| 23 March 2002 | Saturday | 08 Muharram 1423 |
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Thinking outside the box
Recently, there was a seminar on the media in Karachi, and delegates were invited from Sri Lanka, Indonesia, India, Nepal and the UK.
Participants from Asian countries had to fly to Karachi via Dubai, doubling the flying time and the costs. The reason, of course, is the ban on over-flights imposed by both India and Pakistan that is forcing airlines to make long and costly detours. The Sri Lankan delegate told me he could have flown to Europe on what his Karachi ticket cost him.
In the aftermath of the attack on the Indian parliament last December, the Indians took a number of steps aimed at punishing Pakistan. These included recalling their high commissioner from Islamabad, stopping all over-flights and road and rail traffic between the two countries, moving major army formations to the border and placing their armed forces on high alert. In each case, Pakistan retaliated with identical measures. These actions are not dissimilar to what little boys do when they throw a tantrum.
Apart from what airline passengers are being forced to pay as a kind of "sulk surcharge", traders on both sides are losing millions every day, and ordinary citizens are unable to cross the border to meet their relatives. But far more important is the extremely high cost of maintaining a forward military posture. Both governments are wasting billions in maintaining a ridiculous and wasteful stance that is draining both treasuries and further impoverishing two of the poorest countries in the world. Neither has the good sense to say "enough!" and return to normality. But then good sense has generally been a commodity in short supply in the subcontinent.
At a time when the world is an increasingly turbulent place, thanks to the insanely widening scope of the 'war against terrorism', India and Pakistan are adding to the general hysteria that seems to be gripping so many countries. Instead of trying to mend fences and putting ancient animosities behind them, both countries are busy scoring childish points against each other.
Unfortunately, relations between New Delhi and Islamabad have been reduced to a zero-sum game in which the gain for one side translates into a loss for the other. In this poisonous atmosphere, any sane or rational suggestion is greeted with suspicion and derision. But if gestures of friendship and goodwill are doomed to failure, perhaps the cold calculus of respective strengths and weaknesses is inescapable.
For Pakistan, it does not take a Napoleon to come to the conclusion that its forces cannot take Indian Kashmir while simultaneously defending its own borders. India, with a far bigger military machine, has many more options, but at the end of the day, any armed conflict will be very costly, specially as the endgame will probably entail a nuclear exchange.
Had the prize over which so much blood has been shed and so many resources wasted been of greater value, the present confrontation could perhaps have been justified. Both countries talk endlessly about the 'principles' involved in the Kashmir conflict. If I could get a dollar for every e-mail I have received from Indian and Pakistani readers lecturing me on the respective points of view of both sides, I would be a rich man today. But the unfortunate fact remains that the quarrel is over territory, not principles. And the welfare of the poor, suffering Kashmiris comes a very distant third.
So if there can be no military solution, how about a negotiated settlement? So far, semantics and so-called 'principles' have thwarted every attempt to put an end to this endless conflict. General Musharraf's turnaround on the policy of supporting cross-border militancy and terrorism through Pakistan-based jihadi outfits would, under normal circumstances, have injected an element of flexibility into the equation. But the BJP's determination to cash in on the attack on the Indian parliament, as well as seeing this tragedy as an opportunity to tilt the recent UP elections its way, thwarted any possibility of reviving the stalled peace talks.
However, as the election results in UP showed us, ordinary people are not interested in the posturing their leaders engage in. They want their immediate problems to be addressed, and resources employed in building schools, roads and hospitals. They want jobs and good governance. No doubt the people of Pakistan would send their rulers the same message if they got an opportunity.
For over half a century, Kashmir has blighted lives and hopes far beyond its borders. It is high time we broke free of the shackles of old grudges and disputes.
Indeed, having explored various formulas and approaches without any success, we should now think outside the confines of traditional ideas and concepts. Being the stronger and larger party, India is in a position to act unilaterally; unfortunately, New Delhi has so far shown even less flexibility and imagination than Islamabad, and given the sterility of the exchange, this is saying a lot. However, as India can better afford the present level of confrontation than Pakistan, it is in the latter's interest to think outside the box.
For instance, what would happen if Pakistan were to announce that by a certain date, it was withdrawing its army and its administrative staff from Azad Kashmir while simultaneously declaring that the Northern Areas were henceforth part of the NWFP? There would be a small transfer of population of Kashmiris, and howls of betrayal from a few extremists, but what would be the result of such a move? It is highly unlikely that India would want a few more million potential Muslim militants within its borders, quite apart from having to give the area the subsidy of four billion rupees Pakistan has been paying annually.
There are very good chances that such a declaration might precipitate a movement towards a solution. If good sense (finally) prevails in New Delhi, even right-wing hawks like Advani might see that with a pull-back of Pakistani forces from the Kashmiri border, there is nothing to prevent a united Kashmir from emerging. However, with a bigger population, keeping down the people through armed occupation would be an even costlier military problem than it is currently. Thus, an autonomous Kashmir could emerge that would be independent in all but name. Face would be saved on both sides, and both India and Pakistan could declare victory and get on with life.
