Nothing could be clearer than the one holy assumption on which all the current war planning and military operations are based: that the Taliban, unable to bear the brunt of American military action, will disintegrate from within and soon be part of history.

The feverish talk of a post-war dispensation in Afghanistan flows from much the same iron-clad belief that the Taliban, hoisted on their own foolishness, are on the verge of disappearing from the Afghan scene.

If this thinking proves correct the cries of vindication from the American-led coalition will resound across the heavens. President Bush will have won his fight against evil. The anger of the American people will be assuaged, their self-righteousness immeasurably strengthened. And President Musharraf, riding the most dangerous horse of all, will be hailed at home as a far-sighted statesman.

The play, in other words, will have run according to script: Taliban morale collapsing, Taliban ranks weakened by defections, the Northern Alliance on the march, and the coup de grace delivered by American and British 'special forces' operating out of captured Kabul and Kandahar.

This is a beguiling scenario which could well turn out to be true. After all, the Taliban have their backs to the wall while the Americans have everything going for them.

But what if the Taliban hold on? What if, unlike Pakistan, they do not lose their nerve? Or their will to resist? What if by the time the snows start to fall they are still in place, defiant in the face of the death and destruction raining down on their country? It's a safe bet that in that case everything will be in a mess with anti-war demonstrations on the rise across Europe and the mood getting uglier in Pakistan.

Not for nothing has General Musharraf been stressing the need for a swift conclusion to the war effort. Speed is of the essence, for anything less will land both America and Pakistan in a quagmire. The trouble is that a speedy conclusion is possible only if the Taliban collapse from within. Or they are defeated on the ground. If the Taliban are not so obliging, or American special forces not so enterprising, we have a problem on our hands.

This is the nightmare haunting Pakistan: the fear of being caught in a bind in which backing off - that is, getting out of America's loveless and overbearing embrace - will be as dangerous as staying the course. By now most Pakistanis know where their country stands. For a pittance it has been made hostage to American wishes. This is not a feeling which most Pakistanis appreciate or find flattering, whatever General Musharraf may say about the support he enjoys.

As the bombing runs over Afghanistan continue the anger in Pakistan is getting stronger. Anyone thinking otherwise has no clue to the mood across the country. The opposition to the air strikes is almost total. This is not for any ingrained support for the Taliban. But because of emotional sympathy for the plight of fellow Muslims. Innocent people died in New York and Washington. But aren't innocent people - men, women and children - dying in Afghanistan? Where then is the morality of what America is doing?

True, the anti-American protests held so far have not rocked the government. But it is hard to say what the public mood will be if the bombings continue into the winter which, let us not forget, is only a few weeks away.

Coupled with sympathy for the sufferings of ordinary Afghans is anger at the role Pakistan is playing: providing military facilities for use against Afghanistan. No one likes being cast in the role of a stooge. We have been here before (for much of our history) and are at it again. As a consequence, the premium on Pakistani self-respect is not riding very high these days.

Worried by our debt problems, assailed by the fear of what the Americans could have done to us had we not complied with their wishes, burdened by the thought of being pressed into service in a war in which we are not emotionally involved but momentarily lifted up by the prospect of suitable financial rewards for our services, we are being hit by winds from different directions.

This situation is made worse by American rhetoric. President Bush's words would be embarrassing on the lips of a Sunday-school preacher: them and us, good and evil, " we are so good". It is also made worse by American arrogance. Each time an American official talks of the prospect of the on-going war being extended to other (Muslim) countries, Pakistanis get another reason to feel a twinge of shame because they are fellow-travellers in this dubious adventure.

That this is a global coalition against terrorism is a bit of a misnomer because on the frontline are only three states: the US, its poodle Britain and a Pakistan which is alternately delighted and horrified at the client role it is playing. Other countries are sympathetic but between sympathy and active cooperation the distance is considerable.

Certainly no other country is taking the risks Pakistan is taking. Its government is tempting public anger by being hand in glove with the Americans. If there is no quick end to the war it takes no visionary to see that public anger will mount. A sullen mood will grip the military itself for it bears repeating that being with the Americans against what they are doing to Afghanistan is not a popular cause in this country.

And what is Pakistan getting for its pains? Small, calibrated doses of comfort which without satisfying its hunger or its real wants merely whet its appetite for more. A sanction or two lifted here, a sliver of the country's huge debt rescheduled there and the promise of more relief in the future: that is all. During Secretary Powell's visit the one word he conspicuously avoided mentioning was debt 'write-off'. A lot of verbal sympathy but few hard concessions. In a telephonic talk with Japan's prime minister, General Musharraf made a strong bid for writing off Japanese debt. All he got was more verbal sympathy.

This war is of far graver importance to the Americans than their last involvement in Afghanistan during the 1980s. At that time the supreme war aim was bleeding the Soviets. Nothing of America's own was at stake. It's different this time. The US has never felt threatened like this before. That is why an entire range of mythological concepts has been put on the line: the American way of life, freedom itself, goodness in its most purified form.

And in this great battle between good and evil the one crucial country without whose ready support the warlords of the Pentagon would have had a hard time arranging their maps was Pakistan. Yet instead of putting a proper value on Pakistan's cooperation and assistance, the Americans are almost suggesting that they have done Pakistan favour enough by taking it on board instead of bombing it back to the Stone Age. It is hard to figure out which is the more egregious, American arrogance or Pakistani folly.

Proponents of the government's line say this is a great opportunity for Pakistan which will enable it to embark on the path of development and get in step with the outside world. If only this were true. For achievement of any kind, qualities such as resolve, national dignity and the readiness to take on huge odds are infinitely more important than material resources. We have had opportunities before but blew them because of the governments we had: self-serving and short-sighted. Other countries far richer than ours have squandered national wealth for much the same reasons.

During the present crisis we have shown a disregard for national dignity that would be condemnable in a banana republic. Can weakness such as this be turned into future strength? We are hoping it will be although the evidence of our own history suggests a different conclusion.