ISLAMABAD: As planting of Rabi wheat crop is currently under way, official surveys point to a two per cent year-on-year contraction in plantation to 8.98 million hectares.

The reduction reflects high production costs, ample stocks and government’s decision to keep wheat support prices unchanged this year, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said in a report on Pakistan on Monday.

However, despite this, the early official forecast of production in 2016 points to a record output of 26m tonnes, 3pc up from the 2015 bumper level, under expectations that good water availability in the main reservoirs and adequate supply of quality seeds, fertilisers and herbicides will increase average yields.

Final official estimates of the 2015 wheat crop, harvested by mid-June, put output at 25.5m tonnes, 2pc below last year’s record and 4pc above the five-year average.

The year-on-year decrease is attributed to slightly lower yields, following heavy rains in March, which affected standing crops in the final stages of development, FAO says. Meanwhile, harvesting of the 2015 Kharif season crops, mostly rice and maize, is currently under way and is expected to be concluded in early December. Latest official estimates put the 2015 rice production at 9.9m tonnes, 6pc below the 2014 record level.

The forecast decrease is largely due to a 5pc contraction in area planted in response to large stocks and high production costs. Localised floods across northern and eastern parts of the country, following heavy rains in July and August, caused only minor damage to crops, report says.

The report says that wheat imports for the 2015-16 marketing year are forecast to decline to 250,000 tonnes from 741,000 tonnes in the previous year, in line with the 2015 good output and large carryover stocks.

Rice exports for the 2015-16 marketing year are forecast at 3.9m tonnes, close to last year’s high level.

About the situation in Thar, the report says in Tharparkar and the surrounding areas of Sindh, cereal production shortfalls due to drought-like situation for the third consecutive year, coupled with losses of small animals, especially sheep and goats, have aggravated food insecurity and caused acute malnutrition. Recurrent insecurity has negatively impacted on food security in Fata.

Published in Dawn, November 24th, 2015