts on July 7. Is there a logic? Or perhaps there is.

Why was a tyrant and mass murderer like Saddam Hussein overthrown and now must wait for that noose which one day will inevitably be tightened round his neck, and the trap door will open, and why must a mass murderer like Ariel Sharon enjoy the goodies of life and in all probability die a natural death? What is the difference? Is there a relationship between Saddam’s deeds and fate and that between Sharon’s diabolical crimes and the “normal” end he is likely to have?

One English king had to abdicate because he wouldn’t like to give up the woman he loved, while a prince who lived in adultery with a married woman for 30 years now waits to be crowned king one day. What’s up?

If Katrina’s victims were mostly Christians, and October 8’s victims mostly Muslims and Pakistanis, the tsunami made no religious discrimination when it crashed on shores from Indonesia to Kenya. The 250,000 devoured by tsunami in December 2004 were Muslims, Christians, Hindus and Buddhists, and there must have been some Jewish tourists, too.

It is amazing how in times of mass misery and devastation, while the milk of human kindness oozes, sadism too seems to lurk just beneath the surface. Often people wish the death toll to go higher for no obvious reason other than that this creates an exciting drama to watch on TV and read about in newspapers.

If 80,000 Kashmiris have lost lives fighting for their freedom in occupied Kashmir, must Kashmiris too suffer 30,000 deaths at the hands of nature? This is mind boggling.

The Guardian’s Peter Preston (Dawn, Oct 11), whose country has fought “ritual wars” with Germany, dwells on Pakistan’s population figures — one wonders why — tries to construct a theory but does not fail to note that militants too must be among the thousands of Azad Kashmiri civilians, including school children, buried in the rubble. His idiom is Indian in Pakistan’s hour of grief.

The truth is that this is a law beyond human comprehension. If we consider the universe to be a mechanism run according to the laws of science, then we must have a new definition of science. The universe does not have a scientific basis, it did not originate scientifically and its end is not going to be scientific. Science may try to explain the universe in scientific terms, but science itself is unscientific.

Is there a thing called a straight line? You may draw a straight line on paper but can you draw a straight line on planet earth or in the universe, both of which are spherical? Parallel lines we are told never meet. But the longitudes drawn in the shape of parallel lines on maps in our school atlases meet at the two Poles. The nearest distance between two places, science tells us, is a straight line. But when a plane flies from Russia to Canada over the North Pole, it makes a curve and not a straight line, because a straight line does not exist in the universe.

The universe is not a mechanical contraption. The more science studies it the more it appears to be one big gel where its components behave irrationally. But irrationality here is subjective, because what appears irrational to us may not really be so.

Ultimately, one tends to fall back on religion. There must be the Biblical equivalent of Moses’ story contained in the Quran’s chapter Al-Kahf (The Cave). Moses is astonished by the behaviour of his pious companion who sinks a boat, kills a young man and repairs free of charge a dilapidated wall in a village whose people were unkind to them. The pious man later explains how he did all that on God’s commands and the good that was to come out of it all.

Mr Elisha’s comment is in sharp contrast to a letter by a lady from his own country. Wrote Patricia Fitzwater of Lafayette, In., to Dawn (Oct 12): “As an American watching the disaster in Pakistan, I send my prayer to the people of Pakistan. May God be with you!”

Pandemic preparedness

SCIENTISTS at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta announced last week that they had reconstructed the genetic code of the flu virus that killed at least 50 million people in 1918.

Meanwhile, administration officials are preparing a plan to bolster US preparedness for another pandemic. These two facts are related. The more that is understood about the 1918 flu virus, the more similar it appears to be the avian flu that has recently killed millions of birds, as well as some 60 people, in Asia.

So far, the avian flu virus has jumped from birds to humans, but not from person to person. If that changes, this flu could be as deadly as — or, given the speed of modern travel, more deadly than — its predecessor.

This is a potential disaster that, like the hurricane that devastated New Orleans and the Gulf Coast, has long been anticipated. Also as with Hurricane Katrina, it is one for which the US government is not prepared, as Mike Leavitt, the health and human services secretary, acknowledged last week.

It’s a good thing that Mr Leavitt recognizes the problem. Unfortunately, it isn’t clear that everyone in the administration understands it. It was disturbing to hear the president ruminate on the use of military troops for mass quarantines. That comment — conjuring images of soldiers shooting as sick people try to cross a cordon sanitaire — could have been a scare tactic. In fact, there is no legal, let alone ethical, means of enforcing mass quarantine in this country, and flu viruses, which don’t always produce symptoms in the early stages, wouldn’t obey them if there were.

So far the administration has concentrated on buying quantities of Tamiflu, an antiviral that looked as if it would be effective against avian flu but now, as the virus has mutated, might not be. There is also talk of U.S. help for surveillance teams in Asia, which is a good thing — Mr. Leavitt is off to Asia this week — but still insufficient, given the scant resources of the World Health Organization. Though many people assume otherwise, the WHO does not have thousands of employees who can be deployed to Asia on short notice, and it does not have vast stockpiles of Tamiflu or anything else.

—The Washington Post