Pool B scenarios: Upsets could shake up race to the quarters

Published March 10, 2015
Pakistan’s win over South Africa has made its path to the finals a much steadier one. — AFP
Pakistan’s win over South Africa has made its path to the finals a much steadier one. — AFP

Bangladesh's upset win over England on Monday completed the quarter-finals lineup in Pool A with Australia, New Zealand, Sri Lanka and Mashrafe Mortaza's side making it to the knockout stage.

In Pool B, Pakistan’s stunning win over South Africa ensured the battle for the top four remained wide open.

Currently, only India has qualified for the knock-out stages from Pool B, while South Africa is also in the box seat to advance. Ireland, Pakistan and West Indies are looking set to battle for the final two spots.

Pool B

Remaining matches:

South Africa v United Arab Emirates, Wellington, March 12

India v Zimbabwe, Auckland, March 14

West Indies v United Arab Emirates, Napier, March 15

Pakistan v Ireland, Adelaide, March 15

India

(Played 5, won 5, lost 0, points: 10)

India is undefeated after five matches and have already qualified for the quarterfinals. They will take their last pool match against Zimbabwe as an opportunity to try out a few things. It is also unlikely to be removed from the top of Pool B.

Finishing first means India will play the fourth-ranked team in Pool B in a quarter final, most likely to be either Sri Lanka or Bangladesh with the game in Melbourne on Thursday March 19th.

South Africa

(Played 5, won 3, lost 2, points: 6)

South Africa’s rollercoaster World Cup continued against Pakistan on Saturday when it tumbled to a 29-run loss. Twice, the Proteas have scored more than 400 runs this tournament, but they have also been skittled for 177 and 202. That said, South Africa’s only remaining match is against the winless United Arab Emirates.

With a comfortable NRR of +1.462, a win against UAE will see the Proteas finish in second spot. But an upset loss could see them finish third if Pakistan defeat Ireland, or, in a less likely scenario, if West Indies has an enormous win over UAE and manages to lift itself above the Proteas on NRR.

In all likelihood South Africa will finish second and play the third-ranked team from Pool A; likely to be Sri Lanka in Sydney.

Pakistan

(Played 5, won 3, lost 2, points: 6)

Pakistan’s win over South Africa has made its path to the finals a much steadier one. A win over Ireland next Saturday will seal the deal, but even if it loses, West Indies would need a large win over UAE to sneak ahead on NRR.

With both matches to take place just hours apart on either side of the Tasman, the pool stage is set for an exciting finish.

Finishing third would most likely set up a clash with Australia in Adelaide, while the team which finishes fourth in Pool B will play New Zealand in Wellington.

Ireland

(Played 5, won 3, lost 2, points: 6)

Ireland has had a strong World Cup to date and has one match left up its sleeve coming into the final week of pool matches.

A win against Pakistan will be enough to finish third or fourth. Ireland would also be safe if it loses to Pakistan and West Indies were upset by UAE. After losing to India today, a defeat to Pakistan and a win to the Windies against UAE will see Ireland finish fifth thanks to its poor NRR; a result of the thrashing at the hands of South Africa and narrow wins against UAE and Zimbabwe.

West Indies

(Played 5, won 2, lost 3, points: 4)

West Indies have shown they can be very good or they can struggle during their first five matches. After starting the tournament with a disappointing four-wicket loss to Ireland, they followed up by thrashing Pakistan.

A big win over Zimbabwe, led by Chris Gayle’s 215, followed, before they were smashed by the Proteas in Sydney three days later. A disappointing batting performance and subsequent loss to India in Perth followed.

However, West Indies’ last remaining match is against UAE and they can still make the play-offs. If Ireland lose their match against Pakistan and the Windies beat UAE, the quarter finals beckon due to their superior NRR.

In a less likely scenario, the Windies could also make it on NRR if they beat UAE and Pakistan lose to Ireland, but big margins would be needed on either side for it to happen.

Zimbabwe

(Played 5, won 1, lost 4, points: 2)

Zimbabwe’s loss to Pakistan was a major blow to its hopes of making the knock outs and the loss to Ireland on Saturday made it a done deal. Zimbabwe can try and salvage some pride by upsetting India in its final match of the tournament.

United Arab Emirates

(Played 4, won 0, lost 4, points: 0)

United Arab Emirates has played five matches for three losses, but the Associate team can at least be happy in the knowledge it was more than competitive in its first two matches.

It can also have a say in the final make-up of the top four, as upset wins against either South Africa or West Indies would cause havoc in the quarter-final scenarios.

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