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WHOEVER coined the phrase ‘China-Pakistan Economic Corridor’, or CPEC, may not have imagined the opportunities versus challenges that the largest planned foreign investment will throw up for Pakistan.
As Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s government seeks to prove its increasingly strong commitment to the project with recent high- profile events such as the launching of a free-trade zone in Gwadar, once a dusty fishing village turned into the entry point for a long road to western China, the gap between official promises versus a much-needed reality check is waiting to be filled.
On the one hand lies an unprecedented plan by China to invest up to $46 billion, never undertaken on a similar scale by another foreign country. This includes more than $34bn for power-related projects while the remaining $11bn is planned to go towards infrastructure initiatives such as highways, train lines, gas and oil pipelines.
Three powerful realities regarding CPEC should be noted.
But as Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s government builds hype in favour of history in the making under the present regime, there are equally daunting challenges. The internal political debate within Pakistan over the route to be or not to be taken for the infrastructure projects has undoubtedly raised troubling questions over prospects for building a clear national consensus to back this project.
The political squabbling over the so-called western route as opposed to the eastern route has badly exposed the failure of the political elite in assembling on a common platform, even when primary national interests are clearly at stake.
And then there are baffling questions over future economic liabilities in case the costs incurred for CPEC partially or fully add phenomenally to the national debt, stepping up pressure on Pakistan’s already challenged finances. Though the government has made a distinction between ‘early harvest’ projects which are likely to be completed in the next few years as opposed to longer-term ones, the challenging questions remain pressing.
In contrast to the clear dividends surrounding the build-up will also come liabilities, notably economic and political ones. Will the long road ahead add to Pakistan’s political divisions and economic costs, is a troubling question that is at risk of being drowned out by the mantra of a coming game-changer for the better.
The debate surrounding CPEC is clearly wrapped up in three powerful realities which stand out at the centre of Pakistan’s present and future outlook.
First, the scale of this investment is such that Pakistan needs to demonstrate a keen focus which goes beyond the tenure of any one regime and becomes a long-term continuing commitment. Towards this end, a political and parliamentary consensus at the national level must be the starting point followed by bringing key stakeholders from the mainstream public on board. And rather than becoming wrapped up in Pakistan’s already unhelpful political divide, the overall responsibility of CPEC’s management ought to be made independent with the creation of a powerful agency with an independent secretariat of its own. Pakistan’s interests will best be served if such a body is overseen by an independent board brought together with the parliament’s bipartisan approval.
Second, as Pakistan embarks on the most expensive financial undertaking in its history, it is important to present a publicly verifiable system of cost-benefit analysis. Rather than vague official statements repeatedly citing the ‘all is well’ phrase to compelling questions over the future of Pakistan’s debt and its servicing, it is important to bring together independent financial and technical experts to review this matter. A tough reality check is needed in Pakistan’s present-day fragile economy, notwithstanding claims of success by the finance minister.
Many Pakistanis remember the billions of dollars in promised investments which were due to come in the power sector during late Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto’s government. Today, residents of the country’s often electricity-starved and poverty-stricken neighbourhoods have a right to know if history might be repeated in the shape of the CPEC promises of today being exaggerated.
Finally, Pakistan’s relationship with China is much too precious to be taken lightly. At a time when China faces an increasing challenge from the US-led alliance in the Pacific and with India increasingly set to join the fray, Pakistan’s internal and foreign policy deserves far more than the usual deft handling. A centre piece of this relationship must be to ensure the success of CPEC. But other key matters include maintaining a peaceful coexistence with key neighbours, notably India and Afghanistan, in spite of periodic provocations.
For Prime Minister Sharif, tackling Pakistan’s internal challenges has become as paramount as dealing with the country’s foreign policy issues. He could serve Pakistan well with finally appointing a foreign minister in response to an oft-repeated criticism of his three-year rule.
The writer is an Islamabad-based journalist.
Published in Dawn September 7th, 2016
