THIS old French proverb says it all for Pakistan: “Plus ca change, plus c’est la meme chose.” (“The more things change, the more they stay the same”). On a recent visit to Lahore and Islamabad, I was regaled with stories of scams and scandals.

I could have been back in the Benazir Bhutto or Nawaz Sharif eras: only the names and the sums have changed. In the last seven years, there has obviously been a large increase in the level of bribes: crores (hundreds of millions) seem to have replaced lacs (hundreds of thousands) as the units of corruption.

Another difference is the fact that the press has maintained a discreet silence over most of these alleged stories. Earlier, when elected governments were in power, hardly a day passed without some fresh scam being exposed on the front pages of our daily newspapers. Now, these rumours are restricted largely to drawing rooms. Clearly, discretion is now the better part of editorial valour. But it is a fact that Transparency International has ‘improved’ our corruption rating from 73rd to 147th, out of 163 countries surveyed, over the last seven years. This would seem to speak volumes for the heroic efforts being made by the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) to eradicate corruption.

Yet another thing that has not changed is the incessant politicking going on. With an election likely this year, endless permutations and combinations are being hotly discussed. “Deal, or no deal?” is the refrain everywhere. Candidates are jockeying for tickets, and the voices clamouring for a boycott are being swiftly muted. And even in absentia, Benazir Bhutto has moved centre stage. Despite seven years of incessant prosecution, persecution and propaganda by this government, her People’s Party remains a force to reckon with in Pakistani politics. The fact that well-known turncoats are returning to the fold would seem to indicate that the PPP is suddenly imbued with an aura of power.

Although Musharraf has proclaimed from time to time that he will not change horses in mid-stream, there is no last word in politics. It is no secret that he has been largely unimpressed with the performance of the King’s Party he and his henchmen cobbled together five years ago. In particular, the Chaudhries of Gujrat have disappointed their uniformed benefactor by being lukewarm in their approach to his vision of “enlightened moderation”. Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain has been dragged screaming and kicking into endorsing the women’s protection bill, and his spiritual proximity to the holy fathers of the MMA has been displayed time after time.

Thus, from the perspective of a shared worldview, Musharraf is much closer to Benazir Bhutto than his public denunciations would indicate. Both are personally liberal, and both favour close relations with the West. The PML-Q, insofar as it has any vision larger than the bank balances of its handful of members, lies on the opposite end of the spectrum.

The one thing that currently prevents Musharraf from entering into an alliance with the PPP is a lack of trust: he is unsure of how pliable Ms Bhutto would be once her party is dominant in the National Assembly. After the 2002 elections, he was asked how much power the new prime minister would enjoy. He is reported to have replied that the incumbent would run the government while he, as president, would relax and ‘play golf’. It turned out that Shaukat Aziz is the one who has ended up on the golf course, while Musharraf has remained the hands-on chief executive. This has given the prime minister enough time to see the world and reportedly indulge his hobby of dabbling on the stock exchange.

The reality is that Musharraf, having convinced himself that he is indispensable to the security and prosperity of Pakistan, isn’t going anywhere. In his determination to stay in power, he will do any deal with any party. And while the list of contenders for this match is a long one, very few of them can deliver him the parliamentary support he seeks. If he is to remain godfather to the PML-Q, it is clear that the forthcoming polls will have to be heavily manipulated for the ruling coalition to maintain its jury-rigged majority. But if he decides to explore the uncharted waters of a partnership with the PPP, the upside is that he would not have to dirty his hands with some serious rigging. The party secured the largest number of votes in the last election, despite the many documented irregularities, and is expected to do much better in a relatively clean contest.

One big advantage this partnership would yield is that the religious parties would be marginalised in the resulting dispensation. Despite their earlier support for Musharraf, they are now an embarrassment to him as he talks to his American friends. Their hostility towards his efforts to clamp down on the extremists in the tribal areas makes his task that much more difficult. He would be much happier to see a coalition government in the NWFP that would include the ANP, the PPP and the PML-N. Of course this presupposes that such a coalition would get the seats necessary to form a government, but without official meddling, this is not a very far-fetched scenario.

In Punjab, too, a PPP plus PML-N coalition is entirely possible. In Sindh, the PPP might have the numbers to rule, but for the sake of urban harmony, a working partnership with the MQM might be the best way forward. In Balochistan, a more genuinely political dispensation might heal the wounds inflicted through harsh and insensitive military rule.

It goes without saying that such an arrangement will be resisted tooth and nail by the King’s Party and the clerics. The latter understand only too well that any partnership between the PPP and Musharraf will be a huge setback to their agenda of taking Pakistan back to the mediaeval ages. As far as the PML-Q is concerned, it can see its demise in any deal with the PPP.

These are early days yet. In politics, a year can be a lifetime. As Musharraf said, this year will witness ‘the mother of all elections’. No wonder, then, that the players are already jockeying for position.