IT seems that we are once again in the midst of the silly season - a season, incidentally, that is longer than Pakistan's interminable summer.

As various committees, think tanks and task forces submit their reports, the air is full of optimistic slogans and brave words. It is also full of hype and hot air. We are told that by 2005, textile exports will shoot up to $15 billion from the current $6 billion or so. Tourism will miraculously boom. Local body elections will usher in a period of "genuine democracy" that has eluded us thus far. The problem is that nobody is able or willing to explain satisfactorily how these castles in the air are to acquire a solid foundation.

The textile industry is perpetually in a boom-or-bust mode where the size of the cotton crop determines whether mills will mint money or shut down. When the crop is large, prices fall and the industry thrives; when cotton prices shoot up as a result of a poor crop, our mills cannot compete internationally because of their inefficiency and the higher prices of raw material. How this cycle is to be broken remains unclear. For the last fifty years, the tussle between growers and textile magnates has continued with each side assuming they are in a zero-sum game where one side's gain is equal to the other's loss.

As for tourism, fugedaboutit, as many Americans would put it. As fundamentalism and violence grow in our streets, it would be a brave foreigner who ventures the risk of enjoying Pakistan's scenic beauty and rich historical architecture. According to a foreign expert, out of the 400,000 tourist visas issued by our missions abroad last year, only 44,000 were to genuine tourists; the rest were given to relatives of Pakistanis who are now foreign citizens, and to businessmen. This means that on average, less than 4,000 genuine tourists visited Pakistan every month. Our neighbors, by contrast, earn billions of dollars through tourism.

This summer, I spent three weeks in Spain and France, and traveled extensively by road. I was struck by the enormous volume of goods being transported across Europe in trucks from virtually every EU country. Huge lorries from Holland to Greece lumbered along the wide motorways to destinations ranging from Britain to Spain. Similarly, tourists in cars bearing a wide range of registration plates crisscrossed Europe. Borders seem to exist only in name: we were waved through without any official bothering to examine our passports and visas.

It is clear that European integration is very much a reality, and millions of Europeans are benefiting. Currently, tens of thousands of young French men and women are working in Britain, and five million Britons have bought holiday homes in France. These are only two examples of how vision, cooperation and political will have transformed the face of Europe. Ancient animosities and rivalries have moved from the battlefields to sports stadia. The free movement of goods and people across frontiers has erased bitter memories of past wars.

On our subcontinent, we have been unable to make much headway despite the creation of the South Asian club, SAARC. Despite professions to the contrary, travel between neighbors is an arduous affair with visas difficult to come by. Regional tourism is virtually non-existent, and trade even more so. Most of the goods crossing the Indo-Pak border do so illegally. While this smuggling deprives both exchequers of revenue, it does establish the fact that there is a demand in each country for the other's goods.

The poisonous legacy of hate and suspicion that separates the two subcontinental rivals translates into huge defence and intelligence establishments that have a vested interest in fanning the flames of mutual animosity. The Kashmir issue has cast its baneful shadow over all of South Asia, not allowing the potential gains from regional trade and tourism to transform the area. We remain locked in a time warp impervious to new realities and ideas. Indeed, if anything, attitudes are growing progressively more rigid on both sides.

While India, being a bigger and richer power, may be able to afford this madness, Pakistan is bankrupt through trying to maintain some kind of arms equilibrium with its large neighbor. We should not forget that the Soviet Union finally imploded because of its efforts to achieve military parity with the United States. In this day and age, the strength of an economy is the true indicator of a nation's power, and not the size of its army. A poor nation with pathetically low literacy rates simply cannot acquire and maintain the modern weapons systems that are needed to mount a credible deterrent. For this reason, both India and Pakistan have invested heavily in their respective nuclear programs.

Against this backdrop of rising tension and growing militarization, it is difficult to see how South Asia will reap the benefits of economic cooperation. ASEAN in South-East Asia, NAFTA in North America, and the European Union all provide models of successful regional collaboration. In all these trading blocs, rivalries and enmities have been set aside in the interest of mutual benefit through ever-expanding commercial ties. To our misfortune, the gulf between India and Pakistan has not yet been bridged by the clear advantage accruing to both through a peaceful settlement of their differences.

But economic realities may concentrate minds in a way logic and common sense have been unable to. The recent cease-fire offered by Hizbul Mujahideen in Kashmir was a clear signal sent by Pakistan's military rulers. Although this initiative fizzled out, it does hold out a ray of hope that the thinking in GHQ may be changing. One proposal that has been on the table for a long time needs to be dusted off and re-examined: Kashmir can be put on the back-burner while trade and travel opened up to improve the political environment. After a period of, say, five years, the thorny Kashmir dispute can be tackled; during this interim period, relations between the two countries will hopefully improve, and some amicable solution found.

It is a fact that while governments come and go, personalities change and economies rise and fall, geography is one constant nobody can alter. Like it or not, Pakistan and India are neighbors, and it is high time they realized it.