It is a measure of how badly democratic institutions in Pakistan have been mauled that barely a fortnight before the general elections, many people are sceptical that they will be held at all. The rest of the electorate is convinced that the government will rig the elections to manufacture a result that suits the military rulers.

This kind of cynicism is grounded in recent history. Official interference in virtually every election conducted after 1970 has led many people to believe that their choice is not accurately reflected in the final results. Also, we have seen a series of elected governments toppled at the whim of the establishment which has shown its contempt for the popular mandate time and again. On top of this abysmal record has come a crop of constitutional amendments relating to the elections, apart from making the next assembly and government subservient to the president.

The presence of the Chief Election Commissioner, the man who supervised Gen Musharraf's farcical referendum, does not inspire much confidence in the fairness of the elections. And a final contribution to the general sense of disillusionment and despair is the ham-handed way in which this government has pressured many candidates into changing allegiance.

The unedifying spectacle of government officials from governors to chief secretaries twisting arms to secure a 'positive result' is a sign of things to come. For instance, according to impeccable sources, a popular PPP candidate in Khanewal was threatened with dire consequences by officials in and out of uniform to withdraw his nomination papers and re- submit them as an independent candidate. The poor man was finally forced to go along.

The game-plan that is emerging is to ensure that the PML (Q), also known as the King's Party, emerges in the National Assembly with the biggest number of seats, so a coalition can be formed with smaller parties and independents. It will be simple for President Musharraf to dictate to this bunch of political orphans. He will easily get them to accept the prime minister of his choice, apart from obtaining their endorsement for a five- year extension for himself as president and their acquiescence for his National Security Council as well as the scores of ordinances and constitutional amendments he has issued.

However, if our murky electoral history has showed ample evidence of official interference, it has also proved that more often than not, the establishment's attempts at fine-tuning the results do not always work out. Thus, in 1988 the PPP won a plurality despite the government's efforts. In the last elections held in 1997, Nawaz Sharif won a massive majority that allowed him to amend the Constitution to suit himself, much to the annoyance of the establishment.

This time, too, the people might surprise both the government and the pundits. Having visited several constituencies and talked to candidates and their political workers as well as other politicians and political observers, I am not wholly convinced that despite all the obstacles placed in the path of anti- government parties, things are going according to plan.

Multiply this picture across Punjab and Sindh, and you get the makings of a surprise result. In the past, the establishment cobbled together an electoral alliance of anti-PPP forces; thus, these groups, flying the flag of the PNA or the IJI, did well as they put up joint candidates to face the PPP in constituencies across the country. This time, they will be dividing the right- wing, pro-establishment vote. But just about everybody I spoke to in Lahore is convinced that an outright PPP victory would be beyond doubt if Benazir Bhutto were to return before the elections.

The pro-government parties are facing the problems of incumbency while enjoying official support. Firstly, any government in a problem-ridden country like Pakistan is bound to become unpopular over time. Prices and unemployment have both increased over the last three years, and the onus for this is being laid at Musharraf government's door.

The downsizing and privatization of public sector units are hugely unpopular with the masses, whatever the economic merits of these policies. For them, the dictates of the IMF and the World Bank are remote issues: all they know is that their sons are not getting jobs and they have to pay more for basic necessities. Then, the American bombing of Afghanistan has been very unpopular, and Gen Musharraf is being blamed for supporting the Americans; this too is rubbing off on the pro-government parties.

Nawaz Sharif's faction of the much-divided Muslim League, used to official patronage over the years, is not motivated enough to stand up to the establishment. Thus, its top candidates have deserted in droves and joined the pro-government group of the party. Nevertheless, the PML(N) will probably gain a respectable number of seats. The religious parties have managed to get together under the banner of the MMA, but historically, they have never gained over five per cent of the popular vote, so they will play a role only in the event of a very tight election.

The MQM is likely to do well in urban Sindh, although there are persistent rumours of a deal between it and the army in which it will not contest five or so seats in Karachi to let certain establishment favourites make it to the National Assembly. Given the peculiar relationship between the MQM and the army, this would not be a surprising development if it proves to be true.

Short of major irregularities on election day, it is entirely possible that the PPP will emerge as the biggest single party in the assembly and be in a position to form a coalition government with the PML (N). But while this would not be Gen Musharraf's preferred outcome, it would be one he could live with, given the wide-ranging powers he has given himself. For instance, his new- found ability to throw out the prime minister without dissolving parliament will give the future leader of the house something to think about before he tries to pull a Junejo on the president.