Cost of flawed assumptions

IT IS becoming increasingly clear that the US-led war against Iraq is not going according to plan. Almost two weeks into the war, American and British troops find themselves bogged down, with very few spectacular gains to their credit. Wherever the troops have advanced, they have come up against stiff resistance — something they had not anticipated and were obviously ill-prepared for. Among the biggest shocks for the coalition was the resistance they encountered in the south of the country, where the Shia population was believed to be fiercely anti-Saddam. The recent suicide attack which killed five American soldiers near Najaf is another unnerving development and may well be the first in a series of such attacks. The Iraqis seem to have learnt some lessons from the debacle of the first Gulf war in 1991. This time round, they seem determined to fight the war on their own terms by drawing the enemy into cities where the vast air superiority of the Americans could be neutralized. The unexpected resistance and overstretched supply lines have now forced the US to call for reinforcements, entailing a pause in the fighting. Most US and British soldiers were expecting a short war in which the Iraqi forces would surrender en masse and the public would greet the troops as ‘liberators’. This scenario has clearly proved to be far too optimistic.

Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, widely considered one of the architects of the war, is now coming under fire for embarking on this high-risk adventure with not enough ground troops. A series of false assumptions seem to have gone into the American’s war strategy. The most fundamental point is that there was simply no need to rush into this adventure when the weapons inspectors were already doing their job of disarming Iraq peacefully. Despite strong opposition, not least from the UN Security Council, the US and Britain went ahead with their attack, boasting that their ‘shock and awe’ tactics would swiftly bring the Saddam regime down. The most misplaced assumption was that the people, specially in the south, had been so deeply alienated by Saddam Hussein’s tyranny that they would welcome US and British troops as liberators. It was also wrongly believed that Iraqi troops in their thousands would surrender or flee at the first sight of the allied forces. The Americans clearly underestimated the strength of Iraqi nationalism, and the deep public antipathy towards an alien invasion. These self-serving assumptions were obviously based on wishful thinking rather than on a correct reading of the situation on the ground. It is now clear that the war is going to be a long and painful affair. While there is little doubt that the US-led forces will eventually overpower the Iraqis, the political implications of a prolonged and bloody war could prove disastrous for President George Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair. The war against Iraq is a tragically unnecessary adventure that will entail the loss of countless lives. It will also further destabilize a region that is already extremely volatile. The UN could still play a key role in stopping this senseless war if it is allowed to do so. This seems highly unlikely at this point and the world must now brace itself for a prolonged and bloody conflict. President Bush seems to have gambled a huge lot on the war and is unlikely to consider stepping back until the body count rises high enough to produce a strong domestic backlash.

Protection of heritage

FEW countries in the world can match Pakistan’s impressive archaeological treasure of pre-historic sites and remains. On the other hand, fewer still have equalled this country in negligence of the preservation and upkeep of its historical relics. Moenjodaro, certain sites in Taxila and the remains of a Buddhist monastery at Takht-i-Bhai are among the pre-historic sites that have been on the Unesco’s World Heritage List since 1981. The decision by the world body this year to include three more pre-historic Pakistani sites in its Heritage List — Harappa, Mehrgarh and Rehman Dheri — is in recognition of these being part of the global human heritage. Hopefully, the measure will ensure international help in the form of expertise and funds being available for better care, protection and preservation of the neglected sites.

Harappa is located some 160km south of Lahore in district Sahiwal and boasts the second most extensive archaeological site in the country that is connected with the Indus Valley Civilization and is next only to Moenjodaro in its archaeological value and importance. The remains of a highly developed urban settlement in the form of buildings and granaries date back to the third millennium BC. The Mehrgarh remains, near Sibi in Balochistan, even predate the Indus Valley Civilization, going as far back in times as the seventh millennium BC, and are still under excavation by a team of French archaeologists. The Rehman Dheri remains near Dera Ismail Khan hark back to the fourth millennium BC, which makes these the northern-most site of the Indus Valley Civilization known so far. These sites virtually lay exposed to the elements and to depletion and vandalism by the ignorant people and smugglers of precious artifacts of cultural and historical value. Now with their inclusion on the Unesco’s Heritage List, one hopes the archaeology department will wake up to its responsibility of ensuring better protection and upkeep of these precious relics and sites.

Victory in hockey

PAKISTAN’s victory against World Champions Germany in the Azlan Shah hockey tournament in Malaysia, making up for the initial reverse, has come as a pleasant surprise. This is the country’s third success in the prestigious event in eight outings. Its overall performance in the event was consistent and impressive. By outclassing New Zealand in the opening game and subsequently Malaysia, Pakistan once again has asserted its potential and calibre. These victories, following the inglorious slump in 2001 when its team returned for the first time without a medal being relegated to the fourth position, can act as spur to bolster the team’s sagging morale. The forthcoming competitions will be more demanding and must be prepared for in right earnest. These challenges can only be faced by hard work and proper coaching.

A combination of talent and training in the light of modern requirements is essential to stay among the top contenders. A balanced blend of experienced talent and promising newcomers can sustain the improvement now in evidence. Unfortunately, the patronage necessary to groom fresh talent is lacking — which has restricted progress over the years. The reason for this drought is lack of resources and facilities. While in the initial years hockey was the centre of attention in sports circles cricket gradually assumed a dominant position to the exclusion of all other games. However, following our poor showing in the recent World Cup, popular interest in cricket has suddenly declined. In this context, the new hockey success offers another chance for the game to regain its lost glory. A lot depends on how successfully the central organization and zonal associations make use of the opportunity now at hand.