Dangerous liaisons

Published March 3, 2014

LAST week, the Foreign Office spokesperson caused a stir by questioning the intelligence of legislators critical of Pakistan’s shift on its Syria policy. Following a visit by the Saudi crown prince, Pakistan came out in favour of Bashar al-Assad’s ouster, a realignment to match the kingdom’s stance. Previously, Pakistan’s Syria policy focused on the humanitarian crisis and called for a political resolution to the conflict.

The Foreign Office may think that questioning Pakistan’s decision to abandon its position of neutrality on Syria to side with Saudi Arabia is an indication of stupidity and foreign policy naiveté, but it is in fact a sign of astuteness. Pakistan’s relationship with Saudi Arabia has always lacked transparency, been defined by subservience on the Pakistani side, and resulted in intense domestic challenges, not least of which are radicalisation, growing sectarian strife, and a national identity crisis. Cheap oil and the occasional Saudi handout are somehow meant to compensate for this fallout.

This is a bilateral relationship that deserves to be interrogated, particularly at this crucial juncture when Pakistan is grappling with the internal Taliban threat, playing its final hand in the Afghanistan endgame, and starting to question the wisdom of its security policies that for too long have relied on religious rhetoric and jihadis.

Given that Pakistan’s moment of reckoning is unfolding against the backdrop of a fragmenting Middle East, the public deserves to know what the kingdom is asking of Pakistan in terms of its domestic and foreign policies and military use.

While legislators have rightly taken up the issue of Pakistan’s Syria policy shift, they have not asked more pertinent and urgent questions about Pakistan’s position vis-à-vis Iran. Even those with the lowest intelligence levels know that alignment with the Saudis leads to estrangement with Iran.

It is not surprising that Pakistan’s pro-Saudi Syria shift comes at a time when Pakistan-Iran relations are strained: trouble has been brewing around the pipeline project, which has stalled as each side blames the other for failing to fulfil obligations regarding project financing and implementation. The recent suicide attack outside the Iranian consulate in Peshawar, and prickly exchanges following the abduction and transfer to Pakistan of five Iranian border guards in February have also not helped matters.

As ready as the Foreign Office is to lecture legislators on foreign policymaking, it must be aware that this is not the time to isolate Iran for several reasons. Sectarian violence is already soaring in Pakistan, and a return to the proxy sectarian wars of the 1990s between Saudi Arabia and Iran would ravage the country. A governmental shift towards one side could lead to further radicalisation and weaponisation of the other, particularly at a time when the Middle East is dividing along sectarian lines.

Snapping at legislators, the Foreign Office spokesperson last week said that foreign policy should represent national interest. Given that the crippling energy crisis is one of Pakistan’s greatest challenges right now, sidelining Iranian oil and gas supplies to dabble in dubious geopolitics seems like an unwise decision.

Pakistani and Iranian cooperation in Afghanistan is also crucial as the international troop withdrawal deadline approaches. Both countries have a stake in Afghan stability, but also a history of opposition in Afghanistan’s civil war. In the past decade, both countries have sought to increase their influence in Afghanistan by cultivating different constituencies, the Tajiks and Pakhtuns. Working against each other, Pakistan and Iran will only further destabilise the region. But by collaborating and building trust, the two countries could circumvent a return to proxy war in Afghanistan.

Speaking at the Lahore Literary Festival, academic Vali Nasr rightly cautioned Pakistan against being on the wrong side of history. He pointed out that Iran has emerged as one of the more durable powers in a destabilised Middle East. He also said that Iran’s reach had to be taken seriously given that it has demonstrated its ability to support Assad’s regime despite facing international economic sanctions.

The shifting US position towards Iran in light of nuclear negotiations and renewed optimism around a deal is also likely to empower Tehran in the near term. Pakistan would be foolhardy not to accommodate for Iran’s resurgence.

Like a circus acrobat, Pakistan enjoys balancing acts when it comes to its foreign policies: US-China; China-India; India-Afghanistan; Afghanistan-US. We cosy up to one ally when the other is recalcitrant, finagle gifts from one when the other is tight-fisted, and elicit kind words from one side when the other is blunt. Few of these balancing acts have as serious implications for Pakistan’s security and social fabric as the Iran-Saudi dynamic. Pakistan would be wise to perform well, with a safety net in place.

The writer is a freelance journalist.

Twitter: @humayusuf

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