THE State Bank of Pakistan has painted a dismal picture of the performance of the crop sector during the just-ended fiscal year, saying farmers must be made aware of best agriculture practices to improve crop yields.

According to the SBP’s third quarterly report, it was a better performance by the livestock subsector that helped agriculture surpass the previous year’s growth level, but still the overall growth fell short of the target for the third consecutive year. One of the key concerns remained the further decline in yield of all major crops, except cotton.

This is disappointing because the yields are already low in Pakistan. While wheat, sugarcane and maize, having a combined share of over 60pc in value addition by major crops, could not achieve last year’s production levels and cotton remained short of the target set for the year, it was rice alone which surpassed both last year’s level, as well as the target. The crop sector, however, suffered from heavy rains during kharif and prolonged low temperature in rabi season.

Minor crops showed a growth of only 1pc, defying the expectation of a strong recovery from losses suffered in 2013-14. Within minor crops, pulses (gram, mash and moong), vegetables (especially potatoes and onion), and fruits performed better, while oilseeds registered a decline.

The crop sector’s poor performance, the SBP’s quarterly report released mid-July said, was mainly due to low prices received by growers in the last season, in addition to adverse weather, use of poor quality seeds and inefficient application of fertiliser

Crop sector’s poor performance, the report released mid-July says, was mainly due to low prices received by growers in the last season, in addition to adverse weather, use of poor quality seeds and inefficient application of fertiliser. In case of sugarcane, stagnant prices in 2013-14 discouraged farmers from growing the commodity during FY15. Similarly, in the case of cotton, growers did not wait for third or fourth picking due to unattractive market prices. The farmers’ income also came under pressure because of decline in domestic prices of the agriculture produce in line with the international trends.

The input prices in the country, interestingly, increased despite their falling trends in the global market. It is evident from the fact that the domestic price of urea increased from Rs1,844 per 50 kg in March 2014 to Rs1,929 in March 2015. Although it would be early to quantify the impact of falling international commodity prices on the country’s crop sector, the SBP believes the crop production has remained largely unaffected, as most of the kharif crops were already near their harvesting stage when the global prices plummeted in September 2014. Even the area under wheat cultivation — the major rabi crop which is sown in December — did not change much from the last year’s level.

The growth in the gross output of livestock remained unchanged from last year. This was expected as the output is computed by extrapolating results from past surveys. The swing factor in FY15 was the intermediate consumption (mainly fodder), which grew by only 0.8pc compared with 6.0pc in FY14. Interestingly, the growth in fodder varies directly with the crop sector which means a low crop production results in weak output of fodder.

Meanwhile, important crops which contribute 25.6pc in agricultural value, registered a disappointing growth of 0.3pc in fiscal year 2014-15 against an impressive 8.0pc during the previous year on account of revised production estimates of wheat crop. Only cotton and rice had positive growth of 9.5pc and 3.0pc respectively while sugarcane, maize and wheat production suffered a negative growth of 7.1pc, 5.0pc and 1.9pc respectively, with respect to last year’s estimates.

While there are no two opinions about the fact that climate change is now a major threat to agriculture, any failure to adapt to the changes will worsen the situation. It is in this context that a meeting between the federal minister for climate change Senator Mushahidullah Khan and country representative of the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) Patrick T. Evans held early this month is of great significance. They agreed to work together to address the climatic risks to the agriculture sector.

Evans pointed out that protecting agriculture and water from deleterious impacts of climate change is indispensable for boosting agriculture productivity in the country to meet the rising food and water needs of the galloping population.

He warned, however, that food and water security, which are at the heart of sustainable socio-economic development in Pakistan, cannot be achieved as long as the sectors remain vulnerable to climate risks and are unable to sustain climate-induced disasters, such as floods, heavy rains, hailstorms and shifting weather patterns, because agriculture accounts for 22pc share in country’s GDP and around 45pc of the employments.

The FAO country representative said, “We are ready to support Pakistan in dealing with the negative impacts of climate change on the very sectors which are vital to country’s sustained economic growth. We would like to bring in proven experiences of improved agriculture and irrigation practices and introduce climate-resilient crop varieties, which can sustain heat waves, floods, salinity and drought conditions, which are becoming frequent in Pakistan.”

Published in Dawn, Economic & Business July 27th, 2015

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