Drowned out by all the hoopla and noisy love-fest that accompanied President Obama’s recent visit to India was the sound of tectonic plates shifting. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s blatantly obvious schmoozing of his American guest would have been embarrassing for many Indians had it not been for its popularity across the country.

By signing up to the new US-led alliance being forged in Asia to contain China, India has abandoned its decades-old policy of non-alignment. Indeed, Jawaharlal Nehru had been one of the principal architects of the Non-Aligned Movement that included many Third World countries wishing to stay neutral between the two superpowers during the Cold War.

Given India’s close ties with the Soviet Union and its aggressive behaviour in the region, many in Pakistan questioned its credentials as a flag-bearer of pacifism. Nevertheless, non-alignment remained the lodestar of New Delhi’s foreign policy for decades. However, after the collapse of the USSR, NAM died a natural death, and India’s foreign policy lost its mooring.

With the release of the country’s entrepreneurial energies, and its rapid rise as an economic power, India’s aspirations to play a bigger role on the world stage have grown. But for years, it has punched much below its weight. One reason is that both the old-school BJP leaders and Congress were firmly wedded to India’s non-aligned past. It has taken somebody with Modi’s modernising drive and his disregard for old verities to embrace the US in an enthusiastic bear-hug.

For many, there is a major contradiction between Modi’s extreme vision of Hindu nationalism and his desire to drag India into the 21st century. His recent pronouncements on the wonders of ancient Hinduism’s breakthroughs in stem cell research and its early use of aeroplanes have raised eyebrows around the world. And we remember all too well how he stood by and permitted the massacre of thousands of Muslims when he was chief minister of Gujarat. Many wonder how this seemingly reactionary, superstitious man can simultaneously be a moderniser. But however he reconciles these contradictions, it is clear that Modi is a man on a mission.

Just as the United States once drew Turkey, Iran and Pakistan into CENTO, a pact designed to contain the Soviet Union, it is now putting together a de facto alliance of Japan, Thailand, South Korea, the Philippines and other Asian states to serve as a counterweight to an increasingly assertive China. India, with a long-festering border dispute with its giant neighbour, has a clear strategic interest in joining this group.

None of this is to suggest that we are witnessing the emergence of another cold war: the world is now far more integrated today, thanks to globalisation. China is America’s most important trading partner, and holds over a trillion dollars worth of US treasury bills. Similarly, it trades extensively with all countries in the region. Thus, an old-style ‘cordon sanitaire’, or security cordon, would be difficult to impose, apart from being economically infeasible.

To get India to come on board, the US has dangled the prize of access to nuclear technology and uranium suppliers. Although already on offer, the deal had been long moribund under the previous Congress government due to legal, financial and environmental concerns. Now, it seems the Modi broom will sweep all these objections aside.

Most Indians, apart from liberal, leftish objectors, seem comfortable with this major reset in Indian policy. For the ‘India Shining’ crowd, the nuclear deal and Obama’s charm offensive are both evidence of a belated recognition of their country’s diplomatic, military and political power. And Obama’s promise to support Indian entry to the exclusive permanent membership of the UN Security Council is icing on the cake.

In the zero-sum game of Indo-Pak relations, all this is clearly bad news for Pakistan. Over the years, our foreign office has insisted on parity for Pakistan as outside powers deal with the subcontinent. This cornerstone of our foreign policy has eroded as India’s importance in the world has increased, while Pakistan’s position has gone into meltdown with jihadi terrorism threatening the state, and posing a danger to the rest of the region.

But as China is threatened with encirclement, Russian isolation makes the two countries natural allies. Faced with real and perceived threats emanating from Washington, Moscow and Beijing are reaching out to each other. The huge gas deal between the two countries signals the beginning of closer cooperation. If the ongoing nuclear talks between Iran and the US break down, and the latter intensifies its sanctions, Tehran, too, might enter this defensive anti-US grouping.

However, the reality is that American military power still reigns supreme. The Pentagon spends more on its military than almost the rest of the world put together. China, although it has overtaken the United States’ economy in terms of purchasing power parity, remains a developing country with large pockets of poverty. Its military still lacks the capability to project power far from its shores. It will be years before it attains the technological sophistication of the American armed forces.

Meanwhile, Pakistan remains dependent on the US for the supply of spare parts for its American weapons systems, as well as for modern arms of all kinds. So its options will remain limited as it tries to retain a defensive capability in the face of growing Indian might.

At the end of the day, the lesson is that until we can put our house in order politically and economically, and end the extremist threat we have been indifferent to for so long, we will remain bit players on the world stage.

Published in Dawn February 9th , 2015

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