AT the start of this summer, electricity crisis reached alarming proportions with a record shortfall of around 6,000 MW in the national grid. This has resulted in large-scale and frequent power loadshedding countrywide that persists for 8-12 hours a day on a regular basis in some areas, even going up to 18 hours.

Sadly, nothing concrete is being done by the government. Taking a “serious note” of the situation, President Zardari has asked for a roadmap to overcome the crisis. Prime Minister Gilani says the government is taking steps to overcome power shortages.

Minister for Water and Power Naveed Qamar promises that the issue of loadshedding would be resolved “any time soon.” Now, the Council of Common Interests (CCI) has been entrusted to work out a strategy to address the persisting problem.

At best, some cosmetic measures like that of conservation of energy are being been taken that had not worked in the past and would not bring any significant improvement either.

The worse power crisis of recent times can be attributed to poor governance. Circular debt somehow remains unresolved, swelling into hundreds of billions of rupees. Lacklustre performance, mismanagement and inefficiencies of the utility companies are well known.

In spite of tall claims by Pepco/Wapda, people see no sign of respite in near future. In fact, power generation capacity is not the problem since total installed capacity for power generation today is 21,690 MW at national level.

Out of this, Pepco/NTDC system has gross installed capacity of 19,277 MW. Due to de-ration, the net dependable capacity works out to be 16,636 MW, taking into consideration seasonality of hydropower stations, whereas current demand is around 15,000 MW. Most of the thermal power plants are however not operating at potential net capacity due to a variety of factors, but primarily because of fuel shortage.

Furnace oil-based power generation of 1,600 MW is not available, whereas gas-based power plants of additional cumulative capacity of 700 MW are not operative. Neither Pepco nor the IPPs could arrange for the alternate fuel to run these units.

All the IPPs are dual-fuel fired, which means that gas operated units can immediately be switched over to furnace oil in case of non-availability of gas, and vice versa. The idea of rented power plants as a short- term solution to meet power shortfalls has not worked, as these of about 1,000 MW capacity are old and inefficient.

These RPPs have been able to add a nominal 62 MW to 115 MW to the national grid since November 2010. Electricity made available to the system is in the range of 10,000 MW to 11,000 MW against demand of about 15,000 MW-16,000 MW, and growing day by day.

Addition of power generation capacity through the upcoming new projects can narrow the power deficit to some extent but not significantly, as demand is growing fast. During June 2011, peak demand is projected at the level of 21,000 MW. Wapda's Khan Khwar hydropower project of 72 MW has started trial operations this month.

Fauji Mari Power of 177 MW is scheduled to achieve commercial operations within a few months. The other projects to supply disperse power to national grid by end of this year are Bhikki (Halmore) of 209 MW and HUBCO Narowal of 214 MW capacity. Nuclear power plant CHASNUPP-2 of 325-MW gross capacity would be connected to national grid in December this year.

But then, no major power plant, thermal or hydro, would come on stream in the years 2012 and 2013, except the two medium-sized hydropower projects--- Allai Khwar of 121 MW in February 2012 and Duber Khwar of 130 MW in December 2012. Ironically, these projects were originally scheduled to generate electricity in 2007-08.

The under-construction Jinnah hydropower project has been delayed, commissioning of which was scheduled in February 2010. Likewise, completion of under-construction 425-Nandipur (Gujranwala) and 525-MW Chichoki Mallian (Sheikhupura) thermal power plants, which scheduled to be commissioned during 2010-11, has been delayed by at least another two years.

Plans for developing alternate energy have also failed, as the government was able to add only a negligible 3-MW wind power to the system. There is no physical progress on utilisation of Thar coal for commercial power generation. Apparently in a desperate bid, the government plans to purchase power from external sources, such as the CIS countries and India, which is not feasible.

Thus, overcoming power shortage is not likely to be seen in coming years under the given conditions of fuel shortage and flawed policies of the government. What we really need is a structural resolution to the energy crisis so as to sustain economic and industrial activities, employment and social stability.