THIS is ingenuous. PML-N has been asked so many times to prove the fairness of the 2013 general polls. Now it has been offered an opportunity to vindicate itself through a simple act: by refraining from rigging a forthcoming election in Gilgit-Baltistan.

The idea has come from the ever-innovative PPP, which, in 2009, gave Gilgit-Baltistan its legislative council, ending the period of direct rule by the centre. Among its other services to democracy, PPP has been all along going out of its way to allow best friend Mian Nawaz Sharif to prove his commitment to the cause of coexistence.

However, PPP’s Khursheed Shah, the leader of the opposition in the National Assembly, is not all that pleased with the Valentine Day gift that his party received from the PML-N government. He has registered his displeasure over the appointment of a PML-N minister as governor of Gilgit-Baltistan and his PPP colleague Senator Farhatullah Babar has rightly called the appointment of Barjees Tahir, who happened to be the federal minister looking after Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan, as mysterious.

Nawaz Sharif is not quite the same man who would knock politely before entering PPP’s territory in Sindh.

There have been protests, of course apart from the singularly serious one where a group of oppressed journalists let out a loud complaint about congestion at the venue where Governor Tahir was sworn in. There have been the usual reminders about the region’s desire to ally itself with Pakistan at the time of Partition and the PPP workers have been out in the street. The angrier amongst them warn of a Balochistan-like situation developing there.

What would PML-N now be required to do to pass Khursheed Shah’s fairness test? Obviously, the ideal answer for PPP would be one which takes it back in the GB council in a majority. Anything short of that would, according to Mr Shah’s logic, bring the election in GB as well as the general election in the country held in 2013 into disrepute. This is a very tough ask. Notwithstanding PPP’s ability to hold anyone accountable here, PML-N is destined for failure here.

Khursheed Shah is asserting the right to coexist in terms of PPP’s hold on certain territories in the country. This theory means that while PPP extends PML-N support in the name of democracy, the Sharif camp must reciprocate by respecting PPP’s right to govern in its strongholds.

Mr Asif Zardari’s party has been trying to assert that right in Sindh, and Mr Shah’s claim on Gilgit-Baltistan is a continuation of the same argument. PPP claims GB just not on the basis of its calculations about its popularity in the area; it appears to be asking for it in return for its valiant support to PML-N for the grand cause of establishing a democratic order.

Until a few months ago, all this noise would have sounded as being aimed simply at making a splash in public. Remember there are deals to be struck in the coming Senate election and these are times to hedge the bets. But both Mr Zardari and Mr Shah have been around long enough to know that PML-N would be mindful not to ‘overcompensate’ them for the political risks they have taken by tightly tailing their party as appendage to the Sharif set-up.

Also this is a changed situation. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is not quite the same man who would knock politely before entering PPP’s territory in Sindh for fear of being taken as an intruder. As public perceptions go, his alliance with the army stands restored in the wake of the current anti-militancy drive that he is widely believed to have, finally, committed himself to.

The restoration allows Mr Sharif some respite — not just in terms of his stand-off with PTI and Imran Khan; it should also make it easier for him to address the demands of his relationship with Mr Zardari. In fact all the prime minister is required to do is to nod his head while the army chief advises the Sindh government on how to run its police to drive the common message home.

As he warns of rigging in Gilgit-Baltistan, opposition leader Khursheed Shah forcefully presses for the Sindh government’s right to fill posts with police officers it deems fit. He is seeking the prime minister’s attention, whereas the prime minister increasingly has other matters and allies to be occupied with.

These new realities place greater pressures on PPP to diversify, quickly. Mr Zardari’s politics has been in dependency mode for far too long, putting all his eggs in the Nawaz Sharif basket. While his PPP has been boastfully offering grand services to the system at some cost, public perceptions have the party taking a course where it has knowingly and willingly settled for a sharp decline in its influence.

The old Zardari admirers, or whatever remains of them, will now again be watching closely how much and what portions of the Senate his genius can secure for his party. That would be a spectacle of some merit, but no matter how many marks Mr Zardari scores in the Senate, he would be doing his party a real favour if he were to realise that his real vocation lay in Sindh.

PPP in Sindh is exposed to many challenges other than the one posed by the joint intervention in its government’s working by the prime minister and his army chief. There are signs of rebellion in the ranks that cannot be dispelled by an odd Tweet by Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari. The loyalists would play down reports of a widening rift, but these are powerful enough rumours to adversely affect a party that has found it impossible to do anything to counter its image — that of a group of people incapable of establishing a half efficient government. In the circumstances, tasking the region with some kind of a revival would be too heavy a burden for Gilgit-Baltistan to carry.

The writer is Dawn’s resident editor in Lahore.

Published in Dawn, February 20th, 2015

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