From the same page to the same table?

Published March 6, 2014
Irfan Siddiqui (L) and Maulana Samiul Haq. — File photo
Irfan Siddiqui (L) and Maulana Samiul Haq. — File photo

THE government-Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan talks are now becoming an unending soap opera with its interminable twists and turns.

The latest one came on Wednesday with the reports that while the two committees in their latest meeting had set the stage for some jaw-jaw, the government committee wants itself disbanded and a new one formed to carry out the second phase of the negotiations.

If the reports are to be believed, the new committee will have the PML-N’s peacenik number one, Interior Minister Nisar Ali Khan, as the focal person, along with military officials, representation from the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government as well as the governor of the province.

Background conversations with those close to the government committee reveal that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has more or less agreed to these suggestions and will reconstitute the committee to make it more representative (by including a key person of the federal government and of the KP government which is ruled by a party that is one of the biggest proponents of the talks) as well as the military, which is a stakeholder by all accounts.

He has, goes one rumour, even assured the committee members that he will be able to convince the military to join the new committee instead of observing from the sidelines.

However, the possible inclusion of the military has already become controversial.

Khurshid Shah of the PPP, the leader of the opposition in the National Assembly, opposed the idea on the floor of the assembly on Wednesday morning, calling it “dangerous”.

What the PTI thinks of the suggestion is unclear at the moment; parliamentarian Shafqat Mahmood explained that the party was still to sit down and consider the proposal though he said that his party was in favour of any step that will make the talks “more meaningful” with those who are willing to talk.

But while the political parties have already begun to voice an opinion on the ongoing issue of talks, the army continues to maintain an eerie silence. When asked a military official simply said that the “chief was out of the country and that there had been no formal request for the military’s participation in the talks. The issue will be decided on his return and when and if a request is received”.

However, the current committee is quite certain that its job is now ending.

These suggestions, said a committee member, reflected the general opinion of all the members. Rahimullah Yusufzai, a journalist and member of the government committee, points out, “I had said from the first day that our role was that of facilitators; in addition, we had always pushed for strengthening the committee, making it more effective.”

Someone close to another committee member explained it thus: “The TTP is going to begin negotiations by asking for prisoners to be released, the withdrawal of the military from certain areas and other such conditions. The committee cannot deliver on these demands.”

He did not need to add that the military is the only player that can deliver on these demands. But this is what the committee members meant when they said after the meeting in Akora Khattak that the first phase was over — where a ceasefire has been publicly announced (who cares for minor hiccups such as the attacks in Islamabad and Hangu) and both sides were now ready to talk.

In the second phase, conditions will have to be communicated by both sides and what the TTP will ask for is not a secret and neither is the identity of the institution capable of delivering on them.

But there are a number of reasons why the inclusion of the army on the committee will be problematic.

First and foremost, it will be an official recognition of the imbalance in the civil-military relations in Pakistan. In a working democracy, the army reports to and is subservient to a political government.

Hence, any committee that includes a government representative and reports to the prime minister directly should be able to speak on behalf of the military.

The suggestion made on Wednesday, on the other hand, is based on the recognition that be it Irfan Siddiqui (an unelected official whose presence in the government depends on his ability to keep Sharif happy) or Interior Minister Khan (an elected representative) they cannot make a commitment on behalf of the military because the latter operates independently of the elected government.

However correct this may be, would the PML-N and Sharif like to officially acknowledge this? A third-time prime minister and the first to survive a military coup to return to the parliament, Sharif has so far presented himself as a leader in control of the foreign and security policy. Will he now let this image shatter even if the inclusion of the military to the talks will prove for once and for all that he and the army are on the same proverbial page?

Apart from Sharif’s preferences, the military will also not find this easy to manage. In background conversations, army officers express their discomfort with the government policy to talk to the militants who continue to carry out attacks on the armed personnel without any respite.

On Wednesday itself, an attack in Hangu claimed the lives of six FC soldiers and injured 11 others. And unlike the government, military officials have been arguing for months that despite the different names, organisations and origins, most militant groups are one and the same.

In this context, it is not going to be easy for the military leadership or its representatives to sit across the table from the TTP, so to speak.

Agreed that the military made similar agreements — and equally publicly — in Musharraf’s time.

But it is difficult to find even a retired military officer who is now willing to defend agreements such as Shakai and Sararogha. And the agreements with people such as Hafiz Gul Bahadur are more limited in their scope while ensuring that these militants do not attack the military.

The TTP, on the other hand, has acquired an image far different from Gul Bahadur. It is now seen as the organisation that personifies the existential threat to the country and to the armed forces. Talking to it and that too publicly will earn the military far more ire than it earned Prime Minister Sharif.

After all, if the constituencies of the two are considered, Sharif’s support base has accepted his efforts at peace quietly – so far – but the military leadership’s constituency may find it hard to swallow.

In other words, it could prove to be a big gamble for Chief of Army Staff Raheel Sharif, this early on in his tenure.

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