| April 30, 2008 | Wednesday | Rabi-us-Sani 23, 1429 |
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Tony Blair’s revenge
IF Hollywood’s Central Casting had been asked to come up with such opposite characters to play the contenders for the current London electoral battle, I doubt it would have found the ones actually slugging it out. In one corner in the red trunks is Ken Livingstone, while opposite him in the Conservative corner, wearing blue shorts, is Boris Johnson.
London’s popular left-wing mayor, ‘Red’ Ken, has been running the city since 2000, but his attempt for a third term has run into unexpected difficulties. A part of his problem has been of his own making. A recent spate of articles have highlighted his free and easy ways with public funds, with cronies and radicals being appointed to jobs with six-figure salaries. And instead of being forthcoming and open in replying to this criticism, he has been arrogant and aloof.
The Evening Standard has been in the vanguard of Livingstone’s critics. For years, this widely circulating paper has been hounding the mayor, who has lashed back from time, most famously when he accused a Standard reporter of being a ‘Nazi concentration camp guard’. When the journalist said he was a Jew and resented the jibe, the mayor refused to apologise.
He was accused of anti-Semitism before a tribunal that suspended him while it weighed the evidence. Finally, he was cleared and reinstated, but questions about his judgment have continued to dog him. When Livingstone invited a radical Muslim cleric to London, he was criticised heavily as his guest supported suicide bombings in Palestine as well as the death penalty for gays. And his pandering to Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez has not gone down well.
But his close rival Boris Johnson is not free from controversy either. A journalist who edited the small but influential Spectator weekly, he has been an MP for a number of years. But because of his cultivation of a buffoonish air, he has been regarded as a bit of a maverick by the Tory leadership. However, it is precisely because he is not the typical political hack that he is so popular. With his pale blond hair flying in every direction, he is a familiar figure as he arrives at Westminster on his bicycle. Prone to gaffes, he once referred to blacks as ‘piccaninnies’ with ‘watermelon smiles’. But he has shrugged off charges of racism, pointing to the fact that his great grandfather was a Turk, and his wife is half Indian. But he is widely perceived as a member of the elite, having been to Eton and Oxford. His widely reported affair with a well-known publisher is another reason why his party regards him as a loose canon with a predilection for indiscreet behaviour. Above all, his critics have attacked his lack of experience.
Livingstone is viewed as vastly more qualified, having successfully pushed through his ‘congestion charge’ scheme that has reduced the number of cars entering London by 70,000 while raising millions of pounds in revenues for the city. But more and more, he is seen as a tired, cynical politician. Although he, too, is not popular within Labour, the party leadership realises that a defeat for him translates into bad news for Labour at a time when it has slipped to its lowest ebb in opinion polls.
Thus, the race for London’s top job has become a trial of strength between the Tories and Labour. In order to strengthen the respective campaigns, both parties have committed prestige and resources. Boris Johnson is being advised by an Australian professional, while Tony Blair is supposed to he helping Livingstone.
To the disappointment of his fans, Johnson has been transformed into a bland political figure by his handlers, and has not dropped any bricks during his weeks of campaigning. His hair has been slicked back, and he is no longer the wild man of the Tory party. Livingstone is the same earnest figure he has always been, and the news that he has fathered five children with different women out of wedlock over the years has probably enhanced his reputation.
Until last week, the race was being reported as too close to call, but in the last few days, Johnson seems to have pulled ahead in the latest opinion poll, with 46 per cent against 35 per cent for Livingstone.
This big lead has been ascribed to the efforts being made by the Tory machine among white middle-class voters who have long distrusted Livingstone’s left-leaning brand of politics. In particular, many of them have been incensed by the mayor’s vow to raise the congestion charge for gas guzzling vehicles to 25 pounds a day from the present eight pounds. As it is, the extension of the congestion zone to include most of central London has made it very expensive to drive into the city for business, pleasure or ordinary chores. Crime is another big issue for most Londoners. Despite government claims that it has actually gone down over the last eight years, the perception is that there is a lot of violence and petty crime, and that large parts of the city are unsafe for ordinary people. This perception has been reinforced by the tabloid and right-wing press running banner headlines each time there is a shooting or knifing incident.
But above all, Livingstone’s chances have been badly hit by increasing dissatisfaction with Labour under Gordon Brown. With an economy that is visibly faltering, a credit crunch, and continuing bad news from Iraq and Afghanistan, Labour is suffering from the inevitable consequences of having been in power for over a decade. Overall projections for other local governments are just as dire for Labour that is on track to lose 200 council seats in England and Wales on 1 May.
For Brown, this will be a personal disaster as his leadership is coming under increasing scrutiny, especially after the disaster over the withdrawal of the 10 pence tax facility for the poor, and the government’s U-turn in the face of a threatened revolt within party ranks.
But it is London that is the focus of attention. Should a well-regarded politician like Ken Livingstone lose badly, the result will be seen as a referendum on Labour, and pressure will build up for early elections. Within Labour, there are already backbenchers and Blairites demanding that Brown step down. A defeat on May 1 will only add to doubts over Brown’s leadership.
The only Labour politician who will be chuckling quietly after the local elections will be Tony Blair who was forced by Brown to step down last year.
