NAWAZ SHARIF is not the victim of evil circumstances. To think so would be to flatter him. He is the author of his own misfortunes, the dangers threatening to overwhelm his government being the direct outcome of his personal failings.

Which other prime minister would have handled Kargil the way he did? Which other prime minister would have first given the okay to this expedition, without of course realizing what he was getting into, and then made such a hash of the follow-up retreat? Which other prime minister would have brought so much gratuitous humiliation to the nation? Which other prime minister would have sent Ghous Ali Shah and, of all policemen, Rana Maqbool to Sindh?

The storm-clouds of agitation gathering on the horizon are merely catalysts which are stripping the veil from a larger truth: that the heavy mandate was an aberration and that in trying to tackle the country's problems this government simply has been out of its depth. True, if circumstances had been kinder, this process of exposure might have taken longer. But then the prime minister and his team should not have tempted fate the way they have done, thus bringing their hour of reckoning that much closer.

History may have no design or purpose but one factor runs constantly through it: hubris and arrogance exact their own retribution and bring about their own fall. Pakistan has known plenty of arrogant and less than able rulers. But such a marriage of audacity and incompetence as is now to be seen is virtually unparalleled. At the same time, for a seemingly strong government to have its balloon pricked so quickly is also unparalleled.

This has come about even if, and this is a point worth noting, no full-fledged agitation against the government has yet started. Whether the people are tired or are not fully fired up is beside the point. What we are seeing are just the first mutterings of discontent with the crowds still not pouring into the streets in any great demonstration of anti-government anger. Even so, the government is shaken. It has faced just the first fewblasts from an autumn wind and it already looks stricken.

The agitations against Ayub Khan and Bhutto were serious affairs. The first of these lasted four months, that against Bhutto six months. But even though both were frenzied affairs, those oligarchs did not look half as shaken when their end came as the keepers of the heavy mandate are doing in this relatively early season. What if the going gets tougher? It is going to put a strain on the equanimity of the prime minister and his team. Already they are saying things they should not. Shahbaz Sharif's description of the combined opposition as a grouping of "thieves and dacoits" is a case in point. Was this a considered statement or the tell-tale sign of a premature panic?

In his first term as prime minister, Nawaz Sharif once said he was not afraid of confrontation because he was a product of confrontation - fateful words which might yet come to haunt him just as Zulfikar Ali Bhutto's great boast that he was a man of crisis came to haunt the latter in 1977.

Which are the confrontations Nawaz Sharif has to his credit? Three of them: against Benazir Bhutto, against Ghulam Ishaq Khan and with India overKargil. In the first of these showdowns Nawaz Sharif had the full backing of the army, the intelligence agencies, the then president (Ghulam Ishaq Khan) and the Punjabi establishment. If he came out on top, the honours were widely shared.

In his confrontation against Ghulam Ishaq Khan he had the backing of the Punjabi establishment, including the Supreme Court under Nasim Hasan Shah. The first round in that confrontation, which was confined to the Supreme Court, Nawaz Sharif handily won. But when the issue was joined by the then army chief, General Waheed, some of Nawaz Sharif's iron resolve crumbledand he agreed to step down as prime minister. His only consolation was that in going down he also took Ishaq with him.

As for Kargil, light lie the ashes of Pakistani pride. To havecreated such a mess in the first place. That required genius. Then to have beaten such a headlong retreat. That too required genius.

How is Nawaz Sharif likely to fare in this the fourth confrontation which is staring him in the face? The signs are not auspicious. He is all on his own, the army and its spymasters, their support and largesse so crucial to him in the past, are in a sullen mood, certainly in no mood to bail him out. Not this time. Kargil and its aftermath have seen to that.

Moreover, the opposition parties have got together sooner than many pundits would have expected. The PPP, ANP and MQM on one platform, even if for the moment the platform is creaky and ill-defined. It is an alarming development nonetheless. And what of Qazi Hussain Ahmed? In what threatening tones is he speaking?

If Nawaz Sharif is genuinely bamboozled he is not to blame. Here he had seemingly taken care of all threats and insured his stay in power for the foreseeable future: got rid of Leghari and installed his own man in his place; got rid of a troublesome chief justice (Becket to his Henry the Second); and had even replaced one army chief with another. As for Benazir Bhutto and her husband, theyhad been virtually drummed out of the political arena. The rest of the political parties were like chaff before the wind. The empire of the heavy mandate was thus secured. And to think that just when the prospect seemed so rosy and promising, the fates should have caught up and made an omelette of the heavy mandate.

Pakistani rulers may not be able to look beyond their noses but even the most inconsequential of them plan their innings on an eternal scale, thinking they are going to be around forever. They are lucky if they are in health for two or three years. After that their energy begins to drain and they become a prey to the elements, martial law regimes alone proving impervious to this iron law.

Nawaz Sharif no doubt thought he too was another exception. Nor could he be blamed for thinking so. Did he not bestride the world of Pakistani politics like a colossus? Had not rival centres of authority been either rubbished or cut down to size? All that remained was just him and his lengthening shadow. He could do as he pleased. There was no one to question him. He could order whatever gimmicks caught his fancy and make as many foreign trips as he wished.

A pity that this gathering crisis has revealed that although to all outward form he may still look a giant, his feet are of clay. This then is one confrontation for which the self-proclaimed man of confrontation seems wholly unprepared. It is shaping up badly for him which is probably the reason why everyone in his camp seems to be out of breath already.